Member Info for Andrew4444

Lucky

You made that post at 19.51 hrs, but its 19.48 !

Are you a time traveller?

If so, what's the price tomorrow :)

It may well start to rise but unless we get an RNS to support any rise then I think its likely it will just fall back down again after a month or so.

Last year, this went from 0.7 to 2p, then back down again. No substantial news to support that rise.

I think he means after consolidation/s. So 67p at todays value.

BBS

If you are talking about the 800K trade that was a buy, showing as a sell. 8.20 am trade

It moved the Ask from 0.9 to 0.95p

Yajnas

I agree with you re POG future (and silver btw ) looking excellent over the next 3 years. QE will ensure the dollar is eventually devalued over time and this will help Gold. Inflation will start to rise, eventually, and that will also be constructive for Gold.

This is why I hope CB doesnt sell any of manica.

RE valuation. AS CE rightly says, there; s a big IF with that as CB hasnt delivered yet. That relies on Zambia projects working as planned and I think they are not as far down the line as manica so I would be much more cautious with monetising the copper plays. Manica is much less risk and much more developed and very near producing income. I would be amazed if we do get any income this year despite CBs latest guidance, but I think we should get income in Q1.

The 6p you mentioned is much more achievable from the manica income. I think we should be at at least 4p by this time next year even if all of CBs times scales on Zambia have all slipped - which I suspect they will do.

..of 500K. Seller didnt come out even with a rising bid.

Obviously too early to say if they have gone but its encouraging. This week should be interesting.

Gixxer

I’m surprised CB said he had taken his eye off the ball as that is also what he admitted to before when JN was CEO. Same mistake again? He also did his mea culpa then, on more than one occasion. It’s commendable that he keeps apologising, but some may see anyone who keeps apologising for their mistakes is just one step away from admitting they are incompetent.

The $1M a month free cash flow, by mid next year, is the ‘dog whistle’ comment. Sounds great. However, he had already referenced the circa $1M a month in a sharetalk interview on 2 August last year. Then he implied we should be getting $800K to $1M in a year ie by Mid 2020. So now its mid 2021.

I expect this to rerate at some point as the MC valuation is nonsense against the fundamentals. However, the valuation may not be nonsense against the trust the market puts in CBs forward guidance comments.

I wonder if, at CB's next face to face meeting, he will start the presentation off with......

Look into my eyes, the eyes, not around the eyes, you're under.....…the mine will be built on time and you will believe all my timescales….3-2-1 you’re back in the room. :)

OK Thanks.

So it could be October then but the caveat is 'boarders opening' so maybe longer. I'm still sticking with my Q1 2021 first income prediction.

It does look likely that HR mine will be built though.

$350K profit a month= £280K x 12 = £3.36M a year x 6yrs = £20M circa= 4.4p

So our 23% of FB is worth $24M. I can't see MMP paying more than that for the option buy out - irrespective of what NPV works out at.

But maybe $30M to $40M for all of manica??

BTW CB has consistently said 1.4m oz at manica

Ok Thanks.

Last year, CB said that we have to pay our proportion (23%) of the production cost - obviously not Capex. I wasnt sure if that figure by CB was before or after the 23% of running costs were taken off. That was my understanding.

H50 gave August / September as construction date and you September / October.

Can you confirm which one is correct?

Thanks

Hi James

Is your 'cashflow' comment referring to earnings (profit) or revenue?

'Zambia Kalengwa - will deliver IRO $700k free cash per annum'

Per annum???

I assume that should be per month?

Appreciate the update.

'Aiming for first HR revenue August / September'

I wonder if that's another CB aspiration, rather than realistic timescale. We will know soon enough.

Hi James

My 6p valuation was back of fag packet so your 5.5p valuation maybe more accurate. Not too dissimilar though.

I agree with your main point. There is a massive discount between SP and asset and I think this discount is probably due to lack of trust in CB. Even if CB doesn’t realise the potential here, this will surely spike up at some point and 3 or 4 bag from current levels.

AIMHO

Hello CE

Hope you are well and staying safe.

Thanks for the info re HR plant build. I find CBs 4 month constructions times, hmm interesting! His previous timescale was 8 months lead time – stated in RNS, so now it’s half that. Is that credible? I guess we’ll find out soon enough.

I think CB has made a big call there, as those dates were given to you only 2 months ago and he has not even hinted that there is a construction delay. Latest construction end date he gave to you is consistent with his initial end date given in RNS a year ago. So no slippage.

I really hope he is correct, but I would be amazed if commercial productions started this year, let alone in August. I would have thought CB would be updating the shareholders with all this imminent good news if he really thought all was on track.

I really hope I will owe CB an apology for doubting him on this. Not least of all because If he’s correct, the sp will rocket.

But I doubt I’ll be needing to apologise, sadly. We'll see.

Oh Bugger !

NtM

I agree with your last para.

To add some ‘conspiracy theory detail’ to that, I wonder if MMP/Omnia think that Xtract will have little or no income soon (after alluvial income stops), so they could be trying to ' starve’ CB into accepting a lower valuation. Interesting that the Omnia didn’t process any of the low hanging fruit which would have given CB a decent income stream, to at least pay the bills. Also, no confirmation that MMP have definitely started the HR plant construction so are they dragging their heels to delay income this year? I doubt that will be completed this year so further delay for income.

Like many other conspiracy theories, the above may be rubbish. But then again....

My 6p valuation is based on current POG. After DFS an offer was made for manica of $17.5M. DFS assumed profit of $400 an oz. Profit now double at $800 an oz at current POG with same DFS assumptions, so if valuation is doubled = $35M = £28M = 6.1p

Not suggesting that will happen but that is, I believe, a realistic valuation.

Obviously if POG keeps increasing valuation will increase. I am bullish on POG and think it will go over $2000 so I would prefer CB not to sell off any of manica but I suspect he will to finance his first love of copper exploration.

AIMHO could all be wrong.

Hello Yajnas

To clarify, my valuation is for manica only and a realistic one. If we extrapolated all the potential of manica and added in all the 1.4m Oz and then converted the potential of copper plays to actual income you come up with any figure you wanted. Valuations of 10p, 20p 30p could be justified.

But that would require a number of sequence of events to happen in the right order and on time for a valuation over 10p. It all sounds wonderful, until you remember that the CB has reduced the sp by 75% since he took control so is he really the man who could unlock all this potential??

My valuation is based on realism and not extrapolation all the potential at manica and zambia - which IMHO is highly unlikely to happen. 6p is not my minimum valuation but a realistic one. My minimum valuation is 2p.

Of course others may disagree.

I'll need to see that for 2 weeks before I get confident seller gone.

Acid test will be when bid is going higher and above say 0.85 /0.9 and she still doesnt come out. Then she may have gone.

I say 'she', as only a woman could be this annoying :)

(Joke -just incase the PC brigade are reading this ...or my wife!)

The potential has always been here, even more so with POG. Against fundamentals the SP should rerate but its open to debate if CB will be able to deliver and realise the full potential (5 to 6p is realistic). So far he hasnt. SP 75% down when he took over 3 years ago when he was going to restore shareholder value. That said, I would be very confident of making a profit buying in at this level even if the sp only increases on a spike.

Risks:

1. Not being able to believe much or even anything CB says re forward guidance timescales / events. He gives aspirations not realistic deadlines.
2. Future Income. Alluvial income will stop in next 6 months. HR income will probably not happen this year (imho) despite guidance. Copper plays may produce some income Q4 but I wouldnt be too confident.

Xtract may need to rely on cash in bank later in year and before any HR / Copper income comes - and therefore there is a risk of a placing if income predictions are delayed.

AIMHO - Others will have different views equally valid.