Member Info for Andrew4444

same.

Surely 2p will get broken today??

2p to buy small amounts now

n/t for any amount for me

I thought this vid was very useful.

I know we are not going to build the mine, but a lot of these early stages still apply to us.

I think we are just before stage 5

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDFAKWTVe8k

Exactly NtM

The bottom line is that the only sp price a SH is bothered about it what they paid and what it is now.

Unless a sp keeps going down consistently, there will always be a one-off period when it has gone up, maybe 50% , then continues on its downward move.

I doubt many would consider that one-off rise period as reasonable representation of the CEO's performance if SP is down say 75% over the CEO's time in charge!

"The reality is that before commencement of phase 1 drilling in dec’20 the share price was not too shy of where it is now!"

Yes it was, but after that date CB did countless interviews over the next 12 months telling everyone what a great investment this was and what we had.

Many bought in on his forward guidance when the sp was double what it is today.

When the sp was 1.4p recently, it could be said that CB has done a great job as he has doubled the sp in 3 years as it was 0.7p 3 years earlier !

100% increase in 3 years...and yet SHs are still complaining :)

I do think 10p will get taken out eventually...but that will be at least a year away and probably more like 18 months and down to Bushranger.

I think it reasonable to believe sp could get to 3p to 3.5p by end of the year but that will probably be all down to FB.

That would be great, but lets not kid ourselves that even at 3.5p most will still be underwater due to CB's misguidance over bushranger timescales and output.

But 3p will be a start of the recovery and a good platform to build on for CB to give SHs a return on their investment. ... imho

Ask continues to move up even after high sells. That wasnt the case in previous weeks as any sell quickly knock back the price .

Looking good for a continued move up ..atm anyway .

2p may get taken out today?

after hours 1.79 u/t trade brought rise down to 2.3%

was really circa 8%

All sells are being batted away with no adverse effect to the forward momentum.

Ask moving up in a steady and robust manner.

Only thing I can see stopping this forward momentum is a CB interview :)

Can buy now. 1.85p

Sells dont seem to holding this back.....atm anyway :)

The two big sells today didnt seem to stop the MMs increasing the Ask.

Now n/t to buy like yesterday.

Another tick-up coming????

I hope you're right James, but I would be surprised if at full capacity FB production was more than 2500 oz a month for EVERY month . DFS said 31k a year = circa 2500 a month.

I think 75kg a month (circa 2500 oz) is max it will be. I know CB said 80kg to 100kg a month but we all know he exaggerates.

At $2000 POG less 700 cost = 1300 oz net profit x 2500 = $3.25M a month. 23% = $747K / £600K pre tax profit a month to xtract.

I think in reality the average production a month over a 12 month period may be more like 2200 due to some production disruption with rainy season in Dec / Jan / Feb, so that may mean pre tax profit is more like £500K to £550K a month.

However, we also need to deduct 32% corporation tax and 6% mining tax. So £350K a month FCF is probably more likely.

Two other factors to consider are taxable profits offset by previous years losses. I'm no expert on this but we have made a loss in previous tax years so we MAY be able to offset some of this against Corp Tax liability so may not pay as much tax?? Second factor is GF and BE contribution. Looking at previous results I make that circa £40K to £50K FCF (After costs and tax).

So my best estimate is a MINIMUM of circa £400k FCF a month by end Q3 latest. If production is at the previously claimed 2500 oz a month and if we can off set some Corp tax against previously losses, it may be as high as £600K by end Q3 - but that is with a lot going in our favour IMHO.

Bottom line, even with a very conservative £400K FCF a month that will be transformational for a company with such a small MC. SP of 2.5p to 3p by end of the year latest (with just manica income alone) looks very reasonable and likely imho.

Obviously POG could well be higher by then and production could be nearer the 2500 oz a month and more than my conservative figures. If so mid 3p's would not be out the question.

of course AIMHO

James

I agree with your calcs. The DFS said 31K a year = 2580 oz a month. If correct thats about 75kg a month so I think CB is being overly optimistic when he said 80kg to 100kg. (Not like him eh? )

I'm expecting 2200 to 2400 a month when at full capacity.

As for % mark-up. I agree with you

POG 2000 700 costs = 1300 profit

20% increase in POG

POG 2400 700 cost = 1700 profit

So 20% increase in POG = 30% increase in profit

Iceberg

When you get a moment, what are your thoughts on Xtract not releasing any NPV r capex in the Open Pit Mining Interim Report?

Was that a Red flag in your opinion of it not being economic?

Is a pre concentration approach standard in these assessments and not a "last attempt" to make things work?

N/t to buy atm

For any amount.

Move up due???

I agree that CB overstated things here in a massive way, and his management of expectations (both output and timing) were terrible. But I also agree with the pod cast narrative that this has been oversold and FB more than covers the MC.

I expect the future high POC to ensure this ends well for SH's (may take a year or even 2 though) but I won't be believing anything CB says in any "interview" from now on. Now matter how "excited" or confident he seems :)

I will now only believe info in an RNS.

Xtract starts at 44min. Called "Bargain of the week"

Although its a paid promotion, at least we may be getting a wider audience via this media?

May be a few new investors will be tempted by the "Bargain of the week" :)

https://audioboom.com/posts/8277021-sunday-roast-easter-sunday-special-featuring-chill-brands-q-a-session-chll-genf-xtr-sed

Dani

If you have been smoking the "wacky backy" for years, then that may explain some of your posts :)

Very Good Ben :)

Actually some of that may be far to close to the truth to be funny :)

That said, If this hits 15p then we will all be laughing and no doubt all long gone.

Well, maybe not all. Some my be still be waiting for the "inevitable" £1 sp before selling..................

Have a Good Easter everyone.