Member Info for Andrew4444

Zak Mir Interview below

https://soundcloud.com/zak-mir-168804435/zakstraderscafe-interview-colin-bird-executive-chairman-xtract-resources?utm_source=mobi&utm_campaign=social_sharing&utm_terms=mobi_audio_ads.control

CB is consistent with his anticipated income figures here, with his prediction of $400K to £500K a month ("assuming we achieve our targets")

Worth noting that we are now only just starting to process the main Hard Rock which will be higher grade. So hopefully another marked increase in income for next quarter?

CB said steady state should be achieved in 2 to 3 months , so that probably means 4 months so hopefully by mid Q3 we will be at full capacity??

I'm looking for 50% increase in production next quarter (no rain and now in main Hard Rock) and another circa 20% increase for quarter after that. That should take us to CB's anticipated monthly income of circa $450K a month by Q3?

Dani

I've already given you a comprehensive breakdown of my calcs on 16 Jan 2023 at 20:10. That was the second time I have done that and dont want to clog the BB up with another long post.

The "three times "comment by CB was some time ago and that was x3 income from FB per month against alluvial income. If so, that again confirms your income prediction is far too high and more consistent with my FB prediction.

There is nothing more I or anyone else can say to show that your figures are far too optimistic, so I will leave it there. May be you will start to understand more when FB income settles down by Q3 and is broadly what I have said.

So sorry, we are not on the same page.. or even on the same book...or even in the same library. If we were in the same Library I would be by the "factual reading "area and you would be reading at the fiction area :)

For what its worth....MMs will take 1.25M at 1.53p atm

They want shares.

My 17 Jan post..............

Further to the discussion re FB income.

Using a more consensus view, and some may say more realistic, if you look at two upper and low case scenarios we get (imho) a reasonable idea of what to expect.

Assuming margin is 40% (most seem to agree) and we get 23% of that:

Pessimistic view:
POG $1700
65KG month

That works out at $328K a month = £270K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs

Optimistic view:
POG $2000
100KG month

That works out at $592K a month = £485K a month net to xtract after all tax and costs

Average of the two upper and lower bands is £375K a month

I think circa £350K a month (+ or - £50K) is a very realistic assumption on level of income from FB when we are at full production - probably some time in Q2

https://audioboom.com/posts/8276536-midweek-takeaway-with-colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-aim-xtr

Dani

Interview just out. He confirms FB income at 2min 30 sec

He must have missed your posts as he is talking about $350K to $400K a month profit.

What have I been saying for the last 18 months? £300K to £400K (£) FCF

Check my posts if you like. I've been consistent with this profit and it appears CB agrees with :)

"So you see Andrew4444
This is where I got my info from..... straight from the horses mouth - Colin Bird !!!"

If CB said that, then it must be true. Why would anyone doubt what he says :)

These are just about OK results. Not bad or good.

Take away points imho

FB is ramping-up and " Preliminary mining contractor gold production from Fair Bride deposit of 123.68kg for Q1 2023, equivalent to 3,976 ounces"

As production increases from April in manica due to better weather we should be at circa 70kg a month by Q2. imho

"Now that the Fair Bride operation has settled and the capital investment has been completed, we plan from the 2nd Quarter (i.e., the three months ending 30 June 2023) to report quarterly on Fair Bride's operation and financial results."

Still no indication of actual income from FB. I assume that will be reported next quarter?

BE and GF look like they should keep on for some time in a steady state way.

Sold a lot of previously unsold Gold. How much more do we have left??

As CB said FB will add much more than alluvial loss, so massive net gain coming with substantial increase in income probably by Q2 OR Q3 latest.

i wonder if he will do interview or just keep his head down for now?

I think that understanding is probably correct as Fair Bride is obviously a completely separate area compared to Guy Fawkes and Boa Esperanza, and they were not in the semi-annually comment and can't be seen to be anything to do with Fair Bride??

Jezzo

RNS said

"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."

My understanding was that that the semi-annually reporting period was referring specifically to production at FB only and not the alluvial and small HR?? Those other two production streams are more manica in general. If it was for ALL production then I would have thought the word "Manica" would have been used and not Fair bride??

Well, that's my understanding. I guess we'll know which interpretation is correct soon enough.

"When can we expect next set of production updates please?"

Imminently :)

Last quarter release was 9 Jan so if its as late as that then it should be tomorrow (just before Easter). If not then it will be after Easter which means they will be latest ever release - circa 3.5 months after period ended.

If they were good they would be released by now so I'm expecting them to be average at best ie circa 50 to 60 kg for the period. Anything less than 50KG will be disappointing imho.

Alluvial production is running down but small Hard rock seems to be increasing so most of the production may well be down to small HR??

CB has left it nice and vague for both views to be correct. I think on balance it means June / July but I accept that may be wrong.

For clarity I dont think this will be going over 2.5p until FB results have been released - be that April or in circa 3 months time.

NtM

If you are right about the April update then you may be right about getting to 2.5p earlier. The reason why I said 3 months before 2.5 p, is because we were told in the 9 Jan RNS that....

"We anticipate that the financial results from Fair Bride, where we have a 23 per cent. net profit share will initially be reported semi-annually."

To me that implies another 3 months wait before next update??

NtM

I'm not expecting this to be going over 2.5p anytime soon so you will have plenty of Fridays to get in with

"Wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend! :)

I think we will need FB results to get this back over 2.5p and that wont be happening for circa 3 months.

I can sell 900K no problem. Previously over the last 2 weeks it was hard to sell and when I could max of 400k to 500K.

Too early to call the reversal but possible some green shoots of recovery???

Maybe Q4 results next week will help things along......or slow things down :)

tbh I would rather the journey back to 6p was a robust one that took time rather than a relatively quick spike back up. I would have more confidence that we would be staying at 6p if it look circa 9 months to get there and that would be a firm base for hopefully further gains?

My immediate concern is seeing some big sells over next few days. If we dont see that then hopefully we will have a slow climb back up??

Looks like 1.3p U/T trade after hours wiped out the real 15.4% rise !!

At least it should open up tomorrow :)

Done a few dummy buys...can't buy anything

I suspect that as the MC and sp are decoupled from the fundamentals a few were waiting until the selling had stopped or that others were going back in.

Whether this is a false dawn remains to be seen.

If we dont get big sells over next few days then maybe, just maybe we are going to bounce up from the lows?

"I still believe this will turn out to be a good story ..."

That's also my view but I suspect that will be as much due to the very high POC over the next 12 to 18 months than anything else. We may need $10K + copper to make a sale and that is not what CB implied.

Unless we get a sale at current POC then my view will be that CB has been coming out with BS over the last 2 years even though we still may do well here. But that will probably be mostly due to the high POC .

It has to be held within 6 months of the end of the last FY - so by 30 June. Probably on Friday 30 June as CB may want to leave it as long as possible for sp recovery and FB ramped up ??? If earlier then still in June

We have to have 3 weeks notice.

Rules were relaxed during covid but my understanding is that we are now back to pre covid rules.