Member Info for Andrew4444

Good post Steve and I agree with your thinking. We can't keep wondering whats over there.. and there ... and then there.

That approach of "showing a bit of thigh (Racecourse)" and with "a bit a glimpse of lacy knicker (Ascot and Footrot)" was exactly what CB said his original intention was - but not with such imagery :)

So the question is, why change the approach? Yes I know CB says its so we dont give a cadia away - but maybe the bit of thigh that we showed the majors was that of a middle aged woman and not as appealing as we thought it would be :)

Maybe we are seeing if ascot is more sexy and can entice them?

If Ascot is more sexy you can under stand why we would want to keep drilling Ascot :)

(I've missed my vocation - I should have been a script writer for the "carry on films" :)

Bezant just released AGM calling notice

Surely we will get an RNS soon?

Today ?

Imminently? :)

"In the Zak team interview from December there was a lot of weight put on visuals from drill core 36, with mineralization from 11mtrs for 100s of metres, but no assays have been released for it."

Yes, 36 looked very promising.

Another example of a news void which could be interpreted in one of two ways. Either CB is keeping this result "close to his chest" as it will reveal too much good news , or despite the high hopes of the visuals, assay results are very disappointing?

The AGM is going to be very interesting and CB will surely have to give some clarity on a number of issues. That's unless we are soon to get that clarity before the AGM?

"I've been a CB investor for about 20% of my life"

I've been a CB investor for 120% of my life - that's how much this has aged me :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxxNbFw9Fbk Oct 2020 interview

While we are waiting for the 2mt to be confirmed and AA to make $500M offer, I had a look back at an old interview CB gave. It was one of his most interesting and informative - talking about all the projects.

CB did it nearly 2 years ago (Oct 2020)

Interview starts with CB at 28 mins

A few observations:

1. POG had risen to $6.7K at the time of the interview and CB expected it to hit $7.5K by next year (Oct 2021) It is that now even after the massive fall. Just shows how high POC has risen over last 2 years.

2. Timeframe stated for FB in production was a year away ie Oct 2021 at $500K to $600K income a month. Same time frame for Eureka at $250K to $300K a month. CB said If that was not achieved by end of 2021 then quote “ I’ve not done my job”

3. He also used the phrase ..”Its not (going to be) a death by a thousand lashes” It ended-up taking 20 months after he used that phrase!

On reflection, I may need to review my original Bushranger sale date of Q1 2023 !

“The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”
? Winston Churchill

"would anyone care to define 'imminently' , please :-)"

It means by 10 August NtM!

As that calling notice date, is the is last date CB would still be able to hold the AGM in August. Three weeks notice required.

The AGM in the next 4 weeks should be interesting (last date to be held with 2 month postponement is end of August).

I think CB will be asked to clarify a few things....... Unless we get the RC model + 2mt before then (stop laughing at the back:))

Thats of course if he doesnt try to delay the AGM past August because he doesnt think that the market conditions are quite right at the moment for an AGM :)

for cuts read lashes, but point is still the same !

It does seem that further drilling will be done.

I've no problem with that, but the question is why? Is it because, as CB has said, we dont want to give away another cadia, or is it because the results are not as good as he has implied they would be and we need to do more drilling?

Also, this statement was worrying

"All results have now been returned from Racecourse which will allow the team to commence the modelling of the Racecourse conceptual open pit "

Commence FFS !!?? I hope he meant continue!

His previous comment that " This wont be a death by a thousands cuts" maybe true, but it looks like its going to be 900 cuts !

“So is it now confidence or disappointment in colins voice? There's definitely a change in his demeanour”

Agreed.

Lately, CB has been much more circumspect in his comments and his tone. Over the years I have been here, CB tends to “come out fighting” when things have not gone well and he has taken the “Boris Johnson” approach of ignoring set backs and looks to the great potential in the future .

So if there had been a set back (tonnage not up to his implications) I would think CB would be ramping things up and talking about all the great other prospects (FB) and how good the future is going to be.

He’s, noticeably, not doing that - even when there is good reason to do so ie FB future income

So on balance, that implies to me he ’s deliberately underplaying the situation as he know what we have and deems that to be a success.

I base this analysis and conclusion on his previous MO, but this attempt at “amateur psychologist” may be incorrect. :)

Gixxer

No reply from CE but the last time I corresponded with him by email was 2 years ago so maybe is changed email or not checked that account? Many years ago he did have a few months off from posting due to work commitments so maybe thats the same situation now?

I doubt he would have sold tbh - unless personal circumstances dictated.

That optimistic "Rose tinted" view could well be correct, but, for balance, there is an alternative view - which I hope is wrong.

It could be that CB's mouth has written a cheque that the results can't cash and he needs more time to find more tonnage to justify his rampy comments over the last 6 to 9 months.

In the past, there's no doubt that Covid caused delays and problems, but it seemed that every delay was put down to Covid. Maybe CB now has the same cover re the commodity crash and he can use the one liner "waiting for the market to turn" to justify any delays in the sale process ?

On balance I believe the reason for the delay is a positive thing so I'm very much in the optimistic camp wearing my rose tinted glasses, but I wouldn't discount the negative view as "nonsense" or as highly unlikely.

https://www.v o x m a r k e t s.co.uk/articles/trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources-31931f5

That said, still a bit low key in narrative but at least a separate RNS.

Looks like CB has been reading this BB :)

My assumptions below are based on previous info and CBs previous interviews:

Possible FB income now assuming $1700 POG

Assuming POG 1700
Production tax (6%) 102
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 702
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 319
Net Profit per ounce 679
Margin % 40

100kg Gold a month = 3200 troy oz
Xtract get 23% = 736 toz
40% margin = net to xtract =294 toz
Monthly profit in $ (assuming $1700)(294 x 1700) $500,000
Monthly profit in £ £414,000 (USING 0.83 conversion)

CB said in an interview about 2 years ago, the margin at FB would be between 40% and 50%. So 40% margin seems reasonable. It would be 42% margin at $1900 POG. In other interviews, when POG was higher, he’s also stated $500K to $600K a month from FB which is also consistent with circa $500k a month.

£414K free cash flow may not be as much as some very optimistic figures I've seen (no doubt gross figures and not FCF) , but that monthly amount CLEAR PROFIT, will be transformational for a company of our current MC.

And if CB actually tells the market, the SP may even rise :)

At current SP, I suspect most xtract shareholders would get out of bed ......and then run a marathon if that is what it took to get an 18p offer now :) I suspect 90% would accept that offer if it were made today against current sp

Unfortunately the sale price will be against what someone is prepared to pay, and not what the BOD want for BR or what they think the valuation should be.

for a bit. 34min 15 seconds in

https://audioboom.com/posts/8122264-the-sunday-roast-featuring-adam-wilson-ceo-of-bens-creek-aim-ben

"They will want to asses a potential acquisition using a copper/gold price set they truly believe in for the lifetime of the mine. If they simply use current depressed prices they risk losing out on highly profitable investments, and lose out to their competitors. If they believe in a future copper price that will be sustainably higher than historic prices due to electrification etc, they will use that price set in their valuation. "

I'm no expert, but that has been my view. I think it passes the common sense and more realistic approach that the major's analysts / financiers would use. Esp as the mine will be in production in the years 2030 to 2060 not anytime soon.

If the POC was say $13K now but everyone thought POC would be sub $8K in the next 10 years and falling, would they really use current $13K as the base price in any buy valuation?

I very much doubt it , not if they wanted to keep their job :)

For what it's worth, Kevin Hornsby ( from the Sunday Roast interviews has said this about CB's radio silence:

"No he doesn’t want to put anything out in this market, nothing bad or sinister happening but I will chat up with him this coming week. Boy this is cheap now !!!"