Member Info for Andrew4444

TW is a failed fund manager who now realises he can make a living by getting some to pay him subscription fees. In addition, when you have the audience of a number of people, it is somewhat advantageous to be able to substantially move the SP in any direction with just one comment. As we have seen here.

Of course I am not suggesting that he would ever deliberately do that for his personal gain.....

His big tip this year was BST. Last 10 posts on that BB shows what they thought of him. To be fair to him he did advise people to get out and he also got out. Just not in that order.


https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=BST&share=Big-Sofa-Technologies-Group-Plc

The last two public ‘negative’ comments by TW have come immediately after we have had good news about the borders opening. First re Moz border and now re SA border.

Just saying…..

I’m not too sure what has changed for TW to completely change his view re his recent very bullish comments in the CB interview.

I hope there are no cynics out there suggesting his motivation is to get the price down to add more.

I’m sure he would never do that…….

This is the link to the full Gov announcement.

https://www.gov.za/speeches/president-cyril-ramaphosa-progress-south-africas-effort-contain-coronavirus-covid-19

My understanding is that we wont be able to transport the items until 1 October ? Others may interpret it differently.

'The move to alert level 1 will take effect from midnight on Sunday 20 September 2020'

but further down the text it says...

'One of the earliest measures we took to contain the spread of the virus was to severely restrict international arrivals and to close our borders.

With the move to alert level 1, we will gradually and cautiously ease restrictions on international travel.

We will be allowing travel into and out of South Africa for business, leisure and other travel with effect from 1 October 2020'

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Whether its 20 September or 1 October shipment date, the good news is that we now know mine construction should start very soon.

If you don’t believe that it was a typo then that’s your choice. It was a typo and I wouldn’t make that up as I has already posted that you had stated 3-4 months earlier. Even with the 3-4 months time scale, you were still being inaccurate. OK you’ve now changed it to 4 months but that’s not what you said originally.

You clearly stated that the CB’s guidance was 3-4 months lead times. Wrong. CB said 4-5 months in latest pod cast.

You clearly implied that I was saying equipment will arrive in January. Wrong. That was against your incorrect 3 months lead time.

You clearly stated that I’m making things –up. Wrong. My opinion is just that, not fact. And I made this clear by stating imo in my post.

You clearly said that I’m stating the April date as fact. Wrong. I said April was ‘more realistic’ and acknowledged it could be March.

If you want to say I talk rubbish or my opinion is wrong, then fine. But don’t question my integrity by saying I’m deliberately misleading, have my own agenda, or stating things as fact, when I’m not.

In short, all I did was add 1 month on to CB’s latest time scale (5 months from October = March).

You call that fabricating. I call that being realistic and sensible due to previous slippages. That view may be right or wrong. It certainly isn’t fact and never claimed it to be.

I’m sure many BB members are getting bored of this so I’ll leave it there, and I’ll let others come to their own conclusions and make their own judgements.

JDAU

You re correct. I should have said 3-4 months not 2-3 months. That was a typo on my part and I was not trying to misrepresent what you said. I apologise for that error.

However, that doesnt change my original point that you clearly did say I was 'making things up' and that was not the case, as can be proven by listening to the pod casts. You also disingenuously implied that I said the equipment would be arriving by January. And then said I'm making this date up ! I never said January, you did based on your own incorrect 3 month lead time (April less 3 months).

My original points in my last post still stands, even with your 3-4 months lead time.

When someone shows that I have made an error ,I apologise. I guess not everyone has the same level of integrity.

What I found annoying is the accusation that I’m making things up – which questions my integrity. I wont go down to JDAU’s level by accusing him of the same with his 2-3 months lead times. Which we know from listing to the two recent pod casts is inaccurate.

The criticism I should be subject too is being, possibly, delusional thinking that CB’s lead time will only slip by 1 month and that construction will start in October :)

JDAU

I didnt make those lead times up. They were from Colin Bird.

If you subscribed to the paid pod cast on 29 May the salient part is at 1 hr 18 min (listen for next minute)

The other confirmation was on 18 July paid podcast, salient part is at 27 min 25 seconds (listen for next minute)

Both TW interviews.

Anyone who subscribed to those two paid pod casts (Gixxer??) can still log in and listen at those above parts and hear that CB did say:
4 months lead time on one and 4-5 months on another.

JDAU If you didnt subscribe then send me an email to : andrew4444xtract@gmail.com and I will send you the 1 min segment on both pod casts in audio file.

As I wouldnt want anyone to think I'm, as JDAU said, making it up, this offer applies to anyone who would like confirmation.

Please state subject as PODCAST

Thanks

JDAU

For someone who keeps advising people to DYOR, you seem surprisingly lacking in this area.

CB’s latest guidance has not been 3-4 months up and running, as you claim. In the May pod cast he said construction time is 4-5 months.

And In the more recent July pod cast he said..

‘If we get the equipment up there by Mid August then, with a following wind, we should be producing by xmas’
So that’s 4 months - and that’s with ‘a following wind’ (so optimistic). So 4-5 is more realistic as he previously stated in May.

The realistic earliest time that the equipment will arrive is early October (realistic not quickest possible), so add CB’s best case lead time of 4 months, means mine producing in early February. That would be highly optimistic, and not realistic (imo). CB has never been early in any guidance and often late, so I think 5-6 months is more realistic and I think construction will start in Mid to late October, so I think April is more realistic. I accept, and hope, it could be March (if we are lucky), but I believe April is more realistic.

I’m not saying that is fact, as you claimed, I’m saying that is my opinion based on CB’s recent guidance in the May and July pod cast and taking account of his many previously overly optimist timescales.

I have no idea why you think I'm saying no equipment before January.

I completely agree with you on one point, JDAU. DYOR . Well said.

If you need any more help on updating your research notes then please ask. More than happy to help.

Joe

Agreed. I’ve made this point before. I think sp will be circa 3p just before mine construction is completed.

But my point in my previous post was that we will not be getting £600K FCF by end of the year. In fact I can’t realistically see that happening before Q2.

Not a hope in hell of £600K FCF by the end of the year. Maybe by Spring. The FB mine (main income source) wont be in production until April at the earliest.

CB's forward guidance, as ever, is all over the place. In July in the TW paid pod cast he said Eureka production by Mid 2021. Just 2 months later (this week) he says end of the year or early 2021.

NtM

Hmmm. Not so sure.

As stated in my last post, a placing now will be very damaging to CB's credibility (after his comments and implications today).

Sometimes, the attempted cover-up does more damage than just admitting the mistake!!

We'll see.

CB would have known the TW comments and if he was planning to do a placing he could not have said, with any credibility, that nothing had changed or implied that he doesnt know why the sp had fallen.

CB may not have used the words... there will not be a placing.... but he deliberately implied that with his comments.

If I'm wrong and there is a placing soon, then CB's integrity will be in tatters and I doubt anyone will believe anything he ever says again. The fallout and damage in that scenario would be, imho, much more damaging than CB just admitting there will be a placing.

LW

I agree with your view but only IF there is a placing, but can't see why anyone would be that concerned or never want in again if we find out its all the work of one journo making ill informed comments.

I've been critical of CB many times in the past, but on this occasion he can't be held responsible or accountable. This was all outside his control.

Assuming there is no placing, I think this will be back-up to circa 2p by the end of the month.

You're not Tom Winnifrith buying back in??? :)

Robbie

thanks.

Hello H50

Am I correct in thinking you are a subscriber to his pod cast and have listened to what he has said?

So you are giving the facts of the matter rather than than reporting what some are saying?

I dont think there will be a placing for the reasons stated below, but even if there is one, I can't see the sp falling much now.

Moreover, the fundamentals have not changed. This was not a rumour of MMP backing out or a fundamental issue. So If TW was saying 3.6p two weeks ago, then I'm sure he hasnt changed his mind on that.

On that analysis I've taken advantage of the 'special offer on xtr shares' added more.

Quotes re drop

'I don't know what has changed'

'Nothing has changed'

Could he really make these comments if a placing was due soon?? He must know the rumours from his friend (ex friend) TW.

After his comments today, If there is a placing soon then I would think CB's credibility would be in tatters.

All previous placing announcements have been made during trading hours so too early to call.

You wont have seen the TW comment unless you have the subscription service for his news letter.

I believe he said what was reported, but the question is is he right?? I'm going to give it until the end of the week.

NtM

Your sell last week at 2.05p is looking rather astute now !

Well done on that .