Member Info for Andrew4444

"But probably best not to listen to podcasts anymore other than for fun and rely on Empress for the factual information"

The problem with that statement..... is that it's true:)

So dont believe what our ex chairman says in interviews but rely on info / updates (re FB) from another company !

I dont think this drop has anything to do with the release of the yearly accounts yesterday. There wasnt am immediate drop or loads of sells on the opening bell. It looks highly likely its the drop in POC that has spooked some .

Fundamentals are unchanged and we have alot of income coming by October.

Steve4077

I don’t think it’s fair to say LTH are “fixated” on them (missed deadlines etc) but you yourself have correctly stated that CB is not going to change at his age. I agree. So his personal character traits will not change, so if he has in the past been overly optimistic and missed deadlines and targets then I think it quite possible he could do the same again.

This is not just about deadlines though its about believing everything CB says in interviews. In short, I think LTH, from their experience here, are just cautioning some not to believe everything CB says all the time.

If some want to characterize that as being “fixed” or deramping then that’s up to them.

Howzap

Your 8.22am post was silly, provocative and condescending. I thought you were better than that tbh.

I notice the reference to LLLTH such as me and “10p FFS” comment. A deliberate attempt to mischaracterise what I said. My 10p comment was my absolute worst case, as I clearly stated, and not my expectation. I’ve said many times I think buy out will be 20p+ and still do.

So much for your post 2 days ago when you said all views are valuable :)

This has been a great board over the years because alternative views have been respected. It has not turned into many other Aim BB with a brexit type debate where the alternative view is not just wrong, but so wrong that it can be insulted. Such as saying the other view is unresearched or they just don’t understand!

You seem to try to discredit any view which does not fit with your narrative of “everything is great and nothing can go wrong and if you disagree you’re a deramper” .

For the sake of both of our mental health, I think we should just filter each others posts. I suggest you do the same with my posts, as some of my posts may annoy you when they don’t conform to your view of the world !

Lincolnite

Apologies. In that case it could still be today.

SteveM

Careful. You may get accused of being a deramper with a post like that :)

Of course, what you are saying is correct, but I still think this has been massively derisked at the current sp. A few months ago I said that the min sp I could see was 10p - very worst case. You said that you thought that was far too low even at worst case. So you must think that the sp will more than double from here? (Assuming you hold the same view as you did 2 months ago)

Even with my very pessimistic 10p worst case - the sp doubles. It remains to be seen if this does do as well as I and many others think (20p+), but I believe the sp has a 99% chance of doubling in the next 12 months (obviously likely to be more than double).

There are not many co on Aim that many would say that about.

Unless they are released tomorrow (I assume they wont be today as they are released at 7am), then it would appear AndyM is correct when he said that CB could be taking advantage of the 2 month delay option.

If so we may not get the final results until late August and the AGM will also be delayed until then. We should know for sure by 7.05 am tomorrow !

Howzap

With respect, I think you are over thinking and over analysing what I’m saying.

I agree with you that the projects are different, and Bushranger is different to the African assets, but CB’s personal character traits are not different. So he is just as likely to over promise in what he is saying now, as before. As Steve 4077 said

“ All I am saying is we all KNOW that CB is terrible at setting target dates. He almost always misses the dates he sets because he is too optimistic. He is 78ish so he is not going to change”

I think this will do well over the next 6 to 12 months, and CB’s optimistic forward guidance and missed timescales may well be seen as just an irritation, but I would caution anyone one takes the view:

“ We know what’s going to happen and when because CB has said so in an interview”

In short, that was my point.

"It’s fair to say that some LTH have this blinkered view, Fairbride has driven a wedge of mistrust and lowering expectations"

Only someone who is new here would say that. LTH scepticism, or (should that be blinkered view) ! is not just down to delays in FB, but due to many other issues over the years such as:

Initial Alluvial production estimates by CB of 20K oz a year
Alluvial timescales
Moz Gold fiasco
Eureka timescales (Sept 2021 ore is about to be loaded on the lorries for processing)
Kalengwa timescales
And many other issues I've forgotten about

If it were only due to just FB delays !

The blinkered view comment is appropriate. But it appears more appropriate to those who started investing here about 18 months ago :)

Having been here about the same time as Gixxer, I would say the problem with CB is not that you can't believe anything he says (that would make things too simple) its that you can't believe everything he says. The trick is to try and work out which parts are true or not. And I know that's difficult and that we shouldn't have to do that.

Take Fairbride for example. He has delivered on that. A great result. But not in the pathway he said. And we had the "cough" "misunderstanding" of when the SA borders would re open.

Most know, or should do by now, that CBs time scales are unreliable (either made-up or too optimistic) and yes we should ignore them, but I bet the next time he gives a timescale or expectation, most on here will be referencing back that timescale or figure and not ignoring it - even those who have acknowledged CB's timescales and guidance are unreliable.

Unfortunately most tend to believe what they want to believe. Life can be much better like that,, until reality hits us :)

Just incase that all sounds negative and a deramp, I'm still expecting a buy-out of 20p min, but now not until H1 2023. And I havent sold any of my holding.

Re this End of May timescale.

I thought CB was very disingenuous in his last interview re the “end of May” timescale. He implied that he didn’t know why some thought we would have a sale by end of May and that this was completely unrealistic. I don’t think anyone was expecting a sale by end of May, but we did think that the open pit model and possibly 2mt would be announced by end of May (June latest), .......because that is what CB said !

He even emphatically said, in early interviews that “I’m not going to miss my timescale on this one” (this one being open pit model). And then he has the front to imply shareholder thought the end of May timescale was for the sale. No we didn’t, we thought it was for what you said it was CB – open pit model!

No one asked CB for and end of May timescale for the open pit model to be completed. That was his unilateral time scale and specifically referring to the open pit model. He didn’t meet his own timescale and then implied it was shareholders who decided on this unrealistic timescale for the sale not resource model!.

He does seem to be able to get away with a lot in these "interviews" (sic) that he gives.

I think those figures James, are much more realistic than others I've seen before.

One minor point. It looks like you are expecting Alluvial income to continue for 1.5 years. I believe CB has said they will finish in a year from early this year, or by end of this year, so we may only have 6 months, maybe 9 months left.

If I convert your figures to gross income (not profit) per year in $, I make it about $1M gross a month : $12M a year gross.

Last month I calculated the yearly gross figure as $10M to $12M a year , excluding Eureka, as I had no idea how much that would contribute and moreover when. So our figures are similar.

"With copper coming off the boil, has the opportunity to sell Bushranger (short term) been missed?"

According to CB the earliest a plant could be built is 8 years for this scale. And that would be quick ,he said. So I can't see how the POC at todays price would be that important to future sale value. In addition, the LOM will be 25 years min (from 8 years out) so the anticipated POC in circa 2030 to 2055 is what will be important.

I think it will be substantially higher then due to Green revolution and EV requirements.

Commodity prices are much more significant for current production. If there is a 12 to 18 month global recession then POG (and POS) will most likely go much higher as a safe haven asset and store of value.

As we are a Gold miner who is now in production, that may well benefit us.

Thanks James

If you can't make sense of the numbers then i doubt anyone can !

Andy

Thanks for your thoughts.

Yes you could be correct. there could have been some sort of "adjustment" to compensate errors made last time. So the question is what will the % cut be next quarter for hard rock? Has the adjustment finished ?

As you say "It really feels to me that the format of the quarterly gold report is no longer fit for purpose".

Its hard enough predicting income when there are some constants, but when the % cut changes its all guess work !

Worth remembering what CB has said about alluvial / small hard rock production recently. He said that he thinks production will be about 25kg to 30 kg a quarter. Now he’s not known for under promising and overdelivering, as can be seen by the recent results which were less than his predicted 25kg a quarter. So I think its fair to say his 30kg high figure will be the highest possible amount in a quarter and not exceeded. 30kg is 2892 troy ounces.

So far, the best quarter we have had re production and costs per ounce, was q4 2021 at 2306 oz. If we up lift that amount to 2892 we get an income of just over $1.7M. Unless CB has started to be overly pessimistic in his predictions or POG is going over $2K, that will be the most income we will get in a quarter imho. And that will most likely be in Q3. I know Q4 was best quarter last year but Q3 is usually the best quarter.

My best guess on other quarters would be Q2 $1.4M, Q4 1.5M and Q1 (23) $1M. This last quarter is difficult to determine as CB has said in early 2022 that alluvials will probably only last another year. So we may not get a full quarter out of Q1 2023. If so it may well be much less at say $500K?

I appreciate these figures may seem low compared to other predictions, but I think they are realistic. More than happy to be proved pessimistically wrong:)

That said, by 1 October (q3) I would think that the alluvial income will not be that important compared to the FB income. By then I suspect alluvial income will be in its last full quarter and seen as no more than a nice “top-up” against an FCF basis and against other income: FB and hopefully Eureka?

Ella

Yes two different contracts but we have always got 28% of alluvial production.

If you take our share of alluvial gold oz from the total we get, then you can see the contribution from small hard rock.

Hard rock production is increasing each quarter, but our cut is going down. Last quarter we got 121 oz from 505 oz (hard rock). This quarter hard rock production was up 60%, but our share was only 34% of last quarter and it should have been 60% higher.

Either we are not getting the usual 28% of alluvial production, or we are not getting the same % of hard rock production.

Overall production was 77% of last quarter, but our income was 57% of last quarter. Unfortunately we cant extrapolate the increase in production with a direct and equivalent correlation with the same % increase of income.

Production Results
The production figures are broadly what I expected but the gold value against those figures seemed low. Looking at the previous % we were getting we have always had 28% of alluvial production. Looking at Q3 and Q4 figures we canb work out the % from hard rock which was circa 22% to 23%.

If we plug in those % figures we should have 383 oz from alluvials (1370 x 28%) and 177 from hard rock (805 x 22%) = 560 oz. However, we have 425 recorded as our cut. If we still get 28% from alluvials (as we have been getting for years), then that means we got 42oz from small hard rock ie 5%

If we had got the usual 28% alluvials and 22% hard rock we would have had 32% more income which would have given us $1.05M. Not far off my $1M prediction.

Have I missed something here and does anyone know why our % cut is lower then in previous quarters? James is on the ball with this type of thing. James any thoughts? Anyone?

My other observation re results is that we have not sold all the gold produced. This must surely indicate we are not that low on immediate funding.

Fairbride.
I find the one liner on this massive news very surprising and bizarre. CB has buried it in another RNS as well. Its almost bordering on the surreal that CB tries to promote the co vigorously with his optimistic predictions and time lines, but when we have actual news – unequivocal fact, he gives it a cursory mention! And news which is the most important news imho that we have had in all the years I’ve been invested here.

My possibly mad theory, but is CB deliberately trying to suppress the sp for some reason? That suggestion may be nonsense but why else give a passing mentioned, hidden in another RNS, about transformational news when hes only too quick to “ shout from the roof tops” any other less significant and moreover possible (not factual) good news.

I also cant get a low value quote on my x-o account. No quote for last 20 mins.

This is rare with my x-o account, not so much with H and L though

Should be:

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