Member Info for Andrew4444

SP is not down 8% in reality. There was a U/T trade after hours yesterday which caused a false close of up6%.

Its probably down 2% in reality

Has to be held by end of June with a 3 weeks notice period.

I would think CB will be leaving it as late as possible so Friday 30 June and an RNS calling it in early June??

Btw Dani and for clarity..

I agree with your main point that FB production will keep increasing and that the SP will appreciate .

I've made those points many times before.........but you may have also missed those posts of mine as well :)

Dani

" I am very surprised you have not commented on XTR stellar result at Manica YE 22."

That's wrong. I did that a few times right after the results were released.

"You say investors are waiting for Fairbride income to materialise - well it already has materialised but it's not yet reported "

That doesnt make any sense. Unless £ and $ are reported we have no idea what it is so it can't affect SP.

Explicitly it stated in the RNS "Sales and Income ex Fairbride"

No one has any idea what the £ and $ will be unless its reported. And it hasnt been yet.

So we have no idea what the income is or indeed actual profit is. You repeatedly making those figures up won't help either !

" bit more studying RNS's may make all the difference !"

You do irony so well Dani :)

Come ti pare, Dani :)

"once again approaching AGM time with no progress at BR in the last 9 months. "

I suspect this is because CB has had to "park" this project until we start getting the FB money in. Not a lot he can do that doesnt require some sort of payment to someone.

I don't think we will be accumulating the necessary funds from FB to do more drilling until Q4 as it ramps up (although we will be getting some into Xtract now no doubt) .

Phase 3 will have to happen in some fashion (albeit more limited than PH1 and 2). I can't see that starting until Q4 or even Q1 next neat year. We then have the drilling, assays and re assessment of results and re assessment of economic model.

My estimate of Bushranger sale next year may be a tad optimistic ! It may well be 2 years away but the good news is that copper will be much higher in 18 months to 2 years, so no doubt worth the wait imho.

LW

thats a fair point but re 40KG but we are now out of the rainy season and still increasing production.

I cant see it being 80kg at max production, but I thing it will be 60 kg by q4. If POG stays above $2K which it looks like doing - thats a lot of FCF to Xtract.

Ntm

If this share wasnt called Xtract and with the info we have re manica , albeit from a third party, I would agree that the sp should be higher, and move quicker

But legacy issues are no doubt holding the sp appreciation back. I doubt we will get another RNS quarterly update until late July / early August re manica. So I doubt the market will respond until official RNS news re income. That news will have to confirm £ and $ and for all the good info Empress are telling us re production, they can't convert that in actual bottom line profit for xtract. So I'm not sure that Empress updates are going to be the driver for sp appreciation. But I agree the indications are good.

Obviously that is all regards manica production, as that was the question, so if we get any good news on Bushranger re pre-concentration then SP may appreciate quickly after that news - which could be in a weeks time or months away !

"Just wondering when the markets will realise the real position at Xtract through the Manica income."

When we get actual £ or $ profit stated in an RNS. Not from CB in an interview.

So starting in about 3 months time imho

I would think a further production increase of 20% is likely from May as we are now leaving the rainy season which would no doubt hamper production a bit. That gives us circa 2K oz a month and that is the figure I've thought more realistic despite the official claims. It may be a bit more but I doubt it will be anything like the quoted figures. I may be wrong.

At 2k oz a month production I would think our profit AFTER TAX would be circa £400K - assuming POG stays at current level

I suspect due to obvious legacy issues with trust, the SP will not be reflecting any future income from FB until its confirmed in an RNS. When it is, and assuming it will be at that level of production, the sp should be going over 3p imho.

But not until we get those figures in an RNS ! And that may take another 3 to 6 months to get that confirmed

The way I see it playing out is the sp starts to rise on anticipation of a buy-out (some time next year).

The buy-out offer is at a premium to sp (20% to 40%)

We will probably be offered a split of cash and discounted shares in the major (I would think)

Assuming it it accepted the sp is recalculated after buy-out reflecting the value of remining assets.. so may be down to 4 or 5p?

This is a great and very optimistic discussion !

lets try and get back over 2p first :)

.

"Kwaks how much did you have to lose to be so persistently bitter and negative"

Here's your answer......

kwadoku
Posted in: ECR

No Opinion

Is this another pump and dump? 04 Oct 2021 10:33

Taken a hammering on BZT ........and a few other miners who seem more interested in a lifestyle company as opposed to a a money-making company. Doesnt help that Craig Brown has the same initials as Colin Bird.

I wonder how Kwad's book is going. The one titled "how colin bird ruined my life and if wasnt for him I'd have been a success" !

As Elsa would say... "Let it go, let it go " :)

If anyone is selling at this price then I think that's a mistake due to FB income yet to be declared.

If you write off all of Bushranger, which the sp has done so already imho, I can't see how this is not going higher after FB income officially declared.

I think the sells are from those that don't want to wait another 3 to 6 months for FB income to be confirmed in RNS and think they can make money quicker in another punt.

If their short term timescales are 3 months or less then they are probably right to sell.

For someone who said, a few times, that he didnt think twitter was appropriate to promote his companies, he's definitely had a change of heart :)

https://twitter.com/ColinBirdMining/status/1648618153314746368

"Na nothing brewing, is just the fundamentals that are now beginning to show company worth"

This is also my view. I would be surprised if these buys were from a leak or if we had RNS tomorrow. Volume decent but not exceptional.

However, the fundamentals that are probably driving this rise are imho ALL from FB future income. I don't think many will be buying on any of CB's predictions on Bushranger... just yet ! Plenty of unknows in that asset and we may find, soon enough, that its only going to be economical at a higher POC. Maybe, maybe not, but there is risk in that assumption esp with CB's history !

In short, this has been massively oversold and now logic is being used rather than emotion and FB income is driving the sp back to a level that is nearer to future predicted FB income valuation (circa 3p, maybe 3.5p)

Of course AIMHO (Cue RNS tomorrow then :).

I don't begrudge anyone selling either, but I think they will regret it, soon enough.

Thankfully the substantial increase in income soon from FB is, is not reliant on CB's forward guidance :)

I wonder if those selling and taking the profit are going to really regret doing so in a week or two? (or by tomorrow afternoon the way things are going :) )

I'm sure they are going to be very p off with their decision by the time first income from FB is released in a few months. I've no idea what sp will be then but its as good as certain it will be higher than when they sold today !

Re future POC.

There is a de-factor world recession. May be not a technical recession as GDP is not falling 2 consecutive quarters, but as good as a recession. POC should be on its knees because of the world economic slump / recession, but it has held up remarkably well against imho massive head winds.

When the world economy starts to improve, and maybe thats now happening re china, you dont need to be an expert to know what's going to happen to POC. And that's in a a normal economic cycle without the massive added incentive and tail winds of the Green Revolution further increasing copper demand.

Although the future POC will no doubt hit 6lb ($13K), I dont know if that will be in the next 1, 2 or 3 years. So we may have a bit longer to wait.

More by luck than good planning, the no sale by CB last year could be very fortuitous :)

circa 45% rise in less than 3 weeks will always attract profit takers I guess.

I don't think its a persistent seller, just some taking a good profit who bought in sub 1.5p may be?

Underlying trend is still up.........atm anyway :)

Yes Gixxer thats my view.

It usually goes up after n/t for a while .