Member Info for Andrew4444

Fosters

You made that post 5 mins in the future at 12.45

Can you tell how this plays out :)

"Colin Bird has pulled another blinder "

Not for his benefit he hasnt.

His recent buys:

23-Aug-21 Buy Colin Bird 3.50 2,054,700
19-Apr-21 Buy Colin Bird 5.70 1,000,000
25-Feb-21 Buy Colin Bird 5.84 1,000,000

£185K buys with £115K paper loss at current SP

Also 27M share options with 20M at a higher strike price than current sp

CB is probably more under water than 99% of shareholders and will gain more than most by getting the sp higher and therefore has a great incentive to ensure this happens.

deceptively deceptive = deliberately deceptive

Actually my typo may have been more accurate :)

LW

What you seem to be saying (or questioning) is whether we will get to the end of the pathway at all and will CB deliver value?

Anyone who doesnt think CB will deliver may be right and we may have been sold a pup.

My own view is that he will deliver success and we don't know if that success will be 10p 20p 30p or yes even 40p, as the POC will determine that. I'm still sticking by 10p to 15p as my realistic buy-out expectation, but if sentiment turns here then we may get an unrealistic expectation which could drive the sp to an unrealistic high - but a high that some LTH may take advantage of :)

I stand by my repeated criticism of CB of giving aspirations rather than realistic forward guidance and by being "deceptively deceptive", - but I still think he will deliver a SP in double figures, at least, hence why I was happy to add more recently. FB income and the rise in POC (be it this year or next) will ensure a substantial sp rise IMHO

My analogy here is that CB has told us the train journey is 2 hours, non-stop and in first class. In reality, it takes 2 days in third class, 10 changes, we have to catch a replacement bus service and cycle and walk some of the way ourselves :)

But we do eventually get to our destination ! (Albeit now having mental health issues and suffering from a form of PTSD :))

"But, on wether BR is going to be viable,it is not a fair comment to suggest that CB’s is “giving his aspirations for and best case scenarios"

This is conflating two issues.

BR can still be viable (i think it will) but the pathway to that viability may not be the way CB has implied. He can be giving aspirations re the pathway to viability. Such as saying...

CB - “We get the conceptual study back and then we’ll go to pre feasibility.” and

" The model will be completed by April, May latest (stated earlier in 2022)

"Fairbride going into production has seen eventual success."

Fairbride is the perfect example of this. Yes, It has got into production and been a success, but its not happened in the way or time scale that CB stated. CB gave aspirational and best case scenarios which clearly didnt happen re FB and he is doing the same again re Bushranger.

That doesnt mean we wont get there in the end and that he wont deliver success - but not in the pathway he is implying.

Over the last few years CB has made many bold statements and also ones that appear very encouraging. In nearly all cases the results have not matched the rhetoric.

I would caution anyone in trying to find hidden clues or pointers in anything CB says in interviews. He is giving his aspirations and best case scenarios which are unlikely to happen as he implies.

Please see his previous comments in interviews over the last 5 years for supporting evidence !

Xtract starts at 19min

https://audioboom.com/posts/8225243-12-stocks-for-the-12-days-of-christmas-5-gold-rings-special-featuring-conroy-gold-alkemy-capit

"It's frightening to think that the very next RNS could literally make or break the future of the company"

I may have got this wrong, but I don't see it that way - well not news that will break the future of the company. Even if the economic model shows that copper has to be say $9K or $10K a tonne, I believe that will happen within the next 6 to 12 months. For clarity, I don't expect the model to show POC needing to be higher than $8.5K

Worst case imho, we may need to park the buy-out for a year or maybe 2, and wait until copper price goes up.

As others have pointed out, the near surface 0.6mt (191mt x 0.33%) just from RC will pay off all capex and leave a good profit.

It was for those reasons, that I have added another 500K shares over last month (100k x 5) and will keep buying 100k batches up to total addition of 1m by March - assuming sp stays sub 2p for that long.

Previously I said I would not buy anymore as I've already got multiple millions but I didn't expect the shares to be this cheap ever gain !

January sales are still on... but for how long? :)

DYOR I may have got this all wrong - but I doubt it.. FB profits alone, should see sp substantially increase

Gixxer

If anyone had inside info in Oz I suspect they would have sold much sooner and at a higher price before collapse. Volume very low and really not many sells. I suspect its a panic sell by PI who has lost their bottle or needs to pay bills.

Even if you discount Bushranger and give it zero value its doesnt make sense to sell now (unless you need the money) as FB income will be worth more than current MC.

....if Carlsberg did quarterly gold income updates..

An possible alternative and more positive reason for the delay is that Q3 and Q4 results were so good that, along with FB gold production, they are having problems in storing all this gold now. They are trying to sell it on as quickly as possible but cant sell it quick enough due to massive amount so can't officially record the accurate figure for Gold income.

I suspect we are probably at a few hundred million $ of income by now for FB, Q3 and Q4 and we will be waiting until all gold sold and payment made before any announcement. That maybe about half a Billion $ revenue for last two alluvial quarters + first FB income.

I did say it was a more positive reason for the delay and only a possibility :)

"Is it too soon to be asking about Q4 results"

Good point. I wonder if the strategy is now to batch up last years Q3, Q4 and release with Q1 2023 and Q2 2023 in one total figure - so they look good :)

In all seriousness, it would seem that they are going to release Alluvial results with first declared FB income. I suspect Q3 results were not great so they will be included in the much more impressive FB first income results?

I can't believe they have not got Q3 results by now. They must be holding them back.

Link to Empress update re manica

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=682693140214429&set=a.594345572382520

"the number of different income streams , fairbride , the cill plant and the magical 100kgs , the alluvials , and at least two ( probably more) satellite deposits"

CB said at the AGM that alluvial income will probably stop by early 2023 to mid 2023 so we may be coming to an end of that income stream very soon. One of the two small HR deposits, Boa Esperanza, has seen production fall recently so I'm not too sure if this will be contributing much going forward. Guy Fawkes is increasing production so this looks more promising.

Although we seem to have a lot of income streams now, within 3 to 6 months I would expect that FB would be contributing 85% + of income from manica and the other 10% to 15% being from the two small HR deposits with Guy Fawkes being the main contributor of the two.

I hope I'm wrong and that the other income steams do contribute more than just 10 to 15%, but I doubt is and think they will be small beer by mid this year with alluvial income probably ended.

The big unknown factor in determining how well (or other wise) this will do is the POC.

We may find that the delay in this being sold due to some overly optimistic assumptions / comments by CB may, fortuitously, end up being to our advantage if the POC is a lot higher a year (or 2) later than previous anticipated buy-out timescales?

My impression is that we will definitely do a bit more infill drilling as guided by the economic model. To get most "bangs for our bucks " rathe than more exploration drilling. Maybe another 10 drills in strategic areas where the model wants more definition or certainty.

I'm confident for a sale at some point in next 12 to 18 months and I still think 10 to 15p is likely rather than just possible.

Obviously POC will be a massive driver in that and IF POC takes off like some think by end of 2023 then we may be looking at low 20s but I think that is, realistically, the very optimistic case notwithstanding POC going into orbit at $15K+ within a year which seems very unlikely in that timescale.

Butler

We wont be getting just 10p.

Remember what CB said re a 10p offer in 2021.....

"I'd tell 'em they could stick it "

Hmmm. I wonder what he really would do now if offered 10p.....

I would love to see a proper interview done by Matthew Gordon at crux investor!

CB would get destroyed if he said the same things to MG as he did in his other interviews !

In addition, the roast boys do a lot of "editorial comment" in the interviews - much more so than zak does. They dont just give CB a platform to promote his companies they actively promote the company themselves through their own views and comments.

I found this more noticeable than when Zak does the "interviews " (sic) who seems to make only two comments :
at the start "hows things with Xtract Colin" and then at the end "thanks Colin and bye"

CB uses Zak and the Roast boys to promote his companies. As others have said, the roast boys are paid in shares and never question him on any failures. Its not an interview but a paid promotion.

It would seem somewhat more than just coincidence that out of nearly 1000 AIM companies the roast boys pick most of, or all of CB companies to recommend as a stock pick or regularly cover !

I wonder why? :)