Member Info for Andrew4444

Steve

I agree that we are ramping up small HR production, and GF and BE figures may be better than Q4s, but Q1 for alluvial production, is always the lowest of the 4 quarters (rains), so I would be amazed if we still see the steady increase in income next release that we have seen all of the last 12 months.

I would think Q1would be less than $1m?? The very lengthy release in figures may also imply a reduction or poor quarter?

Q2 could well be the best ever or very near Q4s figures

I would not be surprised if CB did we he did before and released two quarters very close to each other. Average / poor Q1 followed by very good Q2s. That 3 months gap of news release made into 2 weeks :)

You also need to take off 32% corporation tax (thats the rate in Moz)

So, for alluvials + small HR, thats $1.32M a year = $110K a month = £88K free cash flow a month.

CB said FB will be making same profit in a month as alluvials make in a quarter. That looks a little low to me and by my calcs we will be getting £350K a month from FB FCF. So £400K to £450K a month FCF from all of manica.

Yesterday, CB said we will be getting $600K to $900K a month after expenses and that was from all of manica.

Taking the mid point as $750K a month = £600K a month = £408K a month FCF after expenses AND corporation tax so in the £400K to £450K range.

When CB quotes these figures he understandably is not taking off corp tax which is 32% in Moz, so the headline figures seem better (then what FCF will be).

£450K FCF a month (£400k Min £500K Max) will be transformational. Even if the market doesn't realise it :)

It was a much more measured and circumspect interview. As some have said - more professional. The question is - is that because CB has now changed his approach or because he's trying to row back on his previous very bullish comments?

I said recently that it would just as telling what he doesnt say as does. No mention now of the 2mt or target date for open pit model. Using CBs poker analogy, the positive spin on this would be that hes holding his cards close to his chest. May be.

Again very little info on Eureka. Its always about to go into production or going to contribute to income soon.

The good news, and news that we can be sure about, is that FB will be in production very soon and by August income levels will be substantially higher.

IMHO Prospects are very good over next 6 months, but it remains to be seen if they will be as good as we were all led to believe earlier in the year.

With no RNS this morning, unfortunately we wont be getting any juicy bits of info in the interview today. At least lets hope CB offers some clarity on a few issues and Phil and Kev have pressed him a bit more than Zak with his one question at the start " So Colin hows it going"

I would love CB to do an interview with Matthew Gordon at Crux Investor. I can see why CB may not want to :)

Joe

Agreed. But the article was not about when we will start production but the area becoming more mining friendly.

CB could be deliberately delaying production at Eureka until 2030 knowing the copper price will be $15K + by then :)

By that year, we should be very near declaring 2mt copper at RC...should be imminent infact :)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/investors-are-rushing-back-into-africa-s-copper-country

What’s changed? In Zambia, new President Hakainde Hichilema is going out of his way to woo investors and repair relations damaged by his predecessor. He says he wants to triple copper output in the next decade, an ambitious target that would require $30 billion of investments, according to analysts at BMO Capital Markets.

More broadly, there’s a growing awareness that copper and cobalt are central to the world’s shift toward renewable energy, and security of supply will become crucial in the coming decades. The global copper market is already tight and new mines are difficult to find.

"- I'd suggest it's more like a couple of months before they even start."

This could be correct but due as much to funding?? If we are going to do more drilling now, for whatever the reason, I would rather we waited until we started to get the FB money, than go now and have to do a raise. Obviously that's assuming we need FB money soon, which we may not.

Lets hope CB gives us a bit more info in the interview on Tuesday rather than many of us just having to guess.

It may be just as telling what he doesnt mention in the interview as what he does. If there is no mention of open pit model or time scales or 2mt (all of which he has been keen to talk about previously) then this may give us a clue.

That said, Id rather he stopped giving clues though and just gave us clarity and the facts !

"Interpreting the clues" may well make a TV good quiz show, but I dont want the head of a company to play it with shareholders :)

"it would be that if racecourse is ‘not’ economic, another pit at ascot is not going to make racecourse any more economic"

This could be true, but I really hope not. I wonder what Iceberg thinks?

Using Howzap very good point of the type of person you are, this view would definitely make someone a "glass half empty" person :)

Unless of course its correct!

“So the clues are certainly there to be ‘interpreted’ that more extensive exploration was always going to happen beyond the original phase 2 objective from maybe an extended phase or a third phase”

Howzap

I'm surprised you are now say more extensive exploration was always going to happen.

Just a couple of few weeks ago, in the sale v exploration thread, you said we wont be putting 5 or 6 more holes into other areas to explore more as CB wants to get to the 2mt soon and have a quick sale.

The lack of clarity by CB enables many different views to be credible. However sure anyone is that their view is correct, and the other person is wrong., we are all guessing until CB tells us more. And I don’t mean with clues !

And trying to "interpret his clues" can make fools of us all :)

“The second pit at Ascot is required to make the economics attractive ?”

Flipper

Is it though?

Imho This is the main question and despite some giving the impression they know the answer, I don’t think anyone really does know for sure. Apart from CB.

It could be that CB is pretty sure further drilling at RC south extension will get us over the 2mt line but wants to see what’s at Ascot first - because it looks promising from the few assay results. Alternatively, maybe we need Ascot to help get us over the line?

Whatever the reason, it does now appear that there has been a re think / change of plan as his previous comments were “Not a death by a 1000s lashes / its not a colander / 2mt open pit model will be completed by end of May +1 month latest. That’s of course unless he meets his original timescales and targets in the next few weeks. Unlikely imho

As for the low sp valuation. I think, its due to lack of trust that the market has in CB to deliver . what he has said he would. That said, I’m sure we will soon start to get confirmation of significant events via RNS and the market will then believe. Obviously not just re Bushranger but African assets as well

The question is, will the news be as good as we all hoped for? So will the market take the sp to 10p, 20p or 30p+

I have no idea, but I’m sure its going much higher than current sp over the next 6 months.

Patience (copywrite Captain Bob !)

Aeris

I think your analysis is probably correct. It would appear that plan A was to get the 2mt from RC , drill a few holes in Ascot to show the buyer that there was something there to add a bit more value – then sell.

This is why CB said it wont be a death by a thousand lashes, “its not a colander” and gave a target of end of May (+1 latest) for completion.

It seems that we haven’t got the 2mt from RC yet so we are having to do a lot more drilling than planned at Ascot to get us over the line.

In addition, he has now gone quiet in his interviews with any reference to RC 2mt or open pit model date.
It does all seem to me that target has not been met yet and more drilling, and time, is now required. As you say, they have had to have a re think and go for Plan B.

Of course the alternative more optimistic view is that CB has got the 2mt, or knows he can get it as is very close,, and he’s keeping it under his sleeve for now and playing it all down by not declaring anything yet. This gives us time to add more value at Gold rich Ascot before 2mt declared. Early July big announcement 2mt, open pit model + bonus value at Ascot.

If there is no news on RC 2mt or model by Mid July latest then I think it would be likely the more pessimistic view is correct.

We shall see...in about 4 or 5 weeks !

AIMHO

"I don’t think it’s a case of wether or not what Colin says is believable, but more understanding how to interpret it"

Not too sure how there is much interpretation on timescales given tbh

I think we will have to agree to disagree :)

I guess people see things in different ways.

Howzap

I dont think Bushranger has fallen short of his expectations (yet) as CB's deadline re RC has not gone nor his 2mt target failed.

Thats why I have said the Jurys out on RC.

That said, LTHs may have a few more previous examples that they could use as supporting evidence :)

I think your use of the word "Disciples" is more appropriate than you realise :)

CB is not the messiah, but at times he can be a very naughty boy !

When I read Icebergs comment “That said he's (CB) been very good in not giving false hope for manica” I did think.
I hope Gixxer doesn’t read that :)

It does seem that some take what CB says in interviews very seriously and believe it – which is fair enough, but when things don’t happen as he has stated then they think – “well he said it in an interview so you cant hold him to it.”

Quite understandably, the market doesn’t seem to believe CBs forward guidance or comments. If it did then I think we would have been well over 10p with his comments over the last year. The perverse advantage he have with CB here, is that no future potential has been priced in, so we haven’t had the massive sp collapse when some of what CB says doesnt happen in full or in part. A steady fall back yes but not a collapse.

We are extremely derisked because of that IMHO.

CB seemed perplexed some time ago when the sp wasn’t rising and he said “the market wants me to show em the money, well I’ve done that” . No he hadn’t. He’d given a lot of great projections and shown some great asset potential. The market wants more than that because of CBs previous” false dawns”.

Showing the market “the money” would be declaring we have 2mt at RC and producing the open pit model. Or confirming FB is in production. All done in an RNS.

The market will then actually believe what CB says and respond accordingly imho

IWTO

Over the many years I've been here, there have been many examples of such inconsistency - some may even say deception.

IMHO A lot of what CB says is motivated more by hope and possibility, rather than realism. But the way he words things, he implies there is a greater chance of good things happening than there really is imho.

CB says that's him being "overly optimistic at times" hmmm.

In 6 -8 weeks time we will know how true, or otherwise, his comments, in many interviews, were re 2mt and completion of RC conceptual open pit model.

Lucky

I would think that if anyone did anything as astute / complete mad, as my suggestion, then they would be using fully electric trucks to move the load. Not just because of cost but with ESG etc, the regional authorities would not want so many ICE trucks polluting the region continuously 12 hours a day 7 days a week.

Just a thought.....but CB keeps referencing Cadia Rideway mine and comparing the similarities. Looking at a map, that mine is just over an hours drive away on very good tarmac roads.

If Newcrest bought this, wouldnt it be feasible to use their processing plant at Cadia and thereby reduce the need for any capex re plant construction?? Obviously AA have first refusal but if its less then 2mt and / or they dont want it, surely cadia would be interested with zero plant capex required?? They should still make a decent profit due to the fact that the processing plant already in place - therefore we should still get a good price even if mt is not what we thought it was going to be.

Of course there would be extraction costs and some capex but I would think the processing plant capex would be by far and away the greatest cost - which would reduce to zero in this case.

For those more informed about these things than me, I may be talking rubbish and have over simplified things, but it does look like a sensible possibility (imho) due to Cadia's location and type of mine?

Iceberg is probably reading this post and laughing out loud at my naivety :)

I did say it was just a thought :)

I think the Jury's still out on whether we do have / will have the 2mt from RC. Could be that CB thinks hes got it - so focusing now on Ascot. If no RC open pit model by mid July very latest, then I guess we know the answer.

If I had to make a call now, then I would be closer to Johnswan's view. I think it more likely CB was trying to dampen expectation with his 20y x 20mt comment as he may now know hes been far too optimistic with his previous comments.

As I say, jury still out until mid July imho so it could go either way but even if the news is not what we all hoped for and 20p is unachievable (I'm not saying that is the case btw) , there is still plenty of upside here with African assets + Bushranger.

Of course AIMHO.

Sunday Roast guy who does interviews with CB has posted this:

"Kevin Hornsby: Had encouraging chat with Colin lots happening, lots of revenue due and podcast out at latest Tuesday. Enjoy the Jubilee everyone"

"I get where you are coming from but still think your worse case scenario is far too bleak"

HI Steve

I think you're focusing too much on the valuation, not the underlying point I was making. OK I'll change the worst case scenario to 15p :)

If you consider that still too bleak, and it may be, that just reinforces my original point that there is still tremendous value here with, whatever, worst case scenario is picked (unless its less than current sp !).

For what its worth (probably nothing) I am still sticking to my 25p to 40p for a realistic buy-out valuation.