Member Info for Andrew4444

"Saying that, and reiterating his comment 'it's likely we will designing an open pit' - We could be way off the point of a sale"

You may well be right

IMHO CB will keep releasing bits of news, supplemented by his usual very bullish interviews all slowly being a bit more positive and hopefully showing more progress as we crawl slowly to a buy-out in late 2023.

Well, that's my most likely outcome.

Happy to be proved wrong and we get THAT rns in next 2 months... but I doubt it.
.

" I remain optimistically/naively of the opinion though that something has to give this year."

That's about 4 weeks left then. In theory, we should get news prior to ed of the year.

In the half yearly report RNS CB stated that :

….. will be used to complete a maiden mineral resource estimation for the Ascot prospect, which will be finalised prior to the end of 2022.

AND
(For RC). The updated mining study is planned for completion before the end of 2022.

If that RNS timescales (not interview) are correct then in theory we should get some news re Ascot and RC in the next 4 weeks.

To clarify LTH = pre Bushranger shareholders

Steve

I agree CB can't wait a year before releasing MRE for RC and Ascot and I wasnt suggesting he would wait that long before releasing that data.

CB is a master of kicking the can down the road and he may well release some news and keep implying its coming to a conclusion. That may well be dragged out until October next year with CB implying "nearly there now" a few times next year

I hope its before October and it may be , but I bet many LTHs would not be that surprised if it didnt happen until Oct next year.

We should know how accurate that theory is by Q1 2023.

Fosters

You're missing the point.

It doesnt matter what we think POC will do next year or what we would prefer CB to do, its about what CB's thinks will happen (rightly or wrongly) to POC and is an explanation why there may be a delay in any buy-out.

CB has said many times what he thinks will happen to POC in 2023.

I'd be happy to take 20p now...but thats not the point.

The sub £1 sell was me.

I've just ran out of Milk and had to buy some quickly.

The pessimistic view is that AA or anyone else is not interested in what we have at current POC, so we have to wait for a higher POC. Some doubters may think that If what we have is substantial then why not release the MRE and model? It must be completed by now.

The optimistic view is that CB knows what we have, MRE completed but he wants the buy-out as high as possible and is sure POC will increase in 2023 so will wait until then.

It really wouldn't surprise me if any buy-out wasn't until Q4 2023 - when POC should be much higher?.

Confirmation of FB commercial production and RNS of income, should move the SP back to at least 5p IMHO, well before any buy-out news.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8199623-sunday-roast-featuring-che-connon-ceo-of-3d-bio-tissues-and-geoff-baker-director-of-bsf-enterpr

Xtr at 40m 15 seconds

"In whose interest is it to keep AA's interest (if it exists) from shareholders during such a period"

That was also my thinking. I may be wrong, but I don't think there is a legal obligation to keep silent as other companies have declared before that other parties could be interested in buying out the co.

The theory that no news is good news may well be true and negotiations could be going on behind the scenes, but the less palatable alterative view is that AA or anyone else, wants more to be proven up ot a higher POC to consider making an offer so nothing is happening.

Joe

I'm confident we will all be getting an xmas bonus from CB,.......... but just not sure which xmas :)

NtM

Good post. Very balanced.

My issue with CB is that he doesnt seem to understand that there is a price to pay for his overly optimistic comments (timescale or delivery) . Failure to deliver what and when, is paid for with interest, via lack of credibility or belief on future comments.

My analogy would be telling your staff that they will get an unexpected £1000 xmas bonus, but only then giving them £500. If they werent expecting any bonus and you gave them £500 they would all be happy.

So in both examples they both get the same amount of money, but in one scenario people are disappointed and in the other very happy - with the same outcome.

Expectation management is not CBs strong point.

I would take that appointment.....assuming he first got the sp rise he did in FTX :)

I wouldnt be bothered what happened after that !

"There *is* money to be on made on CB companies- you just need to pre-empt the ramps"

As we havn't had any CB ramps for some time and the sp is currently very low, I take that statement by Kwad as his encouragement to buy now !

Bloody subtle rampers, you can spot them a mile off :)

I don't think "idiot" describes CB but more so "chancer". He's a risk taker who wants the prize of "discovery"

I think its a bit too early to give any verdict on Bushranger and lump it with Moz Gold, Kalengwa or Matrix (remember that must have licence !)

Bushranger COULD still be CB's greatest career discovery and he may secure his legacy with it. Or if things don't turn out as he has implied many times, and is still doing so, then it may be the thing that tarnishes his reputation forever as he leaves the stage .

He will have made his mark no matter what happens, but will his legacy be like Churchill or like Liz Truss :)

james

CB did mention 85kg in one interview so I am expecting 75kg at full production. do think we will be announcing FB income before end of the year albeit not a massive amount for reasons you have stated. But with alluvial + small HR enough to cover normal G and A.

I just don't believe there will be a need for a raise unless CB wants to go on another treasure hunt. If he does I think the market will give its verdict - unless we get some v good Bushranger news at the same time .

James

Thanks for that.

Yes I do remember CB saying that the better ore will be process later so you may well be right. But I still don't think we will hit 100kg by end of the year as CB is always optimistic.

I don't believe there will be a raise as we will have alot more income soon even if its not as much as we were led to believe. I also think the message it send will be very bad and I'm hoping CB is not an idiot to do something as silly as that esp when we don't need to.

One bit of useful info that came out of the interview yesterday was FB production. CB said it was now at 30kg a month. At the AGM he said we started at 20kg and still talked about 100kg as the full production income amount. So at that rate of increase (10kg over last 2 full months) it may take us sometime to get to CB’s reported 100kg.

Empress Royalty have stated that we will be at COMMERCIAL production by end of the year (NOT FULL production.
We should have a better idea after commercial production has been confirmed by end of the year and then know what the actual Kg per month is.

I can’t believe we are going to increase production by 70kg a month in less than 2 months after increasing it by 10kg in the last 2 months.

I suspect full production won’t be 100kg as CB stated and we wont reach full production until Q2 2023.

The problem with a raise is the message it sends after all CB has said about significant FB income and no P3 drilling (if that is what money from a raise was used for).

Why would we raise IF substantial FB income was coming very soon?

"OK - not official yet, but didn't he state in an interview that the anomalies north of RC would 'get us to the 2MT'? -

I'm sure you are correct Gixxer. I was just giving CB the chance to confirm the official figures before making a definitive statement. I'm not expecting RC to be 2mt

As or the "large buys" I just think that's FOMO and some getting ready for possible good news before end of the year.

Volume is still low and if there was any leaks then I would expect the volume to be much much higher with many very big buys with sp nearer 6p then 3p

My 2 Red flags would be another drilling campaign and another acquisition before Bushranger is sold.

The "begging bowl" comment was also a slight concern. Maybe nothing in it though.

There may well be some who will try and see a p3 drill campaign or another acquisition as a positive thing, but I bet the market would not see it that way -- not after all CB has said re what we have at Bushranger ie Tier 1, one of biggest discoveries in that area etc etc

I'm assuming and hoping CB would have not been such an idiot to keep building all this up, even very recently, unless he was sure of what we had and that AA or someone else was interested.

Tbf, we can't yet say CB was wrong with 2mt RC comment until the amount has been confirmed. Never know, it may be 2mt at RC...but I'm not expecting it to be !

For the record, I don't expect there to be a P3 campaign or another acquisition, and I still think a major will buy out Bushranger with what we have now..