Member Info for Andrew4444

Although I’m sure the dilution and additional exploration costs will be a drag on any rerate, I do expect the SP to get to 3p after HR income has been confirmed. The difference now, is that prior to the new acquisition, I could see this doing a GGP and going quickly up to 10p in 6 months from HR income. I suspect it will now be bouncing up and down the 2p to 3p range until we have news on exploration costs, progress on copper plays and see how many new shares are sold into any rise.

Could be a traders dream??

Hello CE

CB’s high risk strategy may work out wonderfully well and we may all be singing his praises next year or so, but I do think he is taking unnecessary risk. His timing is very strange..

As you have said before, in another post, we could well be on £10M a year income from FB (after more of the 1.4m oz processed). I believe that to be very realistic figure - in fact conservative if we get more than 23% in a revised deal for the other 1m oz. I saw 10p SP as being very possible / probable from the FB income in 18 months.

We both have a substantial holding here and have been in this for many years. A few weeks ago I thought I was going to make a substantial profit here from FB and now I’m thinking that may well be at risk, or at least take longer. Very frustrating.

I can’t help think that he’s putting his love for copper exploration ahead of returning shareholder value .

I hope the AGM could be similar to his initial live pod cast 3 years ago where questions could be submitted by email. It would be nice to get some answers to a few questions.

I just hope his next acquisition is not to try and acquire BHP Biliton and issue 1000 trillion more shares :)

With HR income looking very likely in the not too distance future I wonder where the SP would be now if CB hadn’t gone down the route of all the copper plays? We would have much less dilution, more CIB ,less on-going expenses and less risk. This comment struck me in the RNS…

' Further funding will not be required for the Manica Hard Rock collaboration agreement which was signed on 29 May 2019.'

All CB needed to do was play a straight bat and get 1 more run off the final over to win. It seems he’s trying to hit every ball for 6 and go out in a blaze of glory !

Nash

You may find this useful. 48mins + may answer your question??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkfgEZtJ9LA

LS

Impressed with your ability to find info. Thanks

Do you work for MI6 :)

Also, do you know where my car keys are?

Hi James

Fair enough.

Maybe it was unfair of me to second guess his motivation as ego driven, but I think he is definitely letting shareholders take more risk than we need to.

HI James

But your point that ‘it certainly should have been further developed before expanding the portfolio’…….. is critical. It wasn’t, so he has given extra unnecessary risk to shareholders. Once manica was producing an income, he could then have indulge himself and seen if he could have increased the reward for shareholders by building-up the portfolio.

BTTS

It’s not the fact there is or is not anything more he could do at manica, it’s the fact that he has taken unnecessary risk - or rather shareholders have (imho) . That said, I think there is a bit more to do at manica. CE said it well a couple of days ago so I’ll just cut and paste his point…...

‘.. many of us believe that it is an unnecessary distraction at the moment when we are on the cusp of receiving significant income from the hard rock at Manica and that CB should be expending all his energy on getting the ball over the line. If all the plays had already been put into motion to secure the hard rock income and nothing else could be done to expedite it then there would be no problem, but there are still contracts to be negotiated for a fair chunk of the hard rock license areas and therein lies the source of the doubt felt by many……….

I know CB keeps talking about returning shareholder value, but I think he had the pathway to do that just from manica. I suspect his real motivation has more to do with ego then shareholders interests.

He is very wealthy already, so I’m sure he doesn’t need to keep working, therefore I think he sees all this exploration and acquition as more of a retirement project. If it all goes wrong the financial loss will not be an issue to him, so he is prepared to take more risk to further his real aim – being successful at building up small mining companies to bigger ones and increasing his portfolio.

Of course if he is successful then shareholders will do very well, but it appears he is happy to let shareholders take more risk then they need to so he can further his own interests.

CB is definitely trying to build a bigger asset.

He reminds me of landlord building a property portfolio. As soon as property no.1 is about to produce income, he uses that to pay a mortgage and buy property no. 2, then again for property no.3 etc.

Asset rich yes, but ‘disposable’ cash poor.

I know CB’s approach should (I hope) make the pie bigger – but it would be nice for LTHs to be able to eat some of it before the next lot come in behind us and scoff the lot !

https://www.share-talk.com/colin-bird-executive-chairman-of-xtract-resources-plc-xtr-l-podcast/#gs.7b4h99

today the ASK was taking the stairs on the way down and lift on the way up.

Not too sure how SP is up today with the trades but I guess that's good news.

Thinking about again, may be I'm wrong with my last comment.

If you're gambling with others peoples money then it may make sense to keep placing more bets !

Hi James

I agree. CB has gambled 20% of Xtr betting he can increase value by more than 20% with new acquition. Greater risk for hopefully, greater reward. If this high risk strategy goes wrong he wont be increasing shareholder value but reducing it.

The analogy is, if CB was at the casino and had made £100 into a £1000. But kept gambling, trying then to make the £1K into £10K. If successful he's try and make it £50K.

There are times when cashing in your winnings is a better risk/reward strategy then keep placing more bets.

I wish CB hadn’t undertaken yet another venture until we had confirmed income at manica. His love for copper exploration was probably too strong to resist. I hope he doesn’t take his eye off the ball, again, with manica. He’s already admitted to doing that twice now with this company.

Manica project is detailed, robust, further advanced than all the other copper plays so carries much less risk.

In my view the best way for him to restore shareholder value would be to focus on manica and progress this asset. I believe the sp could rerate to 10p just with this asset.

My, albeit fairly crude, analysis is:

1. $350K profit from 23% of FB. FB represents about a quarter of the 1.4M oz at manica (CB has said FB is about 300K to 350K oz )
2. 1.4M oz is four FBs = $350K a month x 4 = $1.4M a month = £1.1M free cash flow a month.
3. 6 year mine life = £79M over 6 years =17p SP
4. Discount that by a third for lower grades / less recovery
5. = 11.5p SP
.

That’s assuming POG stays at current level and we don't improve on the 23% JV. POG highly likely to be much higher over next few years Also as we will be negotiating any new JV from a position of strength (now with income from FB) we may well get the 50/50 JV omnia mentioned, or at least more than 23%

So 11p is very realistic - and it could be more.

They say love is blind. Looks like CB's love for Copper exploration has blinded him to what he's already got - right under his nose.

pay him in share options!!

That should encourage any CEO to perform!

the RNS today.

Different views on the RNS here, but the market wasnt that impressed. Twice as many sells as buys and loads near the end.

Tomorrow will be interesting...

I just feel frustrated and deflated. No need to do this to get where we want to be imo. We were on track to do that.

The 10p party may still come, but I would like it in next 2 years not 12 years !

I wonder what our new esteemed (sic) shareholder TW, will think of this.

CB needs to be careful as TW does have a platform to express his views to a wide audience. And he's not shy at giving his opinion. (whether he's right or wrong).

JDAU

I'd rather CB got this to 10p as soon as possible and believe focusing on manica would do that sooner than any other project.

I think you are ignoring additional risk with acquiring more projects.