Member Info for Andrew4444

If Alex Terry is working on behalf of an investment company then I'm sure they must have done a lot of research and analysis before repeatedly increasing their holding.

Its also very encouraging they they still decided to increase very recently after the drop and panic recently.

"Can somebody in the know find out when he personally started buying"

I don't know when he made the first buy but I have kept a record of previous shareholder holdings when updated on website

For Alex Terry

Nov 2019 20m
Nov 2020 30m
May 2021 37.5m
Dec 2021 45M
June 2022 46.5M
Dec 2022 52.25M

So started buying well before Bushranger purchase and has continued to increase many times each year.

He must be confident of a good conclusion :)

So it looks like plenty of research was done before that big investment was made. Worth noting that Alex Terry has continued to add for some time now and also during the recent sp fall when some had a "wobble"

The holding was always in round blocks and increasing, so it implies it was a investment and not a market maker imho

So while a lot were selling he was buying.

He is either a HNWI or corporate

Ether way he is obviously confident for a positive conclusion

1.8M buys
0.1m sells

SP down 1.3%

welcome to Aim !

MMs dont want to let this go... for some reason ......

Hmmm

Not too sure if there is much of a gamble on the POC.....just when, not if ..

imho

Not had one of these for a few days:)

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/glencore-says-this-time-is-different-for-coming-copper-shortage-1.1855549

Medium or Long term it may not matter what the economic model shows.

Just wait and hold and the rising POC will ensure many majors will want to bid for 1.1mt+ Cu

IMO the only real unknown is the time factor before lift-off.....6 months, 12 months or 18 months?

At the evening presentation CB gave to shareholders a year ago, he said that these projects are not usually that capex sensitive, but they are very opex sensitive.

CB said its difference between "night and day" with a small change in Opex.

Butler: "I like your thinking Andrew. And with FB revenue coming in now, there would have been the money to fund a ph3 drill programme. So the fact they aren’t doing it says loads."

Yep. To be fair it wasnt just me who came to that conclusion. Another posted said the same on 16 October:

"Its hard to find a scenario where CB is highlighting the release of MREs, creation of models and a decision to mine (while also holding off on more drilling) if the 'mine' wasn't economic - especially as there is income available to do drilling where necessary"

Any guesses who said that :)

"How to say plenty, without uttering a word"

Agreed. It seemed like a clear nudge and hint that Steve's conclusion was wrong ....without saying anything which contravenes the rules.

Putting aside the emotion on this issue and using logic - after phase 2, If it still was looking likely that it wasn’t going to be economic then Xtract would have announced a phase 3 programme imo. The fact that phase 2 was done shows Xtract must have had some in house assessments to show more work was needed after phase 1. IMHO those in house assessments now show that it is now very likely to be economic at circa current POC. Those in house assessments may even be more sophisticated than just using a spread sheet:)

Three conclusions:

1.Either Jeremy Reid / Quinton Hills and their team are so incompetent that they couldn’t do what Steve did or may be they couldn’t be bothered as they wanted to watch the football.

2. They did what Steve did and came to the same conclusion, but thought, “what the hell” let us get the economic model out to show we need POC at $11K+ for it to be economic. Surely, the market wont have a problem with that?

3. They did their inhouse calcs and decided it was economic and at broadly current POC, so could take it to the next level for independent economic modelling. Where the economic model would give actual precise details, options and best way to improve efficiency, refine, and fine tune results.

From their views, It would appear that two other guys with mining knowledge (John Cornford and Iceberg) have come to conclusion number three.

It appears that the CCP are realising their covid policy error and are slowly releasing restrictions. This should also help copper prices.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/scattered-easing-covid-curbs-across-china-after-week-unrest-2022-12-02/

Q3 Alluvial results should be released by end of this month. Imo they are unlikely to be released in between xmas and New year so that means they have until Friday 23 December before market closes – 3 weeks to release this info.

Also, RNS stated that Ascot MRE should be released by end of the year .

Also, Empress Royalty have also confirmed FB should be at commercial production by end of the year.

So it’s possible, (probable?), that we may get all or some of Alluvial (+ small Hard rock) results , Ascot MRE and FB update / first income declared within next 3 weeks. If not, then early Jan is going to be busy !

That's a few goes at getting sp back up to at least 3p fairly quickly.

Yes, Racecourse is the main Jewell in the crown, but let’s not forget there are still a lot of other very nice precious stones in that crown :)

The alternative view is to DYOR and not to try and second guess what anonymous poster's real intentions are.

The point many miss imo, is that just because someone is being completely honest with their view, and there is no hidden agenda, that doesnt mean they are right !

So DYOR and view others opinions with either some interest or amusement :)

Not too much in that Cornford article but he did say

"What worries investors is that it might now be to small with too sp**** grades, to be economic to develop.
That however looks a bit pessimistic. "

So he also seems to agree with Iceberg. On balance it should be economic . I assume that means at broadly current POC as it obviously will be economic at a much higher POC.

My repeated view here is that this will do well but not as well as CB has implied (does it ever), and I think that's what appears to be happening.

Obviously POC will play a big factor in how well this will do.

Steve4077 here borrowing Andrew4444's computer

I've run the Fairbride figures through my super spreadsheet and I've calculate income will be £3.86p a month at $2000 POG.

I just wanted to be helpful to you guys by giving you all the facts.

There have been a number of reasons why the sp tanked in a week, obviously CBs inability to manage expectations and posts stating that the mine will not be economic unless POC is at $11K+ , are two reasons.

However, I think the third reason is the confusion term "Decision to mine"

When CB stated this, many seemed to think (and some even said it ) they interpreted this as xtract intent on actually building the mine with a JV. One of CB's interviews even reinforced this view with a comment " we will need help with this"

Many understandably sold as they didnt want to wait so long (they thought), before they would start to see a return.

I think the DtM is best seen as more of a business plan that you would submit to a bank to secure a loan to show that you have a viable business plan and when and by how much profit will be made. For us its about triggering the buy-out option not an intent to actually build a mine. IMHO we are happy for AA to say no so we can go to the market.

IMHO those three factors all hit the share at the same time and caused the drop, then you add on a fourth - the fear factor of some panicking thinking "I'm going to lose ll my money" so sold.

So a four punch combination which put the sp on the floor . Down but not out !

Xtract sp is like Tyson Fury ...and looked what happened to him after he got up :)

Thanks Iceberg, very interesting

My take away's:

Iceberg quote “ We don’t know yet whether it will be economically viable, however I think it should be.”

so, far too many unknows for anyone to be come to a definitive conclusion with info and resources we have.

Worst case, If its not economical at current POC (iceberg says it should be) , I think its highly likely that it will be later on with a higher POC. Xtract could be seen as nothing more than a play against future copper prices.

If you believe in that story, then just wait and hold. That's what I will be doing.

Yep

Looks like about 50/50 buys to sells. Maybe more buys slightly. But down 6%

0.5% of shares in issue sold

" I will post a bit later in the next 24 hrs or so as to why I think Steve’s work is a little wrong."

Please do. I would be interested in your thoughts Iceberg

The fact that you both see some of this differently, shows that no one really knows. Apart from the independent experts with all their skill sets, data and resources.

Its more complicated and nuanced than a maths question.

Kevin Hornsby - sunday roast guy has just said podcast is incoming!