Member Info for Andrew4444

I've had many final, final top ups.

I suspect you, like me and many others, will be having a last ever final, final, final top-up if and when the ASK goes below 3p :)

"Anyone beat north of 7.20?"

How about £1 (equivalent) SP just over 10 years ago.

I've managed to average down a coupe of times since then........

Lowest buy 0.7p (500k x 2)

12p + 3p is pretty close to my estimation which is 15p buyout + 2/3p residual share price.

Tbh none of us has a clue and its all guessing. Would surprise me but not amaze me if the buy-out was as low as 10p or as high as 25p.

It's CB's 79th birthday tomorrow, so he may want to celebrate it with a 7am RNS confirming 2mt :)

Over to you CB !

(If Carlsberg did 79th Birthdays celebrations,,,,,)

"If the JORCs for both Racecourse and Ascot come in around the 1.5mt mark after phases 1 & 2, then that is nowhere near a 'gimme' in my book and I will definitely be left feeling misled"

Tbh 1.5mt is probably circa 15p buy-out + 2p min for FB =17p sp ??

If offered 17p now I would take it.

Maybe my expectation of CB have been beaten down over the years, but I would not be surprised at 1.5mt for RC and Ascot and feel that would be in the parameters of the "CB factor"

I wouldn't feel pleased, surprised or annoyed at 1.5mt. Any annoyance I did have would be eased with a £2.5M payout (not profit I should say). Mere bagatelle compared to some declared LTH holdings a few years ago!

"So; based on Bird's Clarification of the 'Misunderstanding' at the AGM are we to now assume the 'imminent' total resource update will show 2MT?"

No. That's not what I understood from his AGM comments.

I think it was more like that there will be at least 2mt at Bushranger but we wont prove it all up just from our drilling. But either it will be shown in time that there is 2mt + (maybe 3mt) from more drilling done by the buyer or we may get attributed value of 2mt if we prove up say 1.7Mt and the buyer will be happy to pay for 2mt as there is a very high chance that there will be way of 2mt or 3mt + at Bushranger after a lot more drilling is done by a major.

Hence Cbs comment about leave some "sweeties in the box" re excellent GeoPhys results and very interesting areas of interests not drilled by us.

So technically CB was right to claim there is definitely 2mt at Bushranger - but he didnt say at the time we would be the company to prove it all up by our drilling.

That's my understanding from what was reported at the AGM

Gixxer

I believe he has since qualified that statement (at AGM I think) and said he was talking about all of Bushranger?

So CB's view implied that we may not prove up 2mt with our drilling but the buyer will assume its highly likely there will be 2mt in all the licence.

I think it was just another ..."Misunderstanding " :)

NtM

Well, that's definitely a view some could take. All I can say is that you are a lot more forgiving and understanding than I would be :) I would say your view absolves CB of all blame for any outcome!

Steve

I agree with you on timescales v resource guidance, but in defence of CB the 2mt comment was an early doors comment so that may have been more in hope that expectation and not based on empirical evidence. So CB doing what he does, but not saying 2mt when he KNEW it wont be.

Its noticeable that 2mt figure has not been mentioned for some time and since the model was being finalised..

Steve

Thanks for your thoughts.

I think we all know CB exaggerates and that we should not believe everything he says, but there has to be a tipping point when opinion moves from "results show CB was just exaggeration, so what " to "CB has been deliberately misleading". We all will have a different level of result when this tipping point is reached.

One of your comments did surprise me.

"If we are well short of the 2mt expectation (which CB set), then I would regard that as an act of deliberately misleading shareholders".

Depending by what you mean of "well short", but I think we will be less than 1.5mt, if so, you may be nearing the view that he has been "deliberately mislead" ? I actually would consider 1.4mt as being within CB's usual remit of exaggerating so would not consider that he has been deliberately misleading at say 1.4mt. Maybe that's too forgiving of me or maybe I've been here too long :)

If the buy-out is 10p or even less than CB's "They can stick 10p it if offered" then I consider that being deliberately misleading.

I'm sure there are some on this board who would still explain away an 8p buy-out or 1mt as CB just being CB and doing his usual thing of exaggerating so we should not be surprised or even critical of him if those are the outcomes.

"I personally remain in the 'optimistic camp' and do so by trying to stay focused on the asset, where it is, and worldwide demand for it. 10p?!?!? They can more than just stick it!"

Steve

This is not intended to be a provocative question, just interested in your view.

So if the buy-out was 10p would your view be that CB has been deceptive / misleading with his previous comments or would your view be that ....we all know CB exaggerates so why be surprised that he has done that with buy-out valuation and it's understandable that its much lower than his implication ie (10p and they can stick it comment)

"Surely if the agenda here was to ramp this very hard with no likelihood of delivering shareholder value, then that would be Colin's reputation trashed?"

I'm holding on to that view too. CB is a lot of things but I don't think he is an idiot.

The superlatives have been recent ("we have a tier one asset" ), and he must know by now what we really have.

I'm of the view that even if the buy-out is significantly less than CB has implied ie "If they offered me 10p I'll tell them that they can stick it" the buy-out will be significantly higher than current sp.

An 8p to 10p buy-out would mean CB has been deliberately deceptive (IMHO) with his previous comments and forward guidance, but shareholders would still have made money. Some LTHs would have made a lot of money at that buy-out price :)

My gut feeling has always been this will do well, but nothing like as well as CB has implied. I'm still of that view.

btw, CB is 79 on Friday. What a nice way to celebrate his birthday with a cracking Friday RNS :)

I suspect the way things are going here, we may have to wait for his 80th before we get that cracking RNS.

JS

I have a note on my calendar that CB said the model should be completed by end of October . So you are correct.

However, I gave that timeline little credibility as it was not in an RNS.

However, he also stated in the half yearly report RNS:

"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."

AND

"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."

I will consider this a realistic, credible and believable timescale and if this is not met then I would consider it yet another missed timeline by CB.

Mr??

I would assume its a woman, not a man.

Only a woman could be so annoying :)

Its been at least a day since anyone posted an article saying POC will rise or that there's a shortage of copper.... so

https://smallcaps.com.au/copper-bottoming-process-strong-recovery-expected-2023/

"and a large number of small copper stocks are probably bouncing along the bottom before next year’s recovery."

"Goldman Sachs is forecasting the LME copper price to more than double from its current level, to $15,000 a ton in 2025".

"Is reporting of these results mandatory in any way, or does the company just choose to publish if they want to?"

They have to publish quarterly figures but they publish at a time that suits them, be it 2 weeks after period ends or 3 months after period ends.

If Q3 results are good (like last year) we will get them sooner than later.

4. The market doesnt believe CB's statements re Bushranger due to a number of failed timelines and events in the past - over the last few years on many different projects here.

(I'm not saying the market should or shouldn't believe CB's forward guidance re Bushranger - just giving my theory why sp hasnt moved)

Cygnus

Very, nearly lowest for 2 years

I got a bit more at 3.09p 5 Oct

I wasnt going to as my average is low 2p's, but thought sub 3.1p was too good to miss

I may be thinking the same again at sub 3p :)

We know there are no issues with FB ramp-up and all is on track as CB would have informed us otherwise.

sorry correction:

We know there are no issues with FB ramp-up and all is on track as we would have found out from looking at a third party's update, Empress Royalty, otherwise :)

CB's tactic has been, in the past, to try and " kick the can down the road" to avoid giving bad news or to give himself more time to get some good news. With Bushranger I don't think this tactic will now work.

He has clearly implied its all coming to a conclusion. If the results are not good and he tries delaying tactics then the market will respond accordingly. The latest he could realistically stretch this out WITHOUT MARKET CONSQUENCES would be mid 2023 imho. Yes he could be saying "nearly there now" in 2024 but the market would have made its mind up by then.

All that said, if we dismiss all of Bushranger asset value we must have 2.5 to 3p from FB alone. Minimal down side from here against current sp value imho.

Not to sure if you could say that there would be "Minimal downside" about the consequences to CB's reputation and credibility if he's still not released any MRE / open pit study by mid 2023.

I'm confident a buy-out would have been concluded by then and at a value that sees sp above old high ..hopefully by a significant amount !

(Red Flags imho are CB advocating doing phase 3 with FB money or he wants to buy another "must have" project before Bushranger is anywhere near being sold on.)