Member Info for Andrew4444

"So Colin being economical with the truth or telling porkies??"

Fair point. When has CB ever been economical with the truth in an interview :)

"Anyway, it really doesn't matter as results will speak louder than words."

I think we can agree on this point so lets leave it there and wait and see what the actual results are....And when I say results I mean PROFIT after tax not revenue before tax and operating costs !

Buona notte e dormi bene !

"We are nearly on the same page I hope?"

Unfortunately, no not on the same page. In fact not even the same book :)

You said:

"So guys there you have it. Colin is saying we will get between 23kg to 30kg a month against costs of £40k to £50k per month - these costs are already in place for the Alluvials plus small open pit and hard rock operations."

As has been said by others many times before, you are mixing up different agreements. Alluvials, small hard rock and FB are all under completely different arrangements.

You said:
POC per KG is $61750
23 kg is $1,420,250
30kg is $1,852,500
Per month
At a cost to XTR of £50k per month.

Your $1.42m income a month for 23kg a month to xtract is correct, but the costs are not £50K a month (I assuming you meant $50K a month but thats not the main error)

CB has made it clear we get 23% of PROFIT not income. He has said many times that the FB margin will be 40 to 45 %.

He has give indication of costs in another earlier interview:

Assuming POG 1800
Production tax (6%) 108
Direct cash costs (CB said 560 official but call it 600) 600
Prod tax + Direct cash costs 708
Tax (32%) (32% of profit) 350
Net Profit per ounce 742
Margin % 41

These may change but it supports his previous comment of 40 to 45% margin

In addition, CB held a chat room discussion in July 2020 which he answered questions. Below is a copy and paste of his actual reply. Words he typed.

07-18 10:25
Xtract Resources Plc - Colin Bird:

Hello David, we do not sell gold locally. The gold is sent off shore with a contracted refinery which passes international regulatory scrutiny. ....... The Fair Bride hard rock operation will be the same guaranteeing good prices relative to the current gold price. We get 23% of revenue less direct operating cost so if the project does 100kg per month at a margin of say 40% we get 23% of the marginal contribution.

So yet again, CB refers to 40% margin, as he has done before in previous interviews that James referenced. Why would CB keep referencing 40% margin if the margin was so much more than that. It would have to be much higher if your figures are correct. Why does the calcs above come out as 41% using CB tax and cost figures? Coincidence?

From FB we will be getting 23% of a circa 40% margin ie we will be getting just over 9% of total production. 9% being FCF so after all tax and costs.

At 23kg a month that is $1.420M but we will be getting 40% of that so $568K = £471K to Xtract assuming 100kg a month production

It will probably be more like 75kg as CB is overly optimistic. 75KG a month would give xtract £350K a month clear profit and this is more realistic. Assume £300K to £400K a month profit a month from FB.

I belive Any mills and James has said the same thing to you a few times before. Even shown you the actual RNS agreement

Dani, you are mixing up three different arrangements in one and ignoring production costs for FB. S

Seems a lot of faffing about and overcomplicating a straight forward task tbh.

Couldnt they just ask Steve to do this with his spreadsheet??

He manged to do all that on his kitchen table over a weekend :)

Very little info on xtract imho. No new info

Summary

1. FB should do well in 2023 and looking to add on sulphide plant and explore for more oxides

2. POC should do well over next 2 years

3. Year of the small miner

https://audioboom.com/posts/8229821-the-sunday-roast-colin-bird-special-xtr-glr-afp-ben-bell-qbt-nght-mex-tek

Yes but horse Dani isnt even prepared to be led to water ...it wants to gallop off in the other direction :)

Oh well. We all tried.

Good questions Andy, but I doubt the roast boys will be grilling CB. Its a paid for interview and they will be letting him use it as a PR tool. I hope I'm wrong but very much doubt it.

Btw, sterling work by you and James on the other site trying to explain to Dani how our FB arrangement actually works and why her income figures are nonsense !.

As the saying goes....there are none so blind as those who will not see :)

Its a matter of opinion who's judgment you trust re future value.

The CEO of a company who will have more info than anyone and buys more at depressed sp, or the shareholders who recently sold..

Its a difficult one to call :)

or Steve 4077 :)

"Have you ever thought or factored in the sp is lower now than June last year. So AA don’t need talk to us they can actually buy XTR outright."

In theory yes, but if they started to buy up shares in a hostile takeover the sp would start to rocket. They may end up with the 90% to force the sale but what would the sp be just before they reached that threshold !

If we just focus on RC near surface copper that's 192M x 0.33% so 0.63mt

just up the road at Newcrest cadia another mine had a PFS (November) and they used $7700 POC in their model . Using very conservative 1.5% inground value that works out at 6p valuation full diluted or 7p at current 856M issue.

Thats with very pessimistic POC and in ground value and ignoring all of FB and other Bushranger areas

I would think it highly likely that a major will want, at the very least, the RC mineralisation at near surface . I think it more likely we will be doing a very limited p3 infill drill campaign as guided by the financial model to give more definition to certain areas. I would be very surprised if CB did a full P3 campaign in new areas.

CB could not have been clearer in interviews that he would not be doing a full P3 - so that may be a good reason to think he will :)

If so then mid 2024 for the sale imho....but then again, POC maybe even higher then so maybe that would be sensible?

(PS I still think Newcrest will by the buyer due to big presence in the area with cadia being similar system)

"So what's on the horizon that's going to turn around the sentiment here?"

Not aware of any imminent news but if poc keeps climbing that may bring more buys is

Higher poc more chance the financial model will be economic.

My view on the reasons for the continuing sp fall is a lot more simpler than some explanations.

I think most who were going to sell have sold and most who wanted to buy have done so. This means very little volume. MMs are not making any money with this level of volume so are trying to create volume by dropping the sp and either spooking weak hands to sell, or encouraging those still in / new investors to buy at perceived "bargain" prices.

There are loads of important things to remember about Aim, such as short term time horizon that many investors have, lack of scrutiny compared to main market , but the main thing to remember , imho, is that the MMs decide the sp. Its not calculated by some algorithm so that's why we often have the sp down when there are more buys than sells. Or a massive spike in sp on no news to get away a placing.

MMs are taking this down to generate volume. The sp does not reflect the future prospects but its a tool the MMs can use for their own benefit to make money by increasing volume.

Of course AIMHO

..Now above $9K.

"I'm hoping for a strong POC year this year, especially from q2 onward"

I'm also thinking Q2 onwards will be when we see some positive movement with the sp. We have been told that the economic model should be out by early this year - so in reality I think that will mean some time in Q2 . We wont be getting any FB updates (from Xtract anyway) until April at earliest - if you assume the 6 monthly reporting starts from 1 Oct (Q4). The Alluvial income in Q4 should be known before April but I doubt this will move the sp much either way, up or down.

So I think we will have very little or no significant news for a few months and the sp will be below 2p for some time.

I guess if you believe in the long term prospects here then that will be a good opportunity to keep adding ?

'I just cant believe anything that Colin says anymore.''

As I've said before, its not a case of you can't believe anything CB says - but you can't believe everything he says. The problem with that is you don't know which parts to believe or what he has just said is correct or not !

He must have really believed that this was going to do well as he bought £185K of shares in the open market at an SP way above current price.

We have FB up and running and a massive copper asset which has to be all down to CB. But his timescales and forward guidance and expectation management have been shocking.

I said years ago before Bushranger - add at least 6 months to his time scales and half is output predictions and you will be nearer than his forward guidance.

But that doesnt ,mean he wont eventually delivery value sp appreciation - just not in the pathway or timescale he has implied

AIMHO

I'm sticking by my previous calcs that we will be getting 23% of a 40% margin of FB.

So at 80KG a month that will give us circa £350K clear profit. Not as much as some have said (sorry Dani) but I think thats realistic.

So q3 1136 oz from FB gives Xtract 104 oz = $188K profit = circa $62K profit = circa £50K profit. Low as low grade ore being processed in first few months.

Will keep increasing each month but will take a few months before all issues sorted and up to full capacity.

Looks like Alluvials is running down as CB stated at AGM, but good news is that small HR deposits at Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza are ramping up.

FB may take a few more months to be at full production but production will no doubt keep increasing.

Good production figures imho

"as it seems all our cards have been played and the winnings pot is empty"

Two cards left to play yet imho are FB income card and the result of financial model.

With POG and POC increasing and expected to go higher this year, they maybe a pair of Aces :)