Member Info for Andrew4444

back of *** packet calcs (and not that scientific) .........

it looks as though q2 production will be circa 66% greater than q1 from looking at last few rnss

if so the profit should be about £1.03m in q2. so about £350k a month profit

that is what i expected . but it would be nice to have that confirmed :)

Good news

"Based on the assumption that Fair Bride operates within its targeted parameters and no new business is consummated, the Directors do not anticipate the need for funds to be raised in the twelve-month period from the date of authorising the consolidated information"

Bad news.

No Q2 results which should be good to very good. We got this bit

"results are improving significantly and production for the three months ended 30 June 2023 ("Q2 2023") are expected to show a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month."

But no hard numbers.

We will need those numbers for any significant sp increase.

"A couple of 500K sells ?"

No. One 500K sell and one buy

1.3p is a buy

about same number of buys and sells

if there was a leak of news (good or bad) we would not be at this volume :)

Andy

Thanks for that.

“Also H1 royalty earned was c$700k so @ 3.375% and assumed $1900 per oz => c340kg by my reckoning for H1 production”

Assuming my 70kg is correct for all three months in Q2 that’s 210kg total for Q2. That would be 66% higher than Q1. So Q1 production would be circa 42kg a month = 126 kg in Q1 total

126 + 210 = 336kg for H1

Not far off your 340kg H1 prediction.

Others may disagree, but I think that will see the sp in the 2p's

"Simply Andrew, yesterday you were predicting/anticipating a 50% rise in XTR`s SP within the next 3 weeks or so”

Conveniently missed out my main point. That’s assuming the Q2 income results are as I believe they will be.

You may be right that even £400K a month profit will not do much for this share and that all your concerns and criticisms of the company are valid ie It’s a dog and will be for years sitting at this sp level. I just don’t understand why they need to keep popping back here on a regular occasion to tell us how bad this is.

Well actually , I probably do understand why you keep doing that 😊

Billy

If you have a look at VB's posting history, that will tell you all you need to know about his motivation for making that

"non-sequitur" post.

No doubt another embittered ex holder :)

What's coming up is, probably, very good Q2 results from FB and an SP rise well above 2p IMHO

Last few years Half yearly has always been released on 30 September . That's a Saturday this year so could be Friday 29 sept or Monday 2 October. Not long to go.

I'm expecting sp to be above 2p by early October after these results.

Why?

See my previous posts and thoughts a month or so ago...

AIMHO

DYOR

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/XTR/manica-q1-2023-gold-production-update-6j1hf2jkaktvc3m.html

Just had another look at Q1 results and there were a few clues in there on what we could expect for Q2.

Plant throughput

"Clear indications are that post the heavy rains, results are improving significantly and Q2 2023 is showing a marked improvement with plant throughput increasing from 30,000 tonnes per month in Q1 2023 to current nameplate capacity of more than 40,000 tonnes per month

May 2023 throughput was 43,200 tonnes per month

Grade

"A significant amount of additional close-spaced drilling was completed during Q1 2023 specifically to improve grade control and the ability to better predict the Run of Mine grade that could be anticipated by the processing plant. This work had an almost immediate impact on improvement in the run of mine grade with the average rising from 1.2g/t Au in February Q1 2023 to a current reported grade for May Q2 2023 of approximately 1.8g/t Au"

So for month of May 1.8g/t at 43,200 tpm = 77.76KG = 2500 troy ounces = 575 oz for Xtract for May

Assuming $1900 POG and $900 Cost that's $575K Pre tax profit. Boa Esperanza and Guy Fawkes usually add about another $50K a month so that's circa $625K a month. Obviously that's assuming April and June will be the same as May and they may not be, but that gives an indication of the pre tax profit.

If April and June are similar to May, that would mean Q2 results would be circa 66% better than Q1's. Q3 Results are usually the best quarter due to the very dry period, so we should at least equal or better Q2 results.

I think when we get Q2 results the sp will start to appreciate and continue to do so as we get Q3 results.

I just don't know if that SP appreciation means 2p or 3p.....or higher???

AIMHO

DYOR

In recent years H1 results have always been released 30 September . That is a saturday so I would expect them to be released Monday 2 October??

I would also expect the sp to be over 2p a few days after they are released and after the market starts to see, with some certainty, what the FB income / profit is

AIMHO

"All your posts are suggesting BR will never be sold."

FFS. I've never said or implied that and said many times I think BR will be sold at a higher POC.

Dani (or whatever you are calling your self). I've assumed you were a little eccentric or just a wind up, but it appears you are just trolling this board for a reaction.

Finally filtered ! (It took me long enough)

HZ

I think you are being a tad emotional and hypocritical when you say I was making a "personal attack " on you.

It wasnt a personal attack, just my view based on your comments over the years. From looking at the number of thumbs up my post got, many seem to agree with me :)

No more of a personal attack than your view that I am being "narrow minded" or your comment about me throwing my "rattle out of my pram"

with respect though.....

"What is wrong with bowing out eventually leaving a company that could theoretically expand exponentially under its growth strategy"

Nothing wrong with that. A very sensible approach. But I dont think that's what CB wants because if it was he would IMHO just focus on FB expansion. That could be his legacy, and a good one, but that doesnt seem to be enough for him. That's my point !

"Just wondering if you are not serious about the longevity and growth of the company anymore and are just wanting out now?"

With respect HZ that's just typical of your response to any view which doesnt conform to the "sunlit uplands" view. Why would I want to leave just before the Q2 results are coming out which I have already said I think will be very good and should see the sp nearer 3p than 2p.

I didnt say this was a bad deal but my view was that I think the FB income could have been used in a better way. Not an overly damming comment and I also acknowledged that this deal may work out. Added to my previous view a month ago, of good Q2 results soon and an sp above 2p then, it is rather a strange conclusion to come to that I "want out".

You seem to treat this investment like a football fan supports his favourite team. Always supporting the team irrespective of the results and showing unwavering loyalty and fiercely protective against any slight criticism.

I'd rather take a more analytical and less emotional approach to my investments !

Its high risk as we may spend $2m and get nothing for it. Just like the previous other similar ventures. CB's track record on these "lets have punt" projects is poor.

I'm not saying we can't do both projects (FB and exploration) , but focusing on the less risky project first would be my preferred option. Well, until income was higher.

Then again, if I was nearly 80 and knew I only had another few years left in this game to hit the big one, then I'd probably do what CB has just done.

After all, its not his own money he's gambling with :)

"I left the AGM with the understanding that XTR could elect not to contribute to the sulphide plant and then we would continue to get 23% "

Correct James

IMHO I would prefer we put all our money in that less risky option first. I'm not saying this new venture is a terrible idea but I think there are better risk / reward options ie FB upgrade

As I say, maybe this time CB gets lucky but many past ventures like this have not ended well. I just get the impression CB knows he's running out of time before he makes the next big discovery so will be buying more lottery tickets in his last few years to end on a big win.

The FB income is not gong to be so much that by using some of it on other projections it wont have an impact on FB development.

CB has mentioned £8M (I think) for the sulphide plant . Id rather all FB income went on that project tbh

I think it a better use of the FB money to go for a less high risk strategy (FB development) which will ensure more income and for longer for FB.

Then go for the treasure hunt approach when FB income is more robust, has doubled after sulphide plant built.

Phase 3 = phase 2

For Phase 1

" Xtract anticipates funding this exploration expenditure from existing resources and current ongoing operational activities."

$2M over 24 months is about £65K a month on average so well within anticipated income stream from FB

I suspect phase 3 will require a raise but this will only be done if phase 2 was a success so sp will be much higher then than now.

I'm not saying this is a bad move (or good) but I wish CB would spend the FB income on developing FB tbh and building the sulphide plant. He probably finds that too boring and he will not make a name for himself doing that !

More high risk treasure hunts. May be he will get lucky this time !

Idiot/master investor judgment is transitory

Anyone who sold at 7p was a master investor as sp has crashed since then. However, If SP ever goes above 7p, maybe after a buy-out, or poc hitting $15K in 2 years then they would have been an idiot to sell at 7p

Imagine selling at 7p and taking all that profit, then we did get the buy-out CB implied was soon....we would have made more in that rise than we have lost, on paper, in the fall to 1.5p.

It really is so obvious what you should have done after the event !

I will make my final judgement call (on my investment assessment) when I have sold all shares here, but whatever that call is, I could have done so much better if I had not believed CB so much :)

The half yearly report has always been released on 30 Sept for last three years

Q2 production update often been released on the same day or near this date so it looks very likely that 30 sept will be D -day for both updates.

I guess if anyone thinks the FB Gold production figures will be good then they have the next 6 weeks to buy-in before a potential rerate?

(Not too sure if rerate means 2p, 2.5p or 3p though :)

HZ

I am assuming and hoping that the next quarterly report will contain actual profit made from FB, not just the production figures. I think that is what the market wants to see and not , what could be, financially misleading production figures.

I can't see how the Q2 production figures are not going to be substantially higher looking at Q1 RNS "clues"

That said, the market may be thinking, with good reason, why is there not complete transparency with the income and profit figures? Yes production will be better in Q2 but what does that actually mean to the profit?

Until that doubt is allayed, then the sp may not appreciate. If CB legacy issues were not apparent, then I suspect it would be well over 2p on future assumptions alone.

Well that's they way I say it.

"The market is very much taking a Doubting Thomas attitude to his record of overpromising and under achieving"

Yes it has and understandably so. But Its actually gone too far the other way now IMHO.

The sp went up too far on sentiment and false promises, and now its gone down too far (IMHO) on sentiment and not believing anything that is said...even in an RNS it seems !