RE: Life after Bushranger…11 Aug 2022 11:26
"if we come up short, his credibility will be in pieces"
Possibly.
If we are just short of the 2mt, say 1.8mt then I doubt anyone will be wanting to be too critical of CB. Obviously the risk of criticism will increase as the tonnage gets lower.
That said, even at, say, 0.9mt declared, the more forgiving shareholders may take to the view that all CB had done is do what we all know he does - be overly optimist with his predictions and comments. So why be surprised or, moreover, annoyed when someone who is always optimistic is....optimistic!
This would not be my view (if it was just 0.9mt) . If we explained all CBs failures away by using that excuse then CB will never be accountable when results, not matter how bad, did not match forward guidance or predictions.
It is a matter of subjective opinion. Some may take the view that at say, at 1.4mt, CB has been deliberately deceptive and others, at the same tonnage, conclude he's been slightly optimistic.
My own view? As ever the results will very likely be much lower then CBs forward guidance , but good enough to ensure a buy-out at a sp significantly higher that what it is now and good enough to keep most shareholders from being critical of CB.
After a buy-out of say 10p , the different conclusions of a subjective view, that CB had been either: a bit optimistic or very optimistic or deliberately deceptive or a liar - will probably be irrelevant and forgotten about.
Well, that's what CB will be hoping :)
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