Member Info for Andrew4444

The problem with the monthly FB income figures being quoted is that very few state £ or $ or, moreover, if its Revenue or Profit.

I think £250K FCF a month is a reasonable assumption but that's clear profit and after all tax paid (Corp and mining tax). That would be the equivalent to circa $500K a month revenue pre tax.

Completely agree with all your points James

"as forecasts have a big element of CB in them people are clearly applying a discount here on future cashflows "

looking at the sp, It appears the discount being applied is 100% :-) I'm sure that will change as soon as we get actual full results with profit stated to Xtract

"expectations are now skewed from failed PR strategy, but it doesn’t mean BR is a dud"

"Company looks fairly well positioned to me and imo undervalued at present mc."

I agree with the above points but because of the very poor expectation management by CB and his inaccurate forward guidance (being kind there) its difficult for many to have a lot of confidence CB will convert all the potential / good fundamentals into actual SP increase..

In short all trust has now gone with CB but that doesnt mean all future potential here has now gone.

It seems difficult for the sp to climb when in the back of your mind you have Cb's failed promises / predictions. Hence why many are only going to believe it when they see it ...........in an RNS.

May be unkind, but probably true, I suspect the sp may rise if a new CEO was announced. That may free-up many to then focus on the good fundamentals here rather than CB's historical baggage .

CB likes his football analogy's - well the players have heard the manager's team talk far too many times and it doesnt work anymore. A new manager with different tactics, but keeping the same side, will see an improvement in performance :)

Tbf CB has delivered an income producing mine at manica . I think it would be unfair not to acknowledge that success

As for JN taking some credit, CB was the one who stopped JN from flipping the asset and selling manica and that seemed to trigger CB's decision to remove JN and step in.

Many of the other CB failures seem to be in Zambia and for the life of me I can't see why CB keeps going down this route esp when there is so much more potential at FB to exploit the transition and sulphide ore.

If a new CEO came in now I'm sure he or she, would re focus on manica and BR, and bin the zambia treasure hunts.

It has to be held no later than 6 months after end of year results - so by 30 June latest

We must have at least 3 weeks calling notice so it has to be called by 9 june.

I suspect it will be held as late as possible to give cb as much time to get good news in - so Friday 30 June could be the date

We should be getting an RNS announcing AGM in next week or 2 weeks at latest.

Delay could be because CB is finalising buy-out from AA for $200M and wants to announce it just before AGM. I may be wrong about that though...........

"I sincerely hope there will be a whole bunch of LTHs who can give him both barrels. "

I think CB must be aware that he's going to get a deserved hard time at the AGM, so I would expect CB to try and use some tactics to deflect or reduce the heat on him by getting some news out soon, even if it has to be just via an interview, about FB income.

With POC being where its is, I'm struggling to see how we are going to get any good news re RC in the next 2 or 3 weeks so he will have to major on FB income.

No doubt we will get a few exaggerated claims mixed in with the facts.

Maybe he will bring out the old one liner about "$1m a month income this time next year !"

He hasnt used that one for some time. At least that should please Dani :)

No way will CB be able to let BR just drift away after all he said. This was the big one according to him, not like the many other smaller punts.

I think CB will major on FB at the AGM and we should have some indication of better results by then. I suspect CB will play the card of "still waiting for results" re RC and try and use delaying tactics re copper plays.

He will do his usual, "don't look over there, look over here"

I think it highly likely, probably inevitable, that the POC will be going over $12K but I think the timescales are going to take longer than many would want. I think it understandable many may have sold up as things are not happening in the previous time scales and will no doubt take longer.

I'm of the view no news is bad news, or at least not good news as CB would be shouting about it. Thats re Copper plays but we will no doubt get good news re FB when the actual profit is stated in an RNS. None of that appears to be priced in so I'm expecting the SP to move up Sharpley by end of the year due to FB.

I don't think POC will improve until next year as we will have head wins with the global economic slump for another 6 to 12 months. Thats why I doubt CB will be talking about the economics at RC for some time imho. I doubt RC is economic at this POC and even if were, it will be better to wait until early next year to talk about RC economics when POC should be much higher

Good news is that POG is much more important for us atm than POC as we have a Gold mine in production. That looks like it will remain circa $2K this year.

I'm still expecting sp to move to low / mid 3p's by end of year because of FB income, but we can forget about any Bushranger sale for 18 months + imho

"The next wave should see a more serious approach you would think"

And that's the $64,00 question (or that should be $64M question !)

Would the next wave see a more serious approach and "it really would be different this time" with CB.

I've been saying "this time it will be different" re Cb's latest forward guidance for many years !

Of course, may be next time it really will be different ! If you wait long enough and have enough money to keep betting on 9 Red - you should eventually win .

But whether you win more than you have already lost is another question :)

HZ

Another way of saying what your saying is that only a very small number of people know what CB is really like, so if we start to attract new investors they may naively and blindly believe what CB says re forward guidance.

That may well happen with a bit of good news to start the ball rolling. May be starting the new interest interest from FB income being announced?

If that starts the "new investors" coming in and a re rate of the sp, I wonder how many who are currently invested will take that as an opportunity to jump out, leaving the new naïve investors to deal with the consequences of an SP fall after actual results don't match CB's forward guidance? Rinse and repeat .....

Actually, I may have just described exactly how the Aim market works :)

Joe

Your bullet points of potential news releases could be correct, but the most important part in your post, imho, is when you stated....

" if the March presentation can be believed:"

The problem is many now don't believe any forward guidance timescales , and for good reason.

I hope I'm wrong but I don't think we will be hearing any news about RC for some time as we probably need more in fill drilling to improve the economics. The next likely news will be about FB income which will eventually drive the additional work required at RC .

As I say I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

The next RNS will probably be AGM calling notice in 2 weeks

The mention of CE made me check if he has posted at all on his other shares - since he stopped posting here.

Nothing for a year.

I know he was invested in other of CB's companies so its a bit surprising / worrying that he abruptly stopped posting on all of his shares at the same time.

I hope he's OK and nothing untoward happened to stop him posting ?

I was in email comms with him and he's not replied to any emails either.

I bit worrying tbh I hope he's OK.

"he knew long before us that the grades/tonnage etc from drilling campaigns to date down the Bush were going to be decently shy of what he was earlier hoping/expecting.. and instead of trying to manage back expectations on a gentle/incremental basis he just 'kept digging'."

Exactly NtM

Almost as if he thought if he kept saying it, it would eventually become true :)

Whistling in dark springs to mine !

CB was right to be overly optimistic if his intention was to raise the sp to get a placing away. I think he can be forgiven for that as the bigger picture of his intentions was to progress RC and therefore realise value.

However, after the second raise he didnt stop with his ramping and I remember exactly what he said in a zak interview

"we know we have the grades" and " I'm not bothered about the grades"

They were mostly circa 0.25% cu so these are the grades he was talking about

Then in the roast interview in Nov last year he said (I'm paraphrasing this bit)

" We would have a problem if all the grades were around 0.25% but we have the near surface grades into the 0.3% "

So the grades circa 0.25% were not a problem..... but then they were a problem.

That isnt CB being overly optimistic. He's been found out imho and his tone in the Nov roast interviews implied he was rattled and had no credible answers. So he tried to Gas light the shareholders and imply it was our lack of understanding rather then his failure to delivery. Desperate and transparent tactics imho.

Who, the hell is now going to believe a word he ever says in an interview ever again (waves at Dani :) )

All that said, more by luck than anything else, I really do think it will be OK # in the end, simply because of the future higher POC in 2024/2025 .

# OK being £100m buyout at some point in the future (after 10,000 lashes though, not just a 1000 ! )

"I hope you have a comprehensive file of figures with which to baffle the PI's "

From reading her many previous posts, I think its fair to say, she does :)

"will others want to buy us out like Kiwara when we have a whole stable of random projects alongside BR"

I don't see this as a problem. The buy-out valuation will be determined from BR sale ie £100M and shareholders will get the cash for their shares and then the sp will reflect the remaining valuation ie sp falls back down to 3 or 4p reflecting assets left ex BH ie mostly FB. I can't see the other assets stopping a buy-out for just BR.

"hence my concern anyone who bought at 6p+ won't see a return of their money, unless a buy out takes place."

If there is no news indication we have a viable asset in BR then I can't see sp going over 4P as valuation it will only be based on FB plus small copper deposits. Could be that all the news we get over next 12 months gives no indication that we have a major who would be interested. CB may have been found out as being overly optimistic...... or worse.

That said, I still remain confident that what may save us, and CB, is the POC going over $12K ..or much higher, but I doubt that will be happening for 1 or 2 years.

NtM

I think mismatch between SP and fundamentals is down to a complete lack of trust in CB now, after all his previous failed predictions against timelines and output.

Although it does seem bizarre that the market has not recognised ANY future FB income, that is the price CB now pays for this poor forward guidance. The market will now only respond to facts in the RNS imho.

We should have all those facts re FB income in an RNS in the next 2 to 5 months and even if the income levels are not as CB previously stated, its going to be high enough to see a substantial SP rerate closer to 3p than 2p imho.

The saying "you can fool some of the people some of the time but not all of the people all the time" springs to mind.

AGM in 5 to 6 weeks should be interesting :)

Snap howzap !!