Member Info for Andrew4444

Hello CE

What's frustrating is that we have a fantastic asset in manica. We all want this to multibag and hit say 10p. We've got that 10p sp with the 1.4m oz at manica - probably more. One more heave and we could be there with manica.

Plant about to be built, all derisked. He can't seem to see whats under his nose !

In the TW interview he said he's looking at two more new acquitions... so we may get another RNS soon !!

I've no problem with CB growing the company, but I wish he would do it from a position of strength and after we had HR income.

By taking on more projects prior to income streams, there is increased risk that he may be over stretching himself.

Although we have had promises of near term income before, I think we are much nearer to that happening now than ever before.

I see investing as a sequence of events with different levels of probability culminating in a risk / reward ratio. This then helps me determine if it’s worth investing.

With the possibility of HR income, I think we are now down to just two events required.

1. Plant to be built
2. Production starts
I see the likelihood of those two events happening as 95%+ (within next 9 months)

If they do happen, then we will get a substantial increase in income which will ensure a significant increase in the SP - I would think absolute minimum rise to 3p, probably 4p and maybe more. Therefore I think there is a 95%+ chance of the SP significantly rerating over the next 9 months, maybe sooner. I dismiss CB’s timescales as they have always been inaccurate.

If I did the same analysis for the copper dumps I would calculate a significantly lower probability of income producing, as there are many more sequence of events to happen and much greater risk attached to each event. I’m not dismissing the chances of the copper dumps producing income and therefore increasing the SP at some point in the future, but due to the above factors I’m not taking the copper plays it into account…….yet.

how to pick best mining stocks and where is the 'sweet spot' entry point.

'90% chance of 90% increase'

Most relevant part starts at 8m 15 s to 9 m 20 s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RnyXKRfQlz0

10% drop yesterday with 50/50 buy / sell

today 9% rise with very slightly more buys then sells.

If MMs keep driving up ASK on small buys then yeah, it will keep rising !

every opportunity. It went up today after two sells!!

Very strange

Hi James

I'm not sure what POG he is using re 350K. Current or older one (obviously lower).

Of course he may have called the POG futures correctly so we may get less.

I would be amazed if it didnt break 2000K in next 12 months though.

Ntm

CB did extensively cover that in the paid pod cast. What really surprised me was CB's very bearish position on POG. 14K to 17K range this year, the falling 2021 and again 2022. (in paid pod cast)

He may well be right. But he is in a very small minority thinking POG will not rise over the next few years. And he is one of only a handful of people who think POG will fall over the next few years and not break old highs.

The reason why this matters is that he may have focused more on manica and less on copper if he thought POG was going to 2500 rather than 1500.

As I say, he may be proved right.

Hello CE

The 'little disappointing' comment was lifted from the RNS yesterday - which made me chuckle due to CBs understatement.

We may well get a few more 'little disappointing' news events over the next 6 months - no doubt some will be CBs failed timescales. But in all the years I have been in this, I have never been more confident that the future looks bright. That is nearly all down (imo) to the HR plant which I see as having a 99% chance of being built therefore there is a 99% chance of massive increase in income therefore 99% of SP rerating within the next 9 months.

I see all the other possible income streams as just that - potential which may or may not happen.

not that bad after that RNS - which was more than a 'little disappointing' imo. Not checked the veracity of all buys / sells recorded, but appears to be broadly 50/50? Again not bad in terms of sentiment.

In the bad old days this would have gone down 30% on that type of RNS with many more sells than buys. So I think sentiment is / has turned.

I guess we will know more by COP this week. Close above 1.5p and I'll be happy that we have a good base / support to build from.

Not surprised MM brought it down to 1.6p .

5 mins at 1.85p

What a premium !!

Website just updated significant shareholders list:

Sanderson holding now showing as 20M from 62M. So sold 42M since last update of November 2019.

KMP now showing as new holder at 19M

https://xtractresources.com/shareholders/

Hello CE

Completely agree. You’re starting to sound like me now! Being realistic is definitely better than being overly optimistic – and then disappointed. Many have been guilty of that here over the years.

To clarify, I wasn’t saying CB will update us soon, but stating what I think will be required to support a rise.

I would assume that work is continuing on the HR plant in Moz. IF there is any update to give (and there may not be) , I would hope CB has comms with MMP and can issue an RNS via the appropriate news outlet.

Even in lock –down, I don’t think it’s improbable that he has access to a phone and the internet :)

I wouldn’t read too much into TWs tips as they have been patchy at best. He was all over Big Sofa tech and ramping that up - now delisted. If your point is TWs ramping will help the sp move higher then I agree.

But it wont keep it high unless we get news.

CB has mislead shareholders in the past so I don’t see why he wouldn’t do it to TW – (I’m not saying he did that at the last pod cast btw ). In fact he did ‘mislead’ TW many years ago. TW has said before that he bought £1000 in Xtract, many years ago, after a CB pitch at investor show. It was the ‘3 company pitch’ and TW had to pick one for his £1000 investment and he chose Xtract.

Yes, SP did fall because of placing last year - but it kept falling as no news.

There now appears the some decent support when the SP drops. ATM it’s 2 steps forward and one back . I’ll take that. I expect this rise to continue as we are still at massive discount to NAV and sentiment appears to be turning. My concern is that we will need some news to support, what could be a 3 to 4 bag rise by end of the month (from the low in mid March) .

Maybe an update on HR plant?

If we don’t get any decent news then we may well see a retrace. Before we all get to ‘carried away’ don’t forget, about a year ago this went from 0.7 to 2p on no news - and then back down to sub 1p as there wasn’t any news to support the rise. This could happen again.

That said, If this is another false dawn and the SP retraces, I still think the SP should eventually get to 4p+ as I think we will get HR income and that will instigate a rerate to at least 4p (assuming it's broadly as stated circa $300K a month). I still think that's more likely in Q1 2021 than this year though.

I may, eventually, even get my money back :)

Lucky

So we have options then. To either please CB’s forward guidance timescales or your rather fanciful notion that you are a time traveller from the future and all will be fine.

Lucky, I’m not stupid. I’ll use common sense and go with the more believable and credible option, so thanks for heads-up on the future SP and hope time travel goes well!!

If you want real science fiction, read CB forward guidance timescales! Would make a good episode of the twilight zone :)

agreed

3-1 Buy v Sell

but down 5%

MMs manipulation????