Member Info for Andrew4444

CB bought :

£22K jan 23
£70k Aug 21
£57K april 21
£58K feb 21

All in the open market

May be he did believe his own forward guidance :)

"Did CB's estimated full production gudiance previously at average gold prices for 22/23 not equate to more like approx £450k p/m to xtr Andrew? That instead of £300k p/m is my main point."

NtM this is a good example of of the point I was making.

If FB income is "only" £300K then CBs forward guidance of £450K a month will have proven to be nonsense (as usual) . He also talked about the $1M a month income from all income sources which we are nowhere near.

But although the reality will no doubt be much less than Cb's guidance, it will still be a significant amount, possibly transformational ie £300K a month FB alone?.

In you previous post you said

"I'd also add: and -might easily prove - not to be as significant income to xtr.l as CB implied."

You didnt just say it could be a lot less than CB's guidance (which I'm sure it will be) you said "not be significant". That was the point I was challenging.

Being a lot less than Cb's guidance, doesn't mean not significant. And therefore things not happening as quickly or at the levels that Cb implied doesnt mean nothing of significant note and value is happening.

In short, CB's expectation management is shocking and self destructive.

Ntm

I believe a very conservative estimate of FB income is £300K a month FCF at full production. If so that is significant imho.

You could be right and it may be a lot less than that and not significant. Also the Economic model could show $10K break even and the POC may never get above that - even in the next 10 years.

If we believe the worst case will happen (and it might) then I can't see the point in anyone holding this now tbh.

My one liner with CB is .... just because you cant believe everything he says, doesn't mean you cant believe anything he says :)

We shall see.

My confidence in CB's forward guidance has always been low - hence my many comments over the years and stating that he has been "deliberately deceptive" on a number of timescales and anticipated outputs

However, we must not conflate CB's very optimistic forward guidance comments with the fundamentals here.

We have a big asset in Bushranger (not as big as CB implied) and regular significant income to come from FB (not as soon as CB implied) . Many understandably feel let down or deceived by CB, but that doesnt mean there arent great fundamentals here or that the true value won't be realised at some point in the future. But that "at some point in the future" probably wont be this year so I suspect many have left as they cant / don't want to, wait that long and can see a quicker return in another small cap.

I good example of the potential here is assuming the economic model is very disappointing and shows a break even POC of say $9K or $9.5K . I doubt anyone, esp the majors, would not think POC will be well over that figure for the whole of LOM after it was built.

Worst case scenario here, imho, is that this is going to take a lot longer than CB implied.

CB better a get a move on with this buy-out.... hes going to lose a few million options if he doesnt strike a deal in next 12 months

"The New Options will lapse five years after the date of the award, being 19 February 2024"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/directorpdmr-shareholding-m5g41puow1y4x62.html

" i finaly lost faith & sold at start of December before the latest collapse in price"

The share price was 2 to 2.1p at the start of December - just slightly more than now and significantly lower 2 weeks earlier.

The fall started in Mid Nov so you didnt sell before the collapse.

With the narrative of our post I'm not too sure why you decided to title it "Long term hold !"

"However, one has to factor in that with the increase in the price of Cu since the agreement was signed, less than 2MT would eventually lead to the same sort of profit margin AA originally envisaged."

Exactly my thoughts. AA can play the long game and wait until we have satisfied their view of a DtM, but as time goes on the price they will have to pay is almost certainly going to go up as POC increases.

AA should want to strike a deal sooner than later.

Although its a PITA seeing timescales move out, its highly likely that the longer this takes the higher the buy-out

susceptible= scepticism

I think the "sack of salt" susceptible is only required when CB said something very positive or optimistic. I dont think saying more drilling will be required falls into that rampish category so I believe him when he said that in pod cast.

The RNS statement also seems to supports that view.

We will be doing more infill drilling but may need to wait for the report - or income from FB before commencing this. My end of the year buy out is looking very very optimistic and I suspect the sp fall over the last few months is because many many have decided to sell as this is too long to wait.

They will know doubt be back as things progress and get nearer to conclusion

"What would prevent getting on with the drilling immediately? Cash flow? Availability of rig? Lack of motivation? Weather?"

Maybe awaiting the ES report to know what "gaps" need to be filled and where best to do the infill drilling? Of course lack of funding and waiting for FB to keep ramping up could also be a reason ?

I can't fault the logic of assuming we may be in the queue of this PR campaign, but tbh I'm not that bothered even if we are.

After listening to so many of the roast "interviews" on many of CBs companies, its clear to me that the roast boys are nothing more than CBs "head of public relations".

They are doing what Alistair Ford should have done. And doing it better than he ever did.

All great PR, but it will offer nothing to anyone already invested and for many on here we know to take, not just what Cb says with a sack of salt, but also the comments of the roast boys. They seem to get just as excited as CB when talking about the projects and never challenge him on any of his failures ( timescales or output deliver)

It should be seen for what it is -- a paid for promotion.

Not me Gixxer :)

but I am adding 100K once a month if under 2p

Sorry to say but those two 2.1m trades look like two transfers to me as ask / bid hardly moved. Buys or sells, I thing they would have significantly changed the bid / ask if they were genuine buys or sells

Whatever the vehicle for the true economical assessment, PFS? The market would not respond well to an initial resource model showing a breakeven figure less than or the same as the current POC. The market would not be thinking ...

"well we all know POC is going much higher in future years so its all going to be great"

CB has a responsibility to increase shareholder value and he wont be doing that, at least in the short term, if he released a model showing current POC is lower than breakeven.

As for POC tankng by 20%. Thats exactly why the majors do their calcs, before a buyout offer, at discount to current POC. Cadia new resource used $7700 POC in their calcs when POC was much higher

" I personally think he has the updated report and will just keep 'processing' the data until the price of copper is higher and he has acquired enough revenue from Fairbride to fund a short phase 3. "

Agreed.

Maybe I'm reading too much into his recent comment, but he went from early 2023 for ES to... I don't know when it will be released - just 2 weeks ago. He seems to be pushing time scales out maybe to give himself more time as POC (he thinks) will start to go higher.

With no FB income news due for some time and possibly no ES for a few months, this could be a barren time for any significant news.

Joe

It may be possible that it is ready for release at end of Q1, but I would be amazed if CB released it just after it was ready rather than at a more opportune time subject to POC. No point releasing it if breakeven figure is less or same as POC

As CB thinks POC will be going higher this year, I think he may hold off the release until later.

Yes I know that is not within AIM rules, but I think we have all seen CB being rather creative in his timing re release of news (Alluvial income?) so he may well wait until the most appropriate time to release ES...

Thats why I think Q2 is more likely than Q1 even though it may be ready for release by end of Q1

Thats my view but obviously I could be wrong......it may be Q3 :).

"I guess the question is: 'when is early in the year' for the update on the open pit mining study"

In the last roast interview 2 weeks ago CB quickly said " I don;t know when the economic study will be completed" I took that as meaning it won;t be this quarter.

I suspect the ES will not be released until CB thinks the time is right, rather than when its completed and ready.

I don't expect it will be released until Q2 and probably mid / late Q2 when POC should be higher??

Not too sure if leaving Kalengwa on the official Xtract web site is an example of the company being economic with the truth, but probably more a case of the tardiness and unprofessional nature of the company not updating the website.

I doubt there are many or even anyone looking at the website who is not familiar with Xtract and therefore they will know the situation re current projects.

I suspect within the next 12 to 18 month months CB will be saying

" that around 3m worth of equipment was required to progress the Eureka project, and that XTR were not therefore going to progress the project due to "uncertainties", and fact they we never intended to put that sort of cash up front."

Ben

If the two you are referring to our Kalengwa and Eureka as the two failures then its actually three failures as there was also "Kajevu" known as the "Matrix Project".

All three in Zambia

Money spent with 0 income which could have been used to do more drilling at Manica where we know there is recoverable gold - or used for more drilling at Bushranger.

CB does seem to have an affection for Zambia, which doesnt seem to be justified at the moment :)

"The practical aspects regarding an accelerating share price as shares are hoovered up in an attempt to get a holding interest have been explained by others previously too."

Yes, many times before.

I really hope someone tries a hostile takeover as they would need to get to 90% (for compulsory purchase of remainder) and by that time the sp would be way over 20p

The reason why CB said this doesnt happen to small caps in this sector is because it would be a very expensive way to acquire a small cap. Much more so than the more conventional way of offering a buy-out price at premium to the last 30 day SP average