Member Info for Andrew4444

Interview - Tuesday 20 Sept

next Tuesday

Kevin Hornsby doing podcast interview with CB on Tuesday morning

Rise due to Q2 results about to be released today or tomorrow??

I'm not a royalist but what a lovely story...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1567894552744271872

"The world economy is in the sh#t on all fronts its best just to put all investments in the bottom drawer and come back in 6 months"

Agreed. Or use this as a buying opportunity if you believe in the fundamentals here and long term prospects?

Unfortunately Joe. my timescale predictions have always been wrong.

My supposed pessimistic timescales have always be proven to be very optimistic !

"They're just...waiting until this is over. And, I don't see much on the horizon that might change."

My previous estimate for buy-out time horizon was Q1/Q2 2023. With what is coming on a world macro level I suspect the commodity market will be very bearish for a year or so. I would be very surprised if CB wanted to do a deal in that environment so we may may have to wait longer for the buy-out.

It would not have surprised me if we drifted down to circa 3p or just below if we had not got the FB first income results due by end of the year. I suspect those pending results will ensure the sp stays at circa 3.5p and put a floor under any drop?

May see a spike to 4.5p to 5p after release of FB first income?

There appear to be many macro events similarities to the 1970s and that saw a bull run in commodities after the storm was over so we may find ourselves in a major bull commodity run in the second half of 2023? I now suspect that's when the buy-out will be.

With FB income we can just sit this out and wait for the optimum time to sell. The only down side is we may have to wait longer than we thought and indeed longer than we wanted to.

Just a thought....CB is 80 in Nov 2023. What a way to bow out:)

Joe

If we did a deal with MMP we could pay half the costs of plant mod and have a higher % of gold share. I'm sure both sides could do the number crunching to work out what the new % could be? I agree its a slightly more complex arrangement but could be done if both parties agreed.

Whatever the new arrangement re cost v profit at mania, I hope we focus on what we know works, in an area we understand and with another company we have been working with.

CB has said many times "If you're looking for Elephants then go and look were Elephants have been found before"

A sensible approach mho.

So why does he need to explore other areas when right under his nose is manica. We know there is a resource there. Only 10% of the licence has been drilled and according to Ed Slowey, CB's Geo, "There is Gold everywhere at manica"

The problem is that it covers all sorts of different mineralisation, Oxide, transition and sulphide. The current plant can only process oxides so why not spend the money on modifying this plant and exploring the other 90% of the licence. CB has said we have the option of 50/50 partnership with MMP with costs split same as profit share ie 50/50.

That seems a much less risk then CB going for another treasure hunt in some other unknown area . Manica would offer very good risk to reward for shareholders.

I suspect CB wont be doing that as that is not sexy enough for him and he really wants the Kudos of another great discovery like Kiwara. He seems happy to take the greater risk for the greater reward esp as time is running out for him.

Lets hope his ego can be satisfied with a big sale of bushranger and the acclaim that that would bring?

And then we can be boring and just develop manica. Or other parts of Bushranger if not all of it sold?

But please no more high risk treasure hunts. Kalengwa is a right off and Eureka has not delivered anything after years of promises.

It look like a buy at 3.75p x 2.1M

£79K buy?? It looks like it.

CB ???

"I think *current* production at Fairbride was stated as 20kg per month by both Colin and Joel. That is increasing over time with full (commercial) production by Nov/Dec."

Lets say Dec before full production.

So that's 20kg a month increase from Sept to Dec (Cb said 100kg a month in full production).

100kg a month is about £400K to £450k FCF (EX all costs and taxes so clear profit)

So circa £80K to £90K clear profit a month now and £80K/£90K extra every month up to December.

Assuming linear progression

Should be over £500K a month clear profit by December from FB + alluvials + small HR plant

IMHO

Thanks for all the feed back from those that attended the meeting. Appreciated.

In the big picture, the news about Eureka is not that significant as most are here for Bushranger. But yet again it shows the CB is more than just “overly optimistic” with his comments. He said twice over the last 18 months that ore is just about to be put on the lorries and is being taken to be processed. That clearly was not the case and now we have gone from repeated talk of a potential IOCG to hopefully. maybe, getting some income out of this.

2 years ago he predicted $200K a month from Jan 2021 from Eureka

Will Eureka end up going the same way as Moz Gold and Kalengwa (spelling)? If it does, I guess it doesn’t really matter in the overall scheme of things.

Thank God for Fairbride. His one major income success. Which he doesn’t seem to want to promote or celebrate :)

If CB does announce yet another “great accusation project” and not keep focusing on completion of Bushranger sale, then I doubt the market will see that as a positive. Well not before Bushranger sale is completed.

If CB is talking about the model being completed in circa October, then I guess that means Jan next year is more likely? CB does seem to keep insisting the RC model is not as late as it is. He originally gave a timescale of May (June latest) and now its October. First he said it wasn’t late in an interview, now he says it will be only 2 months late! CB needs a new calendar :)

I still believe that there will be a sale of Bushranger and at a much higher price than current SP. But I am not as confident it will be anything like CB’s previous implications and it may not happen until mid 2023 now?

I hope he proves me wrong.

Thanks again to everyone who gave feeback and notes.

I have visions of CB pulling out a revolver at the AGM. Placing it on the table and saying:

"there are two rules about Xtract. One we dont talk about Xtract. Two. We DONT talk about xtract."

Everyone nods and walks out of the room in silence.

If we dont get Q2 results this morning then another question to ask at the AGM would be - when are we going to get Q2 results !

By end of this week it will be about 2 months since period ended.

Its good our AGM is last. I think CB will have quite a few questions to answer from Xtract shareholders today :)

Lets hope by end of today we all have a bit more / a lot more, clarity on many issues.

"I thought news had to be released when it's available, not when it suits Colin"

You're right Lucky. What was I thinking suggesting CB would release alluvial news at certain times to suit him :)

Over the last 4 years, I'm sure the previous release of alluvial results, varying from 2 weeks after the period ended up to 3 months after period, was all outside of CB's control and released as soon as available :)

As the AGM is on Tuesday, I would expect the Q2 results to be released before, either tomorrow or Tuesday 7am.

Q2 results (and Q3s) are usually good (sometimes very good) in comparison, so they should put SH in a good mood prior to the AGM?

"Another 8 months is too much in my opinion"

Unfortunately, I think that is a realistic timescale for a buy-out. That said, I don't think the sp will still be sitting at 4p then. I would expect the sp to start to rise after we have had RNS with official first FB income, say in September / October, and hopefully keep rising as production is ramped up at FB and better income results are released right through to December.

By Q4 we will have more info re RC and Ascot and obviously closer to a buy-out and if all is going well, with no unexpected bad news, then sp should be nearer to 10p than 5p by end of year and having upward momentum.

So it probably wont be a case of sitting here at 4p for 8months with nothing happen to sp.

" So as investors where do we get our trusted information from on which to base our investments? "

I'd say a RNS.

I believe all the figures and statements there.

"Andrew 4444, the logical inference from what you are saying is that you now don't trust what the company says"

I'm not sure how you came to that conclusion tbh.

The logical conclusion is that there is no guarantee that everything that has been said will happen. So we may not get the 20P+ buy-out he implied or anything like the 2mt.

But that doesnt mean it wont happen, as I've said many times before. The fact that I'm still invested shows that my bet it that it is more likely that it will be OK in the end.

As I've said before, its not that you can't believe anything CB says, its that you cant believe everything he says.