Member Info for Andrew4444

The problem with a phase 3 drilling prog is that CB has explicitly stated that we wont be doing that when he said (paraphrase) "Shareholders wouldn't thank me for doing another round of drilling"

It would also give the impression that AA or another major are not interested with what we currently have now, as the intention, just a few months ago, was to sell what we had.

Because of this, I don't think we will be doing anymore drilling. If CB now announces that we are, I don't think the market will like that and will draw its own conclusions why we are.

I think it was more of a general chat re copper / gold prospects and not about a discussion about Xtract or individual companies.

I'm not too sure it was helpful re Xtract's future direction. I would like to think CB can't talk too much about Xtract as there are lots going on in the background re buy-outs.

Well, that's what I would like to think....

https://audioboom.com/posts/8197813-midweek-takeaway-copper-gold-special-featuring-colin-bird-leon-coetzer-and-shaun-day-ggp-jlp

That's broadly what I expect tbh as it's in my 15p to 20p band

Just not sure if its this Dec or next !

"And it could happen at any time."

Spot on Jez, any time is right

It could happen in a years time, as CB waits for the POC to keep increasing :)

According to the half yearly report RNS, next news is due within next 5 weeks...

"The company will now utilise all the Phase Two drilling data to update the Racecourse prospect mineral resource and subsequently will update the open pit mining study for the Racecourse prospect which was previously completed in April 2021. The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022."

AND

"Drilling and assay data from the Ascot prospect will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."

Racecourse wording has caveats such as "planned" so may not be by end of the year, but Ascot wording is unequivocal stating "which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022."

If so, we should be getting news between now and Friday 23 Dec, as I can't think we will get news in the few days market is open in late Dec.

The big buys that went in today may imply news sooner than 5 weeks?????

The problem with doing these calcs, and I acknowledge that I am as guilty as anyone in doing so, is that there are 5 variables ( %Cu, tonnage Mt, POC, % inground value and USD conversion)

When you multiply these 5 variables out the results can be substantially different with just a slight change to the variable value.

Example

5 Variables

2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 = 32

Take just 10% of the variables
1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 x 1.8 x1.8 = 18.9

Add just 10% on
2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.2 = 51.5

So result is 19 to 51 (circa x 2.7 difference with just a small 10% reduction to 10% increase)

USD / GBP has moved more than 10% in last 6 weeks

As others have said, it helps kill the time :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VobK1e7-qTg

Manica at 5min 40 secs in

Even if we discount any Gold value and only use Cu %

Assuming 0.27% Cu
500mt
$7700 POC in calc (used by Newcrest at Cadia East)
1.75% in ground value
0.84 GBP to USD

500mt x 0.27 = 1.35MT x $7700 = $10.4B x 1.75% =$182M

$182M = £154.56M

=circa 15.5p (1 Billion shares fully diluted)

Probably add 2 to 3p for Ascot and 2 to 3p for FB

My calcs with different realistic assumptions, keep bringing me back to 15p (min) to 20p.

With a a following wind and a bit of luck we may get sp to 25p (equivalent) inc FB???

HI James

I was really just looking at Cu % but you are correct, their Au is better (but Ascot Gold values may still surprise from looking at some drill results). I would assume that our costs would be a lot less as we are open pit and not block cave - which may help to off-set their higher Au values?

Yes, I was surprised at $7700 used. Hopefully that may be $8k + with our calcs, assuming POC keeps rising over next few months??

https://www.newcrest.com/sites/default/files/2022-11/221111_Cadia%20PC1-2%20Feasibility%20Study%20demonstrates%20strong%20financial%20returns%20-%20Market%20Release.pdf

This is obviously only a small part of cadia

" with the development of PC1-2 accounting for approximately 20% of Cadia’s published Ore Reserves".

and is block cave mining so will be more expensive than our open pit.

Some interesting comparisons:

Cadia East PC1-2

0.27% Cu average grades
16 year LOM
280Mt
Copper price economic assumption 3.5 lb ($7700/ t)

It would seem from the info that has been released by Xtract or from CB's implications, our figures compare favourably with these (obviously they have not been confirmed).

IF CB's comments are correct and we have 500mt, then at 0.27% (seems reasonable assumption and the one I have been using) there is no reason to think that a major would not be interested in what we have. Whether that translates into a 10p, 20p or 30p buy-out remains to be seen !

Come on Newcrest , there's a better prospect just down the road :)

Yes Tam thats my understanding as well.

As they were all so close. I would think they were all from same person??

If so, that's £50K buy from same person.

Surprised ASK has not moved up more tbh

5 in about a minute

300K buyer is back

The back drop support for POC will probably be the EV revolution as that isnt going to slow down and the Green agenda. If POC can rise or at least not fall in a world wide recession, then imagine what would happen when the world recession is over and the world wants to to start to open up and build again.

The bad news is that the time horizons here may be longer that we would like, but as the market is 12 months earlier than actual macro events, we may not need to wait until world is out of any recession before take off in POC ( take of being $11K +)

Maybe its worth CB waiting until end of 2023 rather than moving sooner in early 2023???

Even at 0.22% and $7K and also assuming 1.5% in ground value and 0.88 conversion to GBP, that comes out at 10.1p just for RC.

Of course the 500Mt regularly stated may actually be 450Mt? That would cause CB some issues as he has regularly stated that figure many times and not, as far as i can remember deviated from it (downwards anyway).

My best guess is 0.27% average, $8K, 1.5% = circa 14p for RC + circa 3p for Ascot+ 3p for FB so SP should get to equivalent of 20p. 15p minimum.

so 15 to 20p

IMHO

NtM

I also think that there will be news before xmas but my sub 3p comment was if there was no news or even bad news.

I would be surprised if sp went much below 3p (2.8p maybe) even on any bad news, as circa 2.8p must have 0 value attributed to Bushranger.

With the RNS today, even at worst case scenario, they must be expecting 10p buy out as an absolute min (IMHO)

That said, I won't read too much into the lower exercise price after reading others views.

It does seem like this could be all coming to a conclusion esp at the timing of more options announced?

Thanks for all your views.

So may not be as concerning as I first thought.

I'm not too sure how others interpret this but that does seem to imply CBs expectations are lower??

Exercise price now at 5p for this issue not 10p as before?

Am I reading that right?

What are others thoughts?

tbh if we don't get any news by end of the year, so about next 7 weeks, then I think it could go just below 3p

If we all believe the potential here then that should not be an issue. I would be very relaxed about that unless it had gone below 3p on negative news.

Going below 3p on no news because the impatient have left, it not an issue IMHO