Member Info for Andrew4444

also 500k at 3.4 and 500k 3.45 both just prior to the big £50K buy

News tomorrow??

It appears that a 1.4M Buy just gone through at 3.5p

Asian markets opened and £ still falling..

We may end up at parity after all !

At this rate by mid next year just a $100M buy-out may see us all £ millionaires :)

Don't rush that buy-out Colin !

Sunday roast today, talk about xtract at 1hr 6 mins in (2 min discussion)

https://audioboom.com/posts/8163008-the-sunday-roast-featuring-paul-griffiths-executive-chairman-of-predator-oil-gas-lse-prd

Cygnus

I agree with you re sp after Bushranger sale. I would think circa 3p after sale, as FB will be in full commercial production by then.

I hope you're right re earlier sale. Q2 starts in April so if you think the sale is going to be earlier than that, then that means a sale in the next 6 months.

I guess that could happen, but I would be very surprised, and delighted, if it did.

I won't be selling early but will be holding out for the buy-out offer as that will obviously be at a premium to the sp.

My best guess is this will be in Q2/Q3 next year?

I believe Kiwara was sold for 50% special dividend (cash to us) + 50% shares of buyer company at equivalent value. I expect the same arrangement again. I would then assume that the sp will then reduce to value of xtract assets less bushranger ie African assets?

That's my understanding of how it will work.

As PI 's control less than 25% of shares the decision to accept or reject the offer, will be out of our hands

If CB said " Not too distant future" and Oct / Nov time scale then I would think very earliest would be December, more likely Jan and possibly Feb.

The 20 x 25 = 500mt which imho further confirms we are well short of 2mt con copper. For that to be the case then we would need 0.4% Cu Eq which is highly unlikely looking at assay results.

As for valuation. There are so many different variables and assumptions. So when you change a few and multiply them out the margin of error / different results are high.

For what its worth my assumptions are:

1.4mt Cu Eq (500 x 0.28%)
$8500 cu price used
0.9 GBP / USD conversion
1.5% in ground value. The 3% mentioned is usually against a much higher level of confidence of resource ie a lot measured not just implied / inferred

That comes out at 16p ($178M = £160M) with 1 billion shares in issue

Thats for RC only. We have to add on Ascot and the other areas of interest. I think circa 20p is a reasonable estimation.

If you listen to the interview from 4min 15 sec to 5mins CB does appear to be hinting that the majors know what we have and the geo phys work etc may give then confidence to attribute value to other areas that have little drilling or maybe no drilling. I guess the simple analogy would be - if you have drilled half a football pitch and found value in it, then there is a decent chance the other half would be similar. You would not value the other half the same but nor would it be valued at zero value.

A rather over simplistic analogy - but you get my point

I think CB now thinks we've done enough for the other areas to have "some" value (how much is the question) attributed to them. How much or little, value the other areas of the licence (ex RC) is attributed by the majors may significantly change the valuation.

For total buy-out, I'm looking at 15p as minimum, probably circa 20p and with a bit of luck and great negotiation skills by CB, 25p max

"why havnt you picked out the part where 2mt hasn't been hit?"

The 2 mt clearly has not been officially declared and that may explain why no updated RC model has been issued yet. As it would show we have not got 2mt confirmed.

However, CB's comment in the interview "Racecourse is much bigger than we ever expected it to be" is a strange one. Even for CB, it would be a step too far to make this statement if the resource is less than previously expected and claimed only a few months ago with his 2mt comment.

I may have got this following theory wrong and maybe I'm being too generous to CB here, but my understanding now is that CB thinks there has been enough pre work re geo phys, drilling etc that a major can see the potential of all of Bushranger and we will get additional attributed value from other areas without doing more drilling? Obviously more drilling will increase the value as the major would know exactly what they were getting.

Same point as CB has made about doing just a bit of drilling at Ascot to show that there is something of interests there which has value.

CB said in that interview that we would of get to 2mt if we did more drilling so he may take the view the major will also believe this (from work and evidence already done) so no need to spend more time and money in phase 3. Obviously the value we get would be higher against confirmed resource than a " good chance" of additional resource / 2mt.

So maybe CB is right in saying that RC is much bigger than we ever thought but not yet confirmed? And now is looking for a valuation based on what we know is there + highly likely other potential value - which CB is sure will see a valuation by majors of or higher than a confirmed 2mt?

That's my gut feeling on what his strategy is now from that interview. I may well be wrong, or if I'm correct, it could be silly and risky strategy for CB to follow re maximising value. But that's my understanding of what he intends to do now to ensure we come to a conclusion on this project sooner than later.

"Pouring gold every 12 days at 8 kg to 12 kg at FB"

Assume 9kg - that's 22.5 kg a month

May take until Jan / Feb to be fully up to commercial capacity?

I think we should get some figures by end of year though? That's my view not what CB said.

Also of note, alluvials end date circa April 23 to Oct 23.

Not so much an interview but more a monologue :)

As usual, it all sounded wonderful! Lets hope it all plays out as implied.....

My gut feeling from listening to that, is that RC model wont be released this year . I think he said " not too long now" so in CB speak that usually means over 3 months.

If he said imminently then that would have meant this year imho.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8162993-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

Kevin Hornsby just stated on Telegram that podcast will be out at 12 today

The Roast interview is going out today 12 noon, not Monday according to Kevin Hornsby. Stated this yesterday late PM

Yes, CB is limited in what he can say without RNS, but he can give some pointers on timescale ie when first FB income will be declared, when Q2 results out and when RC model will be released.

So plenty of interest that he can still say.

The issue for me is, can we believe any of it !

Looking at the £ today, CB is probably waiting until $ / £ parity before agreeing a deal :)

In the last year we have had a 25% increase in buy-out value just due to £ / $ valuation !

I take your point but I'm not sure that an RNS is the approved way of giving indications of things that may happen. They are designed for actual facts and results, not speculation.

"management should at least give us some clear indication of when these resource models will be completed”

They have done before...a few times.

In early 2022 CB said in an interview that the RC model would be completed by May (June latest). And at the August AGM CB said the model would now be completed within 2 months. (ie by end of Oct).

The issue isn’t the lack of timelines, it’s that events don’t happen when CB says they will.

The market wont react to any future predicted timelines as it now knows that a lot of CB’s timelines are not reliable.

Due to many failed promises, the market will only react on actual delivery – ie RNS of manica income results, Q2 results or RNS of completed resource model with full figures.

As CB has implied RC model will be completed by end of October, I dont expect it to be completed until December / early next. I hope he proves me wrong - but I doubt it !

Eastern

They have not been cancelled and I'm sure they can't be legally cancelled as this info, good or bad, must be given to shareholders.

The latest they have ever been released is 3 months after the period ending - so in theory they could still arrive end of September in 2 weeks time.

I suspect they will be released next week and maybe just before the interview on Tuesday??

Historically the later the results, the poorer the results. That said, Q1 results were late but they were decent to good.

I'm wondering if the additional complication of incorporating GF and BE into these alluvial results is delaying the release now?? If so, then the usual belief of "later release = poorer results" may now not be true.

I guess we'll find out if that is still true very soon !

"Not worth much unless you have a operation nearby"

You mean like Cadia mine with similar geology, owned by Newcrest just 50 miles away :)

Q1 results released 22 June, so if about same time period then Q2 should be out next week?

Maybe Q2 RNS Tuesday am???

If not, they should be out by end of next week latest.