Member Info for Andrew4444

NtM

I'm not too bothered when we get them but I wonder if there is some Aim rule that states you have to get quarterly results out within a certain time period? That period being within 3 months of the end period?

As this is our only current declared income stream, it could be considered to have a material affect on the SP - hence it may have to be released tomorrow ?

I think the FB start up has a few teething problems hence why Empress said first results will be out by q4 then said or q1. I suspect we wont get FB results until February.

I would be very surprised if we didnt get alluvial results tomorrow for the reasons I've already stated - but I could be wrong !

I think I'm right in saying that we have never had alluvial quarter results later than 3 months after the end period. I think 30 Sept was the latest ever and that was for Q2 results ending 30 June.

So unless we are going to have alluvial results later than a full quarter, which has never happened before, we should get Q3 results tomorrow.

I will be interested in Guy Fawkes results as they seem to be increasing production. From Q2 "The results for the June quarter are fairly consistent with previous quarters with Guy Fawkes slowly opening up areas for production. "

Less than 50Kg poor, 50kg to 60 kg expected, more than 60Kg good. (IMHO)

As well as CB's holdings, the other note worth holding is Alex Terry. He s not a MM or broker as his holdings have always increased and in round blocks.

Whether he is a HNWI or acting on behalf of an investment company, he is obviously confident of the future prospects by keep increasing his holding, and moreover by 6M recently even after the sharp fall which may have spooked some.

Obviously not Alex Terry. Maybe he has done some research :)

https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/

For info, if anyone is interested.

Just been updated on website from 8 Dec.

Changes from last recorded in June 2022. Latest holding stated with change from June holding in brackets.

H and L 155M (+10m)
Interactive 95M (-8m)
Halifax 71M (Unchanged)
Barclays Wealth 52M (-4m)
Alex Terry 52.25M (+5.6M) Those extra bought after big drop in early dec.
AJ Bell 49M (+7m)

Colin Bird now 16.754M (+2.168M)

Very good Andy !

I hope the last line proves to be correct :)

Just to finish off and complete the prediction.....

SP back up to 8p to 10p by last 2023 and any buy out will be at a 25% to 40% premium to sp - so a buy-out of circa 10p to 14p by late 2023 / early 2024

Butler

My best guess is.......

Q3 alluvial results will have very little if any change to the sp. They will probably be between 50kg and 70kg.

This is distinct to the much more important FB hard rock income.

First report of FB income should see the sp rise even if its not as much as we hoped for due to processing of low grade ore first. It will show we have an income stream started and one that will keep increasing. No idea by what % sp will rise but I think we should be back to 2.5p to 3p range depending on how good the initial results are. Commercial production is not FULL production. That will happen by early Q2 imho then we should see some sp appreciation.

The release of the financial model should see a big rise in the sp assuming we are economic at circa $8500? If its showing economic at 10K then I can't see the market liking that, but I also can't see the sp going down much as we seem to be prices for Armageddon scenario at this sp anyway :)

If its economic at a price lower than the POC at time of release, and the POC could be 9K by the time the model is produced (or more to the point when its released as it may be held back awaiting higher POC) then we may see us back to 4p+. I would then hope for a slow sp climb as continuous news from April to end 2023 implies that we are being positioned for a sale

That's all IMHO and my best guess...but you did ask :)

At 4min mentions 7k 8k 9k 10k copper price

https://audioboom.com/posts/8204540-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

AND another interview

At 17m 30 sec mentions $8K $9K and $10k copper

https://audioboom.com/posts/8201622-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

In an interview just after 1,1mt RC RNS, I'm sure he said they would be using PC at 7K 8K 9K and 10K POC to see what the results were showing.

He didnt mention a POC above 10K

Many analysts seems to think POC will take off in second half of the year but not significantly before.

I wonder if there will be some "delays" in the financial model to ensure release is when POC is at a certain level??

If the financial model shows its economic at way below whatever the current POC is at the time of release then that wont matter, but CB may want / need POC to be a higher so may delay release.

Maybe maybe not, but there is no way I can see a buy-out until Q4 2023 at the earliest.

We paid $12.5m for manica and had offer of $17.5m a year later. That offer is not much less than current MC ! And thats with zero value for Bushranger and just £1m additional MC value for FB mine producing income and alluvial income.

What I find strange is that CB's mantra is,

if you want to find elephants then go where they have been found before.

This would be true of manica so why not look under our noses and spend money on more exploration at manica rather than small African high risk projects. Ed slowey our resident geo has said that there is Gold everywhere but different mineralisation (oxides, transition, sulphides)

For clarity, I don't have a problem with more targeted drilling at Bushranger or more exploration at Manica. Its the treasure hunts I don't like as I think our money could be spent in a more efficient way (risk v reward).


https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/disposal-of-manica-gold-project-for-us175m-e2l0lbeow2nube4.html

"I suspect you will probably be right about Feb/March and that they will sit on it until they have the FB income to fund next steps at Bushranger"

Another determining factor of release time could be POC. I don't think they will want to release it if POC has gone down below the economic POC or has taken a recent dive. They may want to wait until POC is at a certain level or at least after a decent rise in POC??

Now we have had some more info on plans, my best guess of what will happen next, and when is:

Feb/March Economic model released

Mar/ April FB at Full capacity Circa £350K a month PROFIT

April / May Start targeted drill campaign (may need to wait until FB income at full capacity?)

July complete targeted drill

Sept / Oct update model released

End 2023 / early 2024 sale of bushranger

I think the end game has been pushed out a bit from listening to CB pod cast yesterday.

This may not be a bad thing as I expect POC to keep rising from 2023.

Of course all IMHO. Others will see things differently

If I understood that correctly, CB seemed to imply that we wont be doing a P3 drill campaign but will be doing a small amount of selective drilling where needed to be determined by the model when produced?

If so, I'm happy with that approach.

I can't see this being sold until Q4 2023 after more selective drilling, incorporation of more assy results to update model and waiting for higher POC in second half of 2023. We may have to wait until March for enough FB income to come through to start the selective drill prog

It could all happen sooner but I doubt it

https://audioboom.com/posts/8217460-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

"Seems he is talking about them as two separate mines - did he say something along the lines of that if Ascot turns out not to be commercial we still have 1.1MT at RC"

Not too sure how anyone could honestly come to that conclusion after listening to that interview.

https://audioboom.com/posts/8217377-trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources

I wonder what the SP would have done if that RNS was released at 7am for all the "RNS watchers" to see??

0.19mt was not far off my 0.2mt est.

That is a significant increase IMHO

AND a timeline was met :)

1.3mt now. When will the market wake up to what we have ??

So in less than 2 weeks Pinocchio's view has gone from:

7 Dec

Anyone who hangs in there now or even invests from this point is going to get an Xmas gift. PoC going up, Manica coming on-stream and the Zambian Cu project being advanced.

This ascribes nowt to the Aussie porphyry which is clearly a nonsense. The impending global copper shortage means Racecourse and Ascot will be pay-dirt within a year -even if not now.

Cheap as chips at this level- especially with hard rock Manica about to generate annual income of £5M. How many juniors have that sort of cashlflow locked-in for doing nothing !! ?

to:

Today

You can speculate if you wish. It is really very sad. If you only knew CB and what will happen in 2023.

I guess we know why his user name is Pinnocchio.