Member Info for Andrew4444

"although one can loosely compare it to a weather forecast in that it is based on assumptions that are made at any given time. Once there is a change in the meteorological/ geological picture in this case, then the longer term forecast changes"

Sorry dont agree with that analogy. That gives CB far too much of a "get out"

using that same but better analogy, it would be like the met office giving a forecast of very hot and sunny in January, then saying we've changed our view as its now -5 degrees outside and snowing !

It was never going to be hot and sunny in January !

That was an excellent interview and worth a listen to again, as it clearly shows the utter BS he talked at the time.

Predictions for FB, Eureka and BR. All completely way out and not even close.

"Target date for 2mt or DTm end of April but if we miss it it wont be quarters just a couple of months"

He must have known at the time that a lot of what he was saying (about all the projects) was utter BS, and not just overly optimistic.

You can't believe a word he says.

"When should we expect Q2 results please?"

Last few have been announced just over 3 months after period end, so that would mean early Oct if its the same time period.

CB said at the AGM Q2 would be announced in a couple of weeks.

If CB is correct and can be trusted, then they should be announced anytime now to end of this month.

So I'm going for early October :)

MM's will currently take 1.5m at 1.36p

been a long time since they would take that many in a block.

When you say "They mentioned" I assume you mean CB.

I remember CB saying in November (years ago) we would soon be betting $200K a month income from Eureka by early next year.

I think I'll believe any Kakuyu income when its declared in an RNS !

I'm only believing what I read in an RNS from now on.

I just don't believe a word CB says anymore (outside of an RNS).

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-q1-2023-gold-production-update-6j1hf2jkaktvc3m.html

Just had another look at Q1 results and there were a few clues in there on what we could expect for Q2.

Plant throughput

"Clear indications are that post the heavy rains, results are improving significantly and Q2 2023 is showing a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month

May 2023 throughput was 43,200 tonnes per month

Grade

"A significant amount of additional close-spaced drilling was completed during Q1 2023 specifically to improve grade control and the ability to better predict the Run of Mine grade that could be anticipated by the processing plant. This work had an almost immediate impact on improvement in the run of mine grade with the average rising from 1.2g/t Au in February Q1 2023 to a current reported grade for May Q2 2023 of approximately 1.8g/t Au"

So for month of May 1.8g/t at 43,200 tpm = 77.76KG = 2500 troy ounces = 575 oz for Xtract for May

Assuming $1900 POG and $900 Cost that's $575K Pre tax profit. Boa Esperanza and Guy Fawkes usually add about another $50K a month so that's circa $625K a month. Obviously that's assuming April and June will be the same as May and they may not be, but that gives an indication of the pre tax profit.

If April and June are similar to May, that would mean Q2 results would be circa 66% better than Q1's. Q3 Results are usually the best quarter due to the very dry period, so we should at least equal or better Q2 results.

I think when we get Q2 results the sp will start to appreciate and continue to do so as we get Q3 results.

I just don't know if that SP appreciation means 2p or 3p.....or higher???

AIMHO

DYOR

Despite a few holders who seemed to have had enough and wanted out after the AGM, the SP is broadly where we started on Monday morning. Bit of U shaped week tbh.

No doubt there are still some that are looking to exit at a higher SP but the fact that they did not take advantage of the ease to sell in bulk for some time this week (MM would take 1.2M for 1.35p today and 1M at 1.3P this week ) shows that many don't see this as a basket case of a share which is only going down. When its as bad as that then its a case of jump out at any price before it falls again.

I would expect the weak hands to fully sell up in the next spike after, possibly, FB income RNS declared or maybe Economic model update? No doubt it will be a bumpy ride with some exiting as the sp moves up.

I still expect this to at least double from this level (at some point) and maybe, with a bit of luck 3 or even 4 bag over next 2 years?

That said, in 2 years time, I doubt many will be looking back and pleased that they didnt sell when sp was 7p last year though :). I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it !

I didnt buy anymore at 7p, but there was no way I was going to sell at 7p after CB's many comments.

It was definitely going into double figures aftter the buy-out wasn't it ??? :)

I'm happy to hold as my bet is its going higher from this level, but I wont be believing anything CB says ever again in an interview.

Lucky

You previously said

" I still hold 2 million shares. ..... trying to sell in volume, is difficult. If I try selling the rest this week, I imagine I'll get an average of 1.3 for them? Maybe less?"

If you want more than the 1.3p you could have got today, then I think you should be joining the "Pump brigade" as you have characterised them :)

Or at least not make posts that could be seen as negative .

Ofc that's assuming you still have any shares left to sell. You may not have.

NtM

Likewise.

I was ready at 1.25 p ASK - then every 0.05p drop

It may still happen but not too sure now. Nearer we get to Q2 results the more unlikely it is that some will sell IMHO

Bashers need to work harder....

now 1.44p to buy

sell 1m at 1.30p

Down 10.5% but 4.3% of that was left over from Friday close due to the u/t trade. Real 10% fall on Friday was shown as 6% due to u/t trade .

So today a real fall of circa 6%. Not great but not the blood bath some thought after some negative comments post AGM.

In late afternoon I could sell 500K at 1.43p. No big sells though.

I will wait until Friday before claiming "panic over" but so far most seem content to stay on board.

Hi james

Sorry I should have been clearer.

I'm looking at a higher POC than currently , hence the 2025 time horizon when POC should be well over $10K.

I'm not saying 3p at todays POC.

A more pessimistic view would be to just ignore all the low grade at BR and just assume only the high grade is of any value (I'm not saying that's true but I'm being pessimistic).

This high grade doesnt need ore sorting

192mt at 0.33%cuEq = 0.63m

At very low assumptions of $6K POC used in a buyers calc (it was $7700k POC used for cadia assumptions ) and just 1% inground value, that would work out at $38M value. That's about 3.4p at current 856M shares in issue.

Call it 3p to be even more cautious

FB must be worth 2p min when market actual sees the income results in RNS.

The final return here will not be anything like what CB said and "just" 3 years late (assuming buy-out 2025) !! - but I would not be selling at this price for the above reasons.

To avoid any misunderstanding, I'm not saying that everyone will be making money here as I am aware that 5p is broadly many people's average here- but explaining why I would not be selling at this price.

AIMHO

DYOR

I believe the figure CB mentioned at the meeting was 500k and also a 1m ? Not sure if that was £ or $

I agree that it would seem strange to need a raise for that amount with the FB income coming in. May be thats why CB did not say we would definitely need to raise .

"From what was said by people who were at the AGM, Colin emphasised the need for a further placing to pay for blue sky projects ?."

He didnt say we would definitely need a placing to fund the purchase of any other projects.

He said that he thought we could fund the purchase from income but if something too good to turn down was available we may need to part fund that with a placing. That was my understanding.

I really hope he doesnt go for any new projects but if / when he does the amount of funding will be small beer and that's assuming we cant fund from income. (which is possible)

CB will no doubt be driving up the sp before any placing (If required) or just after good news has been announced so I suspect it will be done above 2p and for circa 5% to 10% .

Thats assuming we do have a placing and that was not stated as definite at the meeting.

That was because of the U/T trade on Friday

Ask / Bid is same as it was just before close on Friday...at the moment

BTTS

Sorry if you thought my post was insulting I didnt mean it that way.

I assumed you were not at the meeting so I apologise

Lucky

I'm sure BTTS is Gwyn on TG.

You did not tell anyone to sell.

You gave your own interpterion of what you heard and stated your views.

Up to everyone to make their own minds up and be responsible for their own decisions.

BTTS

Your decision to sell of course but what I find strange is that you were not at the AGM, as far as I can tell from reading your posts.

This means you're basing your decision on third hand reports, that lack the nuance required and may be wrong or have a different interpretation than if you heard what was said.

I can understand lucky selling up as he was there so he had first hand experience of what was said, but your info could be distorted. You said you sold 750K Friday and will do another 250K tomorrow so thats about £15K sold on nothing more than what an anonymous poster said on a bulletin board?

Not picking on Lucky but he was the only poster who was negative on what he heard at the AGM so I doubt you're selling because of what anyone else said - if so then the same point applies..

Whatever you do I wish you good luck in your next investment.