Member Info for Andrew4444

Observation, for what it's worth....

Although Ask has fallen about 10% from 0.99p to 0.90, buys and sells, over that time, were broadly similar. Shareholder sentiment may not be as bad as the SP fall suggests??

I guess that's TBC - after Q4 results :)

I'm expecting them tomorrow morning - circa 900oz

Hello CE

The trouble is, how do we know when he is making 'an off the cuff statement' (at the AGM/Investor show/pod cast) and therefore we should ignore it, and when do we know when to believe him.

I hope we can believe the written reports, as it would be very worrying if they were not accurate ! No excuse for 'off the cuff' comms there!

Hello Bob

At the Investor show CB said:

‘For four or five months, I’m hoping we will have the benefit of income form the alluvials and the benefit of income form HR’ 14m 40 secs in

This comment matched his expectations, at the time, that HR income would start early 2020, and alluvial income would continue until circa mid 2020, hence we would have 4 to 5 months of joint income. If you are correct that Sino will just be moving from working the river bed/side to terraces in Mid 2020, and not stopping, then there should be no break in alluvial income.

If that were the case, I see no reason why they have to stop working the alluvials for any length of time as all they need to do is move location within the area. Therefore no loss of income stream.

If that were the case, CB should have / would have said - we will be getting joint income (alluvials + HR) for some considerable time, maybe a few years, when HR income starts. There would then be no imminent end date for alluvial income.

If Sino were simply going to change locations and start to work the terraces in mid 2020, It seems very strange that CB implied, or even stated, that alluvial income would stop in circa mid 2020 (ie down from joint income to just HR).

I guess we will know for certain in a few months.

https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/videos/xtract-resources-plc/

James

I'm not in the 'inevitable placing coming' camp just yet. We may stagger on with falling alluvial income and start to get a bit Cooper / gravity fed income by early Q3. We hopefully have enough CIB to supplement income and cover cost for another 6 months..

If we don't get some income from copper / gravity fed by Q3 then I will be firmly in the 'placing camp' .

If CB had not gone down the copper route, with all associated exploration expenses, I believe the last placing would have given us enough cash to keep us going until Q1/ Q2 next year. Even by CB's tardy timescales that would have given us enough time to deliver FB income.

Lets hope is high risk strategy pays off.

James

Fair point.

If we use the long stop start and end dates as more realistic, then the mine wont be completed until 1 October earliest - assuming construction started 1 Feb and it can be completed in 8 months. I can't believe construction has started yet and as CB is very optimistic with this lead times, I think the 8 months will be 10 months +

Therefore, I would be amazed if the mine was completed this year. Earliest FB income IMHO would be Q1 2021

At the investor show in March last year, CB said that the alluvials probably had another 15 months to run. 14m 30 secs in.

This would give them an end date of Mid 2020 - about 3 to 4 months away. This supports the view that they are coming to an end / running down and explains why Nexus left (IMHO). Furthermore , the last 4 quarters have had declining production so again this supports the view they are running down.

My concern is that CB has taken on additional costs re Copper plays, before we have FB income stream on line. High risk. If CB is correct that the alluvial income will stop in mid 2020, then we will have to hope CIB keeps us going until additional income starts either from FB /copper / gravity fed.

I've said before that CB is taking on a lot of risk with the copper plays prior to FB income and I wonder if he thinks time is running out for him in this game (77 this year) and he is having a few last bets.

I hope he wins :)

https://www.ukinvestorshow.com/videos/xtract-resources-plc/

Daz

Re CIL plant

From 29 May RNS

Targets and Performance

MMP has agreed to commence construction (as demonstrated by the placement of an order for the CIL), as soon as possible but in any event no later than 1 November 2019...

Hello CE

Just a point about Nexus leaving.

When Nexus left, the POG was not in the low $1400s, it was $1460 when they left. I can't believe they left because the POG had fallen to $1460 as this POG, apart form 1 quarter, was the highest POG had been in all the 2 years + the alluvial's were being worked. For nearly all of the first 2 years of the alluvial work, POG was below $1400 and for about 1 year of that it was below $1300 - and Nexus were happy to continue with the arrangement at those POGs.

If you number crunch alluvial profit at different POG of $1400, $1500 or $1600 it makes very little difference. What will make a difference to profit is grades and I'm sure they only reason they left was because of falling grades. You stated this as one reason - so I partly agree with you.

Ntm

Every time alluvial results were later then expected the results were, at best, average and usually disappointing. Therefore like you, I'm also not expecting good results and would be surprised if they were better then last quarter so yet another decline against previous quarter. Hopefully I'll be wrong.

I think after these Q4 results and next Q1 2020 results, many may realise why Nexus decided to cancel the arrangement. Being close-up to the action, they probably knew what the direction of travel was.

You may be right that the SP will drop a bit on poor results, but I would be surprised if the new ask went below the current bid so you may not benefit much, or at all, buying back. Of course I may be wrong and we may see sub 0.9p ask again. I doubt it though. I think most are expecting average results so I doubt there would be a surprise if/when poor results are announced. I'm expecting circa 900 oz.

As I've stated before, I've accepted now that the alluvial income, either good or bad results, will not be the driver for any rerate as they are small beer, so now I'm not too bothered about them - either way. If they are bad, hopefully the market will agree with me :)

LW

You're right. There wasn't any mention of the low hanging fruit. That may have been because this was more of an update on copper plays as supplement to the RNS. Hopefully we will get a more thorough update on manica soon, and the LHF.

I understand your concern re income timing. I've said before I would have preferred if we waited until we had actual HR income before tried to expand in other areas. CB said at the investor show,... if I get the timing right I wont need to go out with a placing bowl... so he is aware of these risks. Hopefully we have enough CIB from last placing to keep us going until HR income is generated. I would hope he would be monitoring exploration costs and, if required, reduce exploration / hold this programme if we were very near getting HR income.

My impression from the RNS is that Matrix drill results were not that great, possibly disappointing, but Eureka results were promising, and possibly much better than expected. Not surprising really as CB has previously said Matrix is high risk and Eureka was ' a dream' to find and low risk.

I still have the scars from Okiep copper mine dumps / exploration so won't be getting too excited at this stage. That was supposedly going to be a 'Company maker' and 'game changer' but cost us $1.5M for very little revenue. Exploration is high risk.

I'm 95% focused on Manica (DFS / Robust / detailed) so, for me, the most important news today was the news (in pod cast) that we are 'On time at Manica' and that 'We will start the serious construction shortly'. So what does 'shortly mean in CB speak? Probably by 1 March so that is 4 months later the 1 Nov 2019 start date previously given. That now puts revised construction end date as 1 November (4 months later then 1 July end date). CB's 8 months time scale for completion is no doubt, as ever, very optimistic so I would be amazed if the plant was completed this year. Probably Q1 2021.

Hopefully as we get updates on the construction progress the SP will start to rise. I would hope sp would be circa 2p just before plant completed ready for a possible rerate on first income?? That estimate would be excluding any possible good news from the lottery of the copper plays.

I see copper plays as a possible bonus which I hope will do well, but won't be expecting too much. The market seems to agree with me - at this stage anyway.

Lucky

I guess it's about the opinion of what does ' make much of a difference' actually mean. IMHO I think if that news is announced now, at 1.1p, the sp would move to circa 1.5p over next few days. Your view may be that a 40% to 50% rise is not 'that much of a difference'. Which is fair enough but not one I would agree with.

I do not think it would double on that news, for the reasons you have already given.

My concern is that the next news re Hard Rock plant maybe that there has been 'a slight delay ' and this could see the SP fall. It would nice for CB to give us all some reassurance that all is on track. IMHO

I appreciate some may take the view that, no news is good news and lets just trust CB. But having been here for many years, I'm a little more sceptical in assuming all is and will be fine !

Lucky

I don't agree that confirmation that construction had started wouldn't make much of a difference.

The legacy issues here, with failed promises / deadlines, mean that confidence in events happening as CB has stated could be low. You've also stated that CB could be keeping this news back to stop any SP slide. You could well be right- but if he is doing that then this news would make a difference - it would negative any slide.

If we had an RNS today, updating us that construction had started and all was on track then I think the SP would rise substantially ie It would make a difference IMHO.

Lucky

My concern would be that IF construction had started, why wouldnt CB announce this? That would be great PR and a real boost to confidence. The danger is that some may come to the wrong negative conclusion, especially due to his many failed timescales before.

Bloody hell CE, is that really you or has someone hacked your computer? :)

You've always been confident of CB's timescales and I've always been the sceptical one !

Tbh, as long as CB delivers, which I think he will, I'll forgive his tardiness.

BBS

That's the question , 'has construction begun'. Well, it should have according to 29 May RNS

Targets and Performance

MMP has agreed to commence construction (as demonstrated by the placement of an order for the CIL), as soon as possible but in any event no later than 1 November 2019...

Further, In all recent pod cast / interviews he has stated all is going well with the hard rock and did not report any set backs. IF this is the case then there should be no slippage with construction time scales and construction should have started by now.

Hopefully we will get an update very soon confirming this.

I woundn't read too much into Xtract updating their website as two other companies that CB also has involvement with have also refreshed their website - using the identical template as Xtract's new website!! Keeps thing simple and easy for CB's IT guy :)

It's a group updating / refreshing, rather then saying anything specific about one company.

https://jubileemetalsgroup.com/

https://galileoresources.com/

US troops killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.

Not my preferred way to enable POG to start to spike - but no doubt it will now.

CB has made it even clearer now that KPZ own the licence and that Xtract are not doing anything illegal.

That probably won't stop some mischievous comments!

Hello CE

Thanks for clarification.

The reason I stated that they were an enabler was because of what CB had previously said. I may have misunderstood what he meant but it seemed clear to me.

Please see his interview concerning alluvial's starting at 3.45 and ending 4.45

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_MJ49CIqds

Quotes

'They are in the way so need to be cleared'

'We need to get them out the way to get on with exploration'