Member Info for Andrew4444

I would be delighted if RC + Ascot MRE reached 2mt. I hope Steve' s right but I would be very surprised if it was more than 1.7Mt combined (imho).

I hope i'm proved wrong but I doubt it.

And the main ill-informed comment by JC (imho) re Racecourse grades

"... the rather low grades disclosed by later drilling......"

The grades are standard porphyry grades. Not low.

Makes me wonder if JC actually understands anything about porphyry's ??

Or, worse, does he even know that Bushranger is a porphyry deposit because, as far as I can tell, that word was not mentioned in his article.

Cornford article

"I haven’t mentioned Xtract Resources for a few months – after the last time saying that, following the initial excitement on the long intervals of copper shown by the initial drilling of Racecourse, the rather low grades disclosed by later drilling meant that initial expectations of a 2 million tonne copper resource that would attract Anglo American might be misplaced. I didn’t suggest selling (as I was tempted to do for my holding) because, as always in these situations, it is difficult to know what other investors will do when the resource still looks more valuable than the then share price.

As it is, the shares have drifted back to the low 3’s (and a low £30m market cap) reached when early holders had cashed their profits from the initial spurt from the 1’s to the 7p’s. The latest drift hasn’t been helped either by fewer excited blogs from CEO Colin Bird. But with all drilling results now in, and a new, apparently separate, resource discovered less than a mile away and named Ascot, news is due soon on an up to date economic model. This will be for a larger open pit than was assumed for the earlier estimate of 400m tonnes contained copper at Racecourse, and might also add a preliminary estimate for Ascot.

So, while investors are assuming Racecourse won’t meet the 2m tonnes copper target, what may still be worthwhile in their own right are the still unexplored Ascot and Footrot prospects, which might revive interest. That is especially so because a recent Queensland deal established a US$170m price for a smaller deposit (670,00 tonnes) than Bushranger. It is, however, more developed, with a Preliminary Economic Analysis under its belt and possibly better economics. So it’s all eyes on Xtract’s own forthcoming reports."

Apparently a new PM Rota system has been introduced.

Its my turn to be PM on Tuesday 6 December 9am to 12 noon. I'm at the dentist that morning so if anyone can swap shifts with me it would be appreciated :)

James

We should be getting that news before end of year - probably in December imho, and at about the same time along with:

1. The updated mining study

2. maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect

3. Alluvial Q3 results

I'm sceptical when some use the clichéd phrase " News bomb coming" but in this situation - it may well be true :)

lets hope its good news though !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMt-nAYKTN0

Screenlearner

Re dates

This was in half yearly report RNS:

"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."

AND

"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."

"How much is that then"

No idea - but its certain to be more than current sp valuation :)

"Its hard to find a scenario where CB is highlighting the release of MREs, creation of models and a decision to mine (while also holding off on more drilling) if the 'mine' wasn't economic - especially as there is income available to do drilling where necessary."

That's a compelling view why this is all coming to a conclusion. The $64,000 question, or should that be $640M question, is what will the conclusion be?

I'd be much more ostentatious than that Gixxer

Fill up both my and wife's cars with fuel and put central heating on full :)

"I think the stark truth is no one knows what is going on"

Not true.

I wasnt going to mention this but I have friend who lives in Sydney and he was at a Hotel last week and saw CB talking to Duncan Wanblad (Ceo of AA) . He over heard Wanblad saying to CB

" If we add another zero to the offer and make it nine zeros on the end, then have we got a deal?"

Please would everyone keep this quiet as I will have £100 spare cash by Wednesday and want to top-up again before sp goes over £1 by end of the month.

"There has also been a change in tone from what seemed like nailed on confidence in the resource from Colin to something less inspiring"

Agreed. But is that because CB doesnt feel the need to ramp-up the sp now as he knows now exactly what we have or because he is trying to manage expectations as he knows its nothing like what he has implied man times?

I guess you could interpret his change in tone either way?

Correct Double

1Billion fully diluted

By the way...

Because nothing is priced in re Bushranger, even if the results are not as good as we all hoped for, or as CB has implied. I am not expecting a big drop even with bad news.

Circa 3p is probably about the value of FB alone.

ANY value from Bushranger will see the sp rise

IMHO

"Unfortunately XTR does not seem to be getting its message out there"

I suspect many have seen a number of "false dawns" in the past and now want so see actually delivery before getting in against CB's previous implications and expectations.

I appreciate that some may see that as complaining and moaning about the company :)

I think they have the chronology wrong. Xtract then surfing, not surfing then Xtract

https://www.miningmx.com/rainmakers/profile/228

LIFE OF JAN

.....He left - after an apparent bust-up with Pan African’s BEE partner Shanduka - and took a year or so’s sabbatical to go surfing before returning to junior mining via Colin Bird’s Xtract Resources

I believe JN took a few years off after the mess he made of Xtract and opened up a surf shop in SA and spent his time surfing

I honestly can't see CB doing that :)

IWTO

Sorry, I should have been clearer.

CB implied that we would prove up the 2mt with our drilling. I suspect there may well be more than 3mt over all the licence, but we wont be getting that value unless we prove it up ourselves.

Obviously we wont be doing that but CB did imply we would have a MRE of 2mt.

To be fair, I guess he may still be proved right as the MRE has not been declared yet.

I really hope I owe him an apology soon :) But I doubt it.

"My thinking now is 8-12p"

Possibly, but any buy out less than 10p or RC MRE less than 1M and I think CB's reputation is in tatters after all he has said many many times. There's being optimistic, and there's being deliberately misleading (being kind using that phrase) :)

Even CB's praetorian guard would struggle to defend his comments over the last 18 months with less than 1m RC or sub 10p buy-out.

I notice that there must have been another "misunderstanding" re the "definitely got the 2mt "comment. He apparently was talking about the 2mt in ALL of the licence - not what we would confirm from our drilling... Hmmm.

For clarity - I am expecting min 15p buy-out and 3p additional value for FB. Sp high, in high teens.

"The question is, how off the mark from his comments is BR? .......we will find out shortly but with Bird's history it I doubt it will be anything near what he's told the market"

Agreed.

But even if it is say only 1.25mt Cu at RC the majors will be interested and I would be amazed if that amount at RC + whatever value at Ascot + the other areas of interest in the licence wont see a buy out of 10p min.

Yes, nothing like what CB has implied many many times, but a three bagger against current sp and a new sp high. (min 12p high if you add on FB additional value )