Member Info for Andrew4444

ZM

I believe a major will want to buy Bushranger and the 1.1 mt resource later in year esp after POC increases.

We have 0.6mt at 0.3% Cu near surface. I think that is worth £50M at least on ts own

As I say, I may be completely wrong but that's my judgment call. If others think this is going to keep going down and there is no chance of recovery (they may be right) then they should sell now before they lose anymore money.

ZM

I don't know any info that has not been discussed publicly.

Like everyone else, my opinion is based on what I believe and research I've done.

I assume, that the 98% of holders who have not sold think the same way as me :)

Sorry I meant by end of next year!

Apologies

Gixxer

I'm not trying to be stoic but trying to strip out the emotion and just look at the fundamentals. CB's ramps and overly optimistic comments make that harder!

My analysis and judgement is that this will at least 4 bag by end of the year based on what I know ...or what I think I know :)

Of course I may be wrong.

Dibs

I know from having discussions with you in the past that you are decent poster but I respectfully disagree with you.

The market is down because of the sells but that doesnt mean holders are right to sell. The fundamentals are not linked to the SP (esp on Aim) as there are idiots who buy when they should be selling and visa versa.

Yesterday 1% of the total shareholders sold and today it will be about the same so 98% have not sold.

I'm not too sure why you said the resource is scattered as Ascot and RC are very near each other and only play a small part of Bushranger.

If this isnt for you then fair enough. Good luck in whatever you decide to invest in

I wonder if CBs comment

"We are in acquisition mode with small deposits in Zambia"

Is the main reason for the drop today. Bushranger news was obviously known about and he said nothing new in that interview re Bushranger

Either that's a placing or at best, its another treasure hunt in Africa using FB income.

I think most just want Bushranger sold and we all move on.

We must now be in FB MC value.

These sellers have not priced in FB income which is expected before end of the year.

They may well get caught out??

NtM

I'm expecting 0.2m from Ascot so that 1.3m. A very big discovery but even taking into account the "CB factor" its nowhere near his 2mt comment.

I wonder where the SP would be now if CB had been talking of a massive resource between say 1 and 1.5mt and we had announced 1.1mt with 0.2mt from ascot ??

1. I thought he was very disingenuous re the 2mt. HE set those expectations not the shareholders. It wasnt that we didn't realise that there were trigger options and the 2mt was just one of them, it was his inability to manage expectations by giving misleading forward guidance re the likelihood of the 2mt

2. "We are in acquisition mode with small deposits in Zambia"

He better not do a placing to buy any more projects – use FB income or no more treasure hunts please CB

3. Confirmation of no more drilling. I think we will need POC to move higher before we sell this.

4. This is a big discovery and I still expect a buy-out of 10p to 15p-but probably late 2023

5. I can see why many were disappointed or frustrated with yesterdays news against expectations, but why sell? This may now "only" 4 bag rather then 6 bag . Seems silly and rather petulant reason to sell.

The game changer here could be the near surface Cu

The 0.6mt at near surface copper (191Mt @ 0.33% CuEq) should realise a lot of profit and relatively quickly

CB has said a few times that profit for open pit mines is usually when POC is above $5.5K so assuming POC is $8.5K when this ore is being processed (POC probably much higher by then) then net profit is $3K / t x 600,000 T/ Cu

That's $1.8Billion or £1.5B profit in first 8 to 10 years (at circa 20Mt per year)

That enough to pay all capex for the mine... then its just processing costs after mine built so $3K / t + clear profit (probably more as POC above $8.5K by then) for everything else over next 15 years. That could be another £2B clear profit if POC is above $10K post 2030

Does anyone think a major would be interested in that :)

"No matter what spin the bulls here try to put on it The market has given its verdict"

Just 0.7% of holders have sold

You could buy at 3.1p two months ago before this news came out

3p to buy now

This is not a mass exodus as its all now crap

Aeris

I think you raise a fair point.

CB must have known that RC was 1.1M for some time, but in the most recent interviews he was not rowing back on his superlatives ie World class, tier 1 etc

He must have known that this result was not consistent with his narrative

CB had to release this news at some time before xmas (according to the half yearly RNS timescale) so now is as good as time s any.

Maybe FB news will be out soon so to act as cover for this??

"· A higher-grade core of the Racecourse mineralisation extends from near surface to relatively shallow depths and contains 191Mt @ 0.33% CuEq, reported at a cut-off of 0.2% CuEq"

so 0.6mt right near the surface to shallow depth

That on its own must be worth 4p absolute min even at 1% inground value . Probably 6p

Cygnus

I take your point re 0.4mt Ascot and 2% in ground value, and you may be right, but I was looking at worst case scenario with my assumptions. I think, after what has happened, its better to assume very low results rather than decent or good results/ expectations.

Btw, just up the road at cadia another mine had a PFS (last month) and they used $7700 POC in their model so I think this is more accurate than $8K POC unless we get a massive move soon in POC soon.

My "out of left field" guess is that CB may be doing a Liz Truss type of U turn soon and decide that P3 drill campaign is now needed after all and the FB money will be used to do this?? Maybe we will need to drill those "sweeties in the Box" CB was going to leave for the major??

In addition, he may also want / need to wait for POC to rise further, so my Q3 2023 buy-out comment yesterday may not be that far off the mark??

Gixxer

If it is not sold by end of 2023 for 10p min then he I agree with you. CB's rep would be in tatters

Disappointing result but not a disaster. We should get at least 0.2mt addition from Ascot so that's 1.3mt

Using:

$7700 POC
Very low in ground value of say 1.25%
0.84 USD conversion
1billion shares fully diluted

=10.5p

Nothing like CB implied but still x3 of what current sp is excluding FB

My revised expectations are now 10 to 15p with FB included

Just a thought...maybe those post Bushranger shareholders will now understand why so many pre bushranger holders were so sceptical and unconvinced by so much CB had been predicting and saying .....

"we are working on the maiden Mineral Resource for the Ascot Prospect, which we expect will significantly increase the overall mineral inventory on the Bushranger Project"

May end up with 1.4m if lucky 1.5m

I think I now know why they added more options at 5p and not 10p

I wonder if those that thought that 10p buy-out estimates was far too low still think that? Buy-out should still be multiples of current sp IMHO

Interesting how market will react

Nothing like what CB had implied, but still a big resource.

As ever, expectation management is CBs problem.

Ben

I agree with you.

That's why I said "10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders" and also said " A few VLTH " re millionaires comment.

About 3 Years ago LTH stated their holdings and about 7 or 8 had more than 10m shares so your 5 VLTH at 10m+ is probably about right.

All I've ever done here is add and not trade, even in the spikes, which was my biggest mistake here . Hindsight is a wonderful thing :)

That said, I'm very hopeful that the sp will go higher at some point than its previous high.

If I sold on next spike, to buy more after the usual drop, I can guarantee the sp would fall just say 10% then we would get the buy-out RNS when I'm out !

Steve

I agree that 10p is a very poor return for post Bushranger holders, but not for those who invested prior to Bushranger. Most VLTH would have an average sub 2p or even sub 1p and likely millions of shares as this was so sub 1p for a year and sub 2p for 2 years.

I can assure you there are a few VLTH here who would be millionaires at 10p buy-out :)

I havnt changed my view on buy-out value, still 15 to 20p, but I have changed my view on timescales for completion.