Member Info for Andrew4444

Figures were disappointing, in fact the worst ever against production figures. Some good news is that we are now getting $1388 an ounce rather than circa $1200. As poor as these figures are it really is not a big issue in the grand scheme of things.
As I've said a few times before the alluvial income is peanuts and it will not be the driver for any rerate. Even very good alluvial figures will be insignificant against projected FB income.

One observation though - CB's comments re alluvial income. In the last update, he said the first month was the second best month ever and was reported to say the last month was very good. Looking at the total quarterly figures I can only assume the contractors took the second month off ! After his comments I don't think anyone would have expected these prod figures to be the worst ever. Raising expectations and then not delivering, will always lead to disappointment.

He has now given first month prod figures for Q4 which are the broadly the same as last quarter first month. But why also state, in the highlights, the gross contractor revenue figure and use full current POG in the calc? $700K does look impressive, but it's irrelevant to Xtract. We don't get full POG and moreover Xtract only get circa 10% of the total contractor revenue !! That's probably why total contractor income has never been announced in the quarterly updates.

I'm sure he wasnt trying to spin things ......

H50

Thanks for that - much appreciated.

Hopefully CB is being completely honest with you and we will get, if not good news, but at the very least, neutral news next. I was a bit worried that the delay was due to bad news coming next. You've alleviated my fears.

Lucky

Whenever there is a very big buy or sell and the sp does not move you can be sure its a rollover or bed and ISA.

I ignore any very large trades that have no affect on the sp as they are not current or 'real' trades.

Lucky

From reading your last two posts you are disagreeing with me. I am indeed saying we should get an RNS confirming the plant construction has started (whenever it does start). Construction to me means physical construction not initial paper work or placing orders or making agreements - that can change / be cancelled.

I can't see anywhere in the Sept 4th RNS where it says construction (as in physical build) has now commenced.

Lucky

Sorry don't agree.

Orders can be cancelled, problems can occur, circumstances can change. I can't believe they won't confirm construction has started if / when that happens.

.....Not just alluvial Q3 figures, but IMHO much more importantly, re the CIL plant build progress. Hopefully it can be confirmed construction has started ?? Or at least an update of when it will. For me, that's much more important then any small beer alluvial income.

From 29 May RNS....

MMP has agreed to commence construction (as demonstrated by the placement of an order for the CIL), as soon as possible but in any event no later than 1 November 2019 (with a long stop date of 1 February 2020).

You'll be waiting some time before this hits .075 p !! It will need to go down by circa 95%

Unlikely :)

So KPZ arnt the crooks and charlatans that a few mischievous new posters said they were. Well, they're not according to CB's investigations! Lets hope he's right :)

Whether this agreement sees a substantial increase in income remains to be seen. LTHs will remember the o'kiep copper dumps which were,supposedly, going to transform the company and rerate the SP. All that happened was we spent $1.5M and got virtually no revenue.

Hopefully this will be different. We shall see.

Gary

'I can only presume the share is tainted and left well alone because of its previous missing of (everything) targets'

Spot on. I've made this point before. The legacy issues here mean that many are saying 'show me the money' before believing the potential - and therefore investing. The 'money' being actual income, announced in an RNS - not pod casts predictions. Many will now only 'believe it when they see it' due to past failed predictions.

If this share was not called Xtract and had no legacy issues, the sp would be substantially higher IMHO.

Lucky

I can't believe they were bonefide buys as the sp would have increased. Probably roll overs / bed and Isa.

...confident for the future. Another 1m buy.

Maybe he knows what's around the corner :)

Lucky

CB said we should be getting 800K to 1m a month by the end of next year. He didnt state if that was profit or income, or £ or $ so big variance in actual net monthly income in £ depending how you interpret what he said.

As I;ve said, many times before, I would not read too much into what CB says wrt time scales or predictions. They have often been wrong as he tends to be very optimistic and IMHO give aspirations rather then realistic predictions. That said, I am very confident that income levels will be substantially higher in a years time than they are now, therefore I am confident that the sp will be substantially higher than it is now.

Regarding your recent question re 45KG alluvial gold. We get about 10% of total alluvial gold revenue so about $200K a quarter. But take off costs means a very modest profit of between circa $30K to $50K a month - depending on costs. Nothing wrong with that, but its clear now that the alluvial operations are not going to be the driver for an sp rerate. That will be FB hard rock IMHO.

Another one you may want to look at is XTR.

Nearly went bust 2 years ago. About to start production next year with 23% JV Nil Capex. No debt. MC Just £5M.

Massive rerate likely over next 6 to 12 months.

DYOR

ASK increased at the end of the day (last trade was a buy) so that means either the two big sells were historical or that there is an equally big buy being worked.

If they were current bona fide sells, then the SP would be substantially down.

It wasnt.

Hello CE

I agree with you that CB has not been lying.

I agree with you when you said he has been over optimistic with his predictions and he may even, on occasion, have been misleading.

I guess that means we are in agreement !

PYO

All the 1.14 or 1.145 trades are all buys but showing as sells.

Last two trades were fairly big buys. The ask is now on the up . Bottom reached and now moving-up possibly?

Hello CE

I'm not too sure why you mention the placing when discussing CBs honestly. I stated at the time that no one should have been surprised at the placing as CB had given a very heavy hint at the Investor show that a placing was coming, or at least very possible. It was actually a moment of honestly and openest by CB. I was not aware he ever said that there was not a placement coming anytime soon - I think he said the opposite at the investor show!

My issue with CB's 'honesty', is really due to him saying that many things will happen, even in RNSs, that don't happen. There are many examples. Actually, I think we are in complete agreement on this issue. What you posted early in the year, is exactly my view and the point I was making...

You said... " Yes, I agree that CB has been over optimistic with his predictions and he may even, on occasion, have been misleading"

NtM

My comparison to CB here would be Boris with Brexit. Boris may not be the most honest person, you can’t be believe all he says and he uses hyperbole / states aspirations, but most who want Brexit to happen would rather have him in charge – with all his faults, because they believe he will deliver. I’m of the same opinion with CB and his ability to deliver for shareholders here. I think you have to take the details of what CB says (timescales, income figures etc ) with a large pinch of salt – actually maybe with a sack of salt ! But the big picture does, IMHO, look very promising.

In simple terms:
1. I can’t see how the mine won’t get built as orders have been placed and even some deposits made. 77% of revenue with a high POG will keep MMP focused and determined.
2. We know what’s under the ground at FB and all costs due to DFS .
3. Gold price and 23% deal ensures there will be substantial income for Xtract which will definitely ensure significant SP re-rate.

But I’m just not so sure when it will all happen - almost certainly later than when CB has said, but I’m sure it will happen.

Anyone buying in at this SP will almost certainly be in significant profit some time next year.

PS
# I'm not saying I think Brexit is good or bad. That was just an analogy !!

John

Unfortunately my 10 bag scenario is against a much lower sp as if this is saved there will be dilution (IMHO) so it could be a 10 bag from 1p to 2p. Even if this survives, LTHs will not be making the massive money they thought but they may substantially ameliorate their loses.

I've been in aim many years and many times the loyal LTHs get stuffed, only for the late comers to make the money on the backs of all the LThs risk taking and investments. I've been on the other side of this many times before !

James

You are correct he did explicitly say, in a recent pod cast, that we are not quite covering all costs. I was struck by that comment because it went against his many previous claims. I suspect he finally conceded that point as he realised that anyone could clearly see ,in the next set of accounts, that we were not profit making as a company.

I feel the advantage we would have of being slightly profit making (if that were true) is lost by the lack of trust some may now have in CB in what he says. As I’ve said many times before, you can’t believe all he says all the time. His deadlines and performance targets are another good example.

All will no doubt be forgiven if he delivers !