Member Info for Andrew4444

Lucky

Sorry, just seen your post. Been away. Nexus arrangement was a legacy issue going back some time. Can't remember the full details. I think we owed them some money - but had none so made the arrangement!

Nexus going doesn't mean the alluvial production is about to go south. If Sino Mk2 went then that would be more significant. Don't forget the alluvial work was not done to generate an income stream for Xtract, its what we have to do as an enabler to do the hard rock mining.

Lucky

Your more negative view is a welcomed alternative perspective to those that can't see any possible down side to this. And for balance it's welcomed.

That said, the perverse 'advantage' we have with alluvial income is that its so low that if it doubles or halves it will not make a significant difference to the rerate possibility or share price - as we saw this afternoon with the RNS.

Lets say you're right and alluvial income falls. Current Alluvial income will have to fall significantly for the future net levels to be worse than the current 50% deal. I doubt that will happen. And even if it did we may be looking at a few $K a month less profit (not revenue). Here's a Brucy bonus that many may not know. We still have over $100K of unsold gold (check all RNS for quarterly figures and you'll see)

In addition, Nexus can't 'know' what the future alluvial grades will be as by definition, alluvial income is random and a lottery. Moreover, and this probably is the most important point, If it was as bad as you say then Sino MK2 would be the ones leaving. I bet they are more than happy to stay looking at the money they are making. Alluvial production is very profitable and plenty of money is being made - Just not by Xtract or Nexus!! I see it as simple as this. Its small beer for nexus so they are off to make more money somewhere else.

Any future rerate will be driven by FB. Detailed, DFS, robust, costed, known project. Copper plays are unknows which may or may not be profitable.

An RNS which heavily implies that income will increase must be good news - so the RNS is good news. I say implies, as we don’t know what the future alluvial income figures will be.

However, the reason for just only one small buy after the RNS is probably because most now realise that the alluvial income is peanuts and will never be the driver for a rerate- even when that income potentially doubles ! The catalyst will be Fairbride income, not money found down the back of the sofa.

We also have the possibility that we have to pay over $100K in settlement. However, even IF that happens it will only mean that the potential extra money (from the doubling of the share agreement) is delayed a few months. So even in that worse case scenario - it isn’t that bad.

So why did nexus terminate the agreement. The alluvial income is so small beer that it isn’t worth continuing with this arrangement. They may have been waiting and hoping for production and grades to improve but they now know that’s very unlikely - so have gone.

All in all this this a positive RNS, but nowhere near as good as some would like to believe. The fact that there was just one small buy after the RNS says it all.

Kalengwa Processing Copper Project Agreement

FROM RNS 15 july. The Parties will decide no later than 30 November 2019, whether to commit to the construction of the Large Scale Processing Plant and, should the Parties mutually agree to proceed, this is to be satisfied by commencement of the construction of the Large Scale Processing Plant by no later than February 2020 or, if both Parties agree for it to be delayed, August 2020.

I wonder if we will get an update tomorrow / Monday re the agreement to commit to the construction of the processing plant?? Deadline is Saturday to decide.

CE
Well it obviously wants you then!

And not me.

I'm expecting another RNS again tomorrow...

Well there's the 500K buy.

CB? We'll know tomorrow I guess..

So next question is... will we see CB continue to load up in 500K buys each day?

May see another 500K buy today but obviously wont know if its from CB until next day.

Either way - it looks encouraging :)

to the 500K buy today, I wonder if that was CB again??

Not many 500K buys over last few days and it has been CB twice on two consecutive trading days : Friday and Monday.

I wonder if we will get an RNS tomorrow confirming another 500K buy today by him??

May be that's an astute observation by me or, quite possibly, complete nonsense conclusion :)

We'll know soon enough !

Ntm

I agree that CB will probably get there in the end. But the journey will be like a drunk man staggering home in a zig zag formation, bumping into things, falling over, nearly getting killed crossing the road, and no doubt getting into a fight :)

LW

Yes, Income timescales are key. That is why I was surprised and a little concerned that CB started the Zambia copper ventures before we had manica income. There is a danger he is taking on too much too soon. A high risk strategy.

NtM

I can't agree more that he's run out of buy in anticipation credits. Or put another way, we now need actual results not talk of potential results. Worth remembering and noting our actual income levels are broadly the same now as they were about 2 years ago.

Any meaningful increase in revenue from any of these projects should see a big rise in the sp. I think it will happen, but not when CB has implied. He said at the investor show in the spring that he is 'sure' we will get good earnings on a regular basis before year end (See link below). I doubt he will be right on that timescale as well. I hope he proves me wrong, for once.

http://www.ukinvestorshow.com/videos/xtract-resources-plc/

10 mins 20 seconds in

Hello CE

Ahhrr but don't forget there are 52 weeks in a year...so may be CB means in the coming 52 weeks :)

I hope that's not too close to the truth to be funny !

So it looks as though drilling will commence soon. Hmm, we’ll see. It’s interesting to note CB’S previous comments on drilling time scales: In May RNS he said Eureka drill ready, August RNS Eureka ready for fast track drilling and Kalengwa - near term drilling.

Some of what he has said in this RNS is a cut and paste of previous RNS. I wonder if the intention of this RNS was to halt the continued sp slide rather than give a meaningful update? If so, it may have worked?

A better way to stop the slide and see a big rise would be to confirm that MMP have commenced physical construction of the CIL plant. 1 Nov deadline has gone. I wonder why he hasn’t stated that yet?

May be the simplest explanation why the sp is falling is because the last alluvial figures were not good and raised trust issues (again). CB implied or at least gave the impression Q3 would be, at the very least reasonable, however, the production figures were the worst ever .

May be that put doubt in the minds of some that the CB's future income figures or timescales may not be met and it will take longer than anticipated for the rerate to happen. QED they sell now - no doubt keeping an eye on events here to come back as soon as those things CB keeps saying will happen- actually do start to happen.

NtM

I don't think I've ever seen Dragon Slayer / Spaceman make a negative post about Xtract! Every RNS he seems to say how pleased he is with the news . Whatever it is. I think if the co went bust tomorrow he would find a way of saying its actually good news! Its a real shame he is so delusional and closed minded as he has been in this a long time, does have a lot of background knowledge and could make a meaningful contribution to analysis and discussion. But when anyone keeps saying the same thing over and over again, irrespective of the news flow and events, you quickly realise they offer nothing. A lot of what he says is non sequitur.

I suspect the sp is down due to 2 things. 1. Trust issues with CB (again) due to very poor prod figures against an implication of reasonable or good results. Can we believe everything he says all the time? 2. The 6 month timescale he mentioned in the pod cast. Many may think, for good reason Cb's 6 months could be longer so a few may decide to sell now and make a quick buck somewhere else and come back later.

That approach may be wrong as we may get some good news quicker than some think, before xmas. I guess if anyone believes all will be fine next year then buying at this price would not be a bad idea. But sp may of course go down further before we get any more good news. I think the news of additional management is very good news as this, to me anyway, means CB really does think prospects are good (actions not just words) so he is getting ready for the uplift in production and planning.

Alternatively I'm just being delusional, and turning into Dragon Slayer :)

LW

The alternative view is that new and additional management team could expedite income generation and therefore the rerate? I've often thought CB spreads himself too thinly over his many companies. Tbh I'm not too bothered about short term fluctuations. Anyone buying now has a very good chance of being in profit in 12 months time. AIMHO

I've just seen Dragon Slayer / spaceman's post on other BB. What a star! He's recently accused me of having many user names and being a MM by misinterpreting my posts and being selective of what I said. Apparently I may be trying to get the sp down so CB can fill a buy order!

I hope he doesnt stop posting. he' s comedy gold :)

LW

I understand your scepticism.

As I've said before CB gives aspirations rather then realistic forecasts (IMHO) so I wont be too confident about his income figures for FB and copper play actually happening as stated - or timescales. What did he say a few months ago, $800K to $1m a month by end of 2020.

That said, with so much going on and with so many potential revenue streams I would be very surprised if income is not substantially higher this time next year (not difficult) and therefore the sp substantially higher. Even at a fraction of his predicted income levels the sp will rerate.

It probably wont happen in the time scales or figures as implied or stated by CB but I think the rerate will happen.

Alluvial income is irrelevant to the company rerate so these figures should not have produced a flicker in the sp. I suspect the reason why the sp went down was not due to fundamentals now being worse - they obviously are not, but because of disappointment that expectations were not being met. When CB said the first month of Q3 was the second best ever month, it was not unreasonable to extrapolate that month and think that Q3 would be at least reasonable and at best very good. So to find out that Q3 was the worst ever against production figures is obviously going to be disappointing.

CB has yet again given a hint at expectations for Q4 by stating 15kg for the first month. If he just said nothing prior to the results then I doubt the sp would have moved against these figures.

Its frustrating as the future of the co look good and the alluvial income is not relevant to any rerate so the disappointment is against his implied results not against the fundamentals.

I agree that it looks like a new CEO is going to be appointed. Good move. CB is 76 this month.

James

I guess it depends if how you interpret the 'last month comment'. Last month of the quarter or first month of Q4. Notwithstanding that, as HawaiifiveO was asking CB about alluvial progress, I think it would have been more honest of CB to have at least hinted that the last quarterly results were going to be bad or at least average - (they were the worst ever prod figures) and not just talk about and focus on one good month. After speaking to CB it left HawaiifiveO thinking that the alluvial's are moving in the right direction. That clearly isn't happening. Obviously we can only go by the brief H50 gave us.

'I asked him about the alluvials - he commented that last month was a good month so it does look like they are moving in the right direction'.

NtM

Yes I am also reasonably confident that with so many 'irons in the fire' and options for income, we should see a rerate sometime next year and hopefully moving-up to my circa 6p price prediction in the future.

CBs alluvial comments were, if anyone needed it, a reminder to take a lot of what he says with a pinch, or should that be sack, of salt. As many have said before, there are some trust issues with CB. As H50s chat with CB took place after Q3 figures were known to CB, you would have thought CB would have tried to dampen expectations (as they were the worst ever prod figures) and not have only said that the last months were very good. I am sure H50 reported CBs comments accurately.

Hard to equate comments of: First month's figures were second best ever + last months very good = worst ever production figures !

Not too late for one of the political parties to hire CB as a spin doctor - whoever did would win next months election with ease :)