Member Info for Andrew4444

OK Thanks.

We should know soon if he's right.

If there is anyone who is a subscriber to Hot Stock Rockets, can they confirm if TW has said what has been reported??

I can't see any other TW source confirming this.

The 23% cap to Xtract is the reason why more exploration drilling should take place imo.

This from the 29 May agreement.....

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Exploration

The Company and MMP have agreed to incorporate a gold mining exploration special purpose vehicle, on a 50:50 owned basis, and with a monthly budget to be agreed by the parties from time to time.. The costs of exploration shall be divided on a case by case basis. Each party may submit a project exploration plan to the other party for review. The reviewing party may elect to contribute up to 50 per cent. of the costs of exploration on that project and will be awarded participation in the project on a pro rata basis with its share of the costs.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

My understanding is that we can increase our cut of other potential income to 50% assuming we contribute 50% of the costs.

If I've understood that correctly, then that's a good reason to continue drilling??

At the TW paid pod cast CB said that the 100m Aussie shares could be announced by mid August and that they could only flip 25% of their holding immediately. The other 75% were time limited.

So maybe some of the 25 Million are being pre sold and flipped ?

As long as free milling income starts before alluvial income stops then we should be fine.

The next expected news is the new alluvial contract but that, according to CB, will be less profitable than the free milling income so it will be very small.

Imho its all about the borders being confirmed open. That will rerate the SP. Unless we get news of that in the next month, I would expect the sp to drift down but would be very surprised if it went below 1.6p.

My assumptions were:

120 tonnes per day
28 days a month
13% to xtract
POG $1900
0.77 g/t . This is SAMREC compliant and Inferred.

I believe that comes to just over $20K a month, assuming my maths is correct

Any other higher grades being quoted is just optimistic speculation. The word 'potential' was used many times in todays RNS.

If the grades are higher, then great. But I think the best option to estimate future income is to use best known available data.

By my calcs this will give us circa $20K a month extra. Better than nothing but nothing that will be transformational.

Clever comments by CB re border opening:

'we are confident that border restrictions will be lifted to allow the importing of machinery from South Africa to Mozambique."

Nothing new here as the borders were always going to be opened at some point. No indication of when the borders will be opened. If they were due to be opened soon we would have an indication.

I wonder if CB was getting concerned that there could be a period of no income if this deal was not agreed soon. We wont be getting the circa £50K to £60K a month from this deal until Mid November (about alluvial income level). So maybe CB thought best agree to this now rather than try to keep negotiating and delaying income???

So SP closed only 1% up. I’m not that surprised tbh. In essence, the RNS basically swaps one amount of income for the same amount – albeit in a few months time. Good news is that the lights can remain on until we get HR income. Also Free milling income is more robust than alluvial and we dont have to worry about it ending soon.

I think many were expecting more substantial income re the free milling contract than, broadly, it being the same as our current alluvial income. I know we have Boa Esp to add to the income from free milling but that is smaller then GF and will not see xtract get the 4 to 6 kg a month that CB said in the mineprophets pod cast.

Hopefully the second alluvial contract will add another circa £50K a month to our income.

My take...

1. I agree with CE’s monthly income figures.
2. CB has stated that the current alluvial contract will probably end by Q1 2021 so this new contract will cover all that lost income. From CB’s own stated alluvial figures, it wont give us much, or any additional income after current alluvial income stops. Just replace it.
3. This new contract reduces any chance of a placing but wont increase income streams after Q1 end (alluvial income stops).
4. CB said in the chat room in the TW paid interview, Xtract should get about 4-6KG income from free milling contract. His 6kg figures looks correct but that is going to be total production – not what Xtract will get.

In short, nothing wrong with this deal but it will, eventually, broadly replace the current alluvial income and is not as good as CB implied (in the Chat room of paid pod cast).

With CB's timescales always moving out I would be amazed if we got any Free milling / 2nd alluvial contract news before October. Because of that I expect the SP to drift downwards over the next month (assuming no news) but I would be very surprised if it went below 1.3p. I feel sentiment is too strong for a large retrace.

Excluding black swan events, it seems, almost, inevitable the sp will be, at the very least, 4p within a year.

Realistically I can’t see borders opening for cargo for another month. So, with transport time, I can’t see the mine construction starting until late Sept / early October. Add the more realistic 5 months construction time (CB says 4 or 5 months so we know what that means) = March construction complete. We may just have time to commission and test before 1 April, so maybe production starts before April?

I think we can now forget about CB's previous prediction of ‘before xmas’!

As we may not get any income figures for the Free milling and second alluvial contract until January, H1 2021 should be a transformational period for Xtract.

But we may have to be a little more patient and move out some of CB's previous timescales.

1.60 to buy and 1.615 to sell.

????????????

The impression I got from that interview was that CB was trying his best to convince us that it’s all going to happen soon. I guess it depends how you define ‘soon’.

He may have been more revealing with some of his off guarded comments

Re Second alluvial contract.
QUOTE ‘I expect to have that in production in the next couple of months’

After his comments I’m even more convinced that production re free milling and second alluvial contract wont start until Q4. Some may say that is soon.

2021 future here looks excellent, but unfortunately we may have to wait longer than some think before we start to get additional income.

Very good point Lucky.

Obviously current alluvial income is peanuts and I cant see how we are going to get any additional income from second alluvial contract or free milling before Q4.

It was reported, a few months ago, that CB has said no placing for the foreseeable future . I wonder what CB's interpretation of the foreseeable future is !

I think we should be getting RNS soon of additional 100M shares issued and new board member. I think CB said this can't be announced until all Bushranger admin had been finalised.

Yes CB mentioned it, but no idea when that will start (for second alluvial contract). Last Alluvial update 27 May he said...

'We intend over the next month to commence a further contract with another Chinese group on an adjacent licence. The agreement with the group will be similar to existing agreements in place'

So that has slipped.

From the chat box conversation at the TW paid interview the free milling contract was mentioned and he did not seem as upbeat re timescales as he has in interviews.

Jamesiecakes said:

Hi Colin, apologies if I am misinterpreting you but you seem much less optimistic on getting a contractor with free milling capability than previous podcasts?

That was also my view .

I am confident that we will have these new contracts in place (second alluvial and free milling) at some point but I think they may take longer than the impression CB is giving in interviews. CB was just 'dotting the I's and crossing the T's' months ago !

I doubt we'll be able to ship the plant equipment until October, so the plant construction wont start until mid October – at the earliest. That means the plant wont be completed until probably mid March (I know CB said 4 or 5 months build time but the latter is more likely with CB). Add on 2 weeks for commissioning and the plant should be fully operational by early April.

If we are lucky and we can ship next month then my previous Q1 prediction for processing may just happen but It’s now starting to look more likely Q2 (albeit early Q2).

POG maybe even higher by then !

I use advfn. Register and use trades tab. Its real time but you only get a few seconds to check live trades as page closes (unless you join and pay) but that's enough time to see what is happening live.

Hello CE

If you're impressed with current POG chart I think you'll be even more impressed over the next 6 months ! It looks like even CB has finally accepted that POG will be rising over next few years rather then falling.

As for SP movement, I doubt we will see much of a rise until the borders are opened, as then we will have an idea of when the plant will be built and substantial income will start. I think we will see a steady sp rise to 2p to 2.5p starting when shipment confirmed (borders opened). Hopefully sp will be circa 2.5p before new HR income announced. Should x2 or x3 from there.

That said, good alluvial Q2 income this month or free milling deal announced may see sp hit 1.5p.

Hi James

Thanks for confirmation. Your post gives me confidence that I'm not way off with my calcs and future SP predictions.

I was getting a bit worried that we had to take off the tax from CB's figures which would have substantially reduced my future SP prediction and meant I would have to cancel my order for the ferrari :)