Member Info for Andrew4444

"Seems to be as near to a reasonable comparison as any others we have seen I would think."

Agreed. Possibly the most similar recent sale comparison I've seen?

"Interesting to see methods for the seller to capitalise on additional discoveries. Very applicable to XTRs bushranger."

Agreed. Very, very applicable !

Btw.

By my quick calcs, the additional Gold valuation for that sale only contributes to between 6% and 10% depending if you look at revenue or profit.

So for a more accurate copper v copper comparison, take a max of 10% off that sale - Obviously we may have some Gold valuation in our sale though.

btw

Happy to be corrected on assumptions and maths.

I may have misunderstood something

Assuming I've got my maths correct:

100Mlbs = 45,350 tonnes Per year

15 years = 0.680M tonnes

If we end -up with 1.36M then that's double

Double of that $170M offer = $340M = £300M circa = 30p buy-out

Obviously that' s an oversimplification and I havnt taken into account Gold production.

But gives a loose indication of possible buy-out.

Obviously if we have more than 1.36M tonnes then...........

Persistent 250K seller is still about ...

Annoying !

For me, the most important part of that RNS...

"This will be in addition to the updated Racecourse mineral resource estimate which is close to completion."

Ask didnt move after those big sells. Stayed at 3.17p

Days like this its worth remembering what Jezzo's article said......

"With the penny juniors in the mining area falling off a cliff on Friday with massive drops across the board, we are starting to see capitulation. While it is painful to watch your investments dropping by double digits daily, this is where wise investors make their fortunes. The market will rocket higher just as soon as those silly investors who used margin finish selling off the last of their investments just to meet a margin call.

These sorts of opportunities only come once in a lifetime. Prepare yourself to rake up the falling fruit. This is a quote from Basic Investing in Resource Stocks.

"Weak hands buy at tops and sell at bottoms. Strong hands buy at bottoms and sell at tops. It's vital that investors remember that at every top there are 50 reasons to buy, and at every bottom there are 50 reasons to sell. That's what makes them tops and bottoms."

“The pessimistic side of me says that in Jan/Feb '23 CB will update us to say that these studies will be released 'shortly, imminently, by the next quarter'”

Timescales stated in the report may well slip, but as they were stated in an RNS they are more likely to only slip a bit compared to forward guidance stated in an interview. CB “shoots from the hip” in interviews, but he will have to be more circumspect with statements in an RNS.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we don’t get the Ascot / RC reports until Jan 23 rather then before end of the year as stated. I would be surprised if they are later than 31 Jan tbh.

Irrespective of the exact time scales, the three big news events coming imminently / shortly / in Q1 2023 are :

1. FB first income declared
2. RC open pit mining study
3. Ascot mineral resource estimation

When that happens I would expect a substantial rise in SP to near or above previous high.
Momentum then building continuously in readiness of the buy-out (probably Q2 / Q3 IMHO)

"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."

AND

"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."

I know a lot of CB's timescales should be taken with a pinch of salt, but as this is in an RNS and in a report, hopefully timescales are more realistic. If so, news just prior to xmas should be interesting !

Hopefully a substantial rise in sp as early xmas present for shareholders?????

I dont consider anyone who has been here about 18 months a LTH :)

"long term holders generally lose out"

Well something must have gone wrong if LTHs lose out here.

Many will have an average of less than 2.5p as sp was less than 2p for 2 years and less than 1p for a year - so plenty of opportunity to buy at a substantially lower price the current sp.

CB did not rule out buying new projects at the AGM, so the caveat of no raise assuming no new business is taken on is obviously a bit concerning, however, I suspect CB thinks the sp will start to substantially appreciate as more news comes re Bushranger and the model is confirmed.

So IF there is a raise I suspect it will be done at a substantially higher share price, maybe on a spike after bushranger news, so will not have that much effect on the sp? I'm assuming a raise well above 10p?

I just wonder if CB thinks the opportunity to raise in a higher and climbing sp (possibly spiking sp) will be too good to miss?

Personally I would not want him to do do this but just focus on execution of Bushranger sale and no more treasure hunts!

If the raise is done at a lower than 10p sp and not on the back of good news re Bushranger then that would be very worrying and damaging imho.

I don't expect that to happen though.

Cygnus

Very little volume and looks like buys and sells broadly same.

Just MMs playing their games imho

IMHO they are OK but not great. (Alluvial + small hard rock that is)

Good that they have taken on board the comments at AGM re breaking down figures.

The revenue figure is skewed as we have sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. Alluvials + small hard rock show best ever quarter of last 12 months, but only because of the previously unsold Gold now being sold.

Very disappointing small hard rock figures. That was supposed to keep increasing in production, not going down ! Guy Fawkes is increasing but overall down.

Q3 is usually a good quarter so may see broadly similar figures.

Its all about Fairbride and those figures next quarter should be substantially higher than alluvial + small hard rock in next quarter.

Q2 results, for last year, were released on 5 October. So they don't have to be released within 3 months of the period ending.

Steve

You maybe right, but I can only quote what CB has said. If we have to sell to AA after an "appeal process" then we can't reject the independent valuation. If so, I am surprised CB was so unequivocal in that interview, and he said the same thing in another.

My, possibly wrong and naive understanding of this is that if AA/ Xtract can't agree a price then it goes to an independent valuation. Either party can still reject the valuation and if so then we can sell on open market.

The buy-back gives AA first refusal, not option of compulsory purchase.

I accept that maybe wrong but it seems to align with what CB said in that interview

" If an independent valuation is arrived at, then of course Colin can say no, but it means we are trapped with no way of unleashing shareholder value"

My understanding, maybe wrongly, is that we could then go to the open market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDv0OEknsLk

17min 15 secs in

CB quote

"It would be independently assessed by a consulting company. And of course Anglo don’t have to accept that assessment, neither do we"

Cygnus

As ever, CB's time scales may well start drifting to the right so we may not be selling in a depressed Cu price but fast rising rising POC. CB's own expectations are that Cu will be higher next year and we may not end up selling until Q3? POC should be much higher then.

If the sale is in Q2/ Q3 CB will be vey nearly 80. Maybe hes taking that into account and would be happy for another year or 2 if he was a younger man?

I guess the balance is time v cost v profit and maybe CB thinks we are now at the "sweet spot" re those three factors?

" i wonder if the sp will take a hammering if they don’t make an offer?"

I doubt it as very little is priced in for Bushranger. Because of failed forward guidance and indications by CB the market wants to see delivery before it acts as its sceptical - for good reason. The advantage we have is that the sp has not got ahead of its self and all that is priced in is Fairbride and other assets - not bushranger.

That said, I can't believe we wont find a buyer. Even if its at substantial discount to what we all think. But at a higher price than current sp