Member Info for Andrew4444

Hello CE

If you are correct that the 4.5kg was the total amount produced (I'm assuming the 4.5kg was for all of the quarter) then we will be lucky to get $60K profit for the quarter. This would be a massive reduction in the production figures and imho too much of a reduction to be believable. So I think the 4.5kg was our cut.

If you are correct in thinking 4.5kg is prior to our cut, and you may well be, then I would think we will be seeing a good opportunity to top-up at near or below 1p after the alluvial results are released :)

Hello CE

Not too sure what you mean when you say 'shared'. We obviously don't get all of alluvial production but we now get 100% of explorator cut.

The 4.5kg gold sales wont need to be shared as that is too small to be total production. I can't see how we would have sold any free milling Gold 2 weeks ago (that's when CB said we have sold 4.5kg of gold) so all the 4.5kg would have to be our cut from alluvial gold production.

We that's my understanding. I guess we'll know soon enough

due any time now.

I would expect same figure as last time ($275K for quarter). CB confirmed 4.5 kg sent for payment = 145 troy ounces= $275K assuming average POG $1900

We may also get update on free milling Gold?? It should be well under way and nearing the increased 120 tpd (according to previous RNS)

Joe

Despite my scepticism with CB's timescales, I do think we will get a substantial increase in income from FB (and other plays). CB now has a number of 'horses in the race' so I would be very surprised if they all fell!

No idea when we will see increase in income, but I am sure it wont be when CB says or by the amount stated.

Imho the question is how high will this go? Will it be a spike to 3p then back down, same old same old, or will it hit 4p ? 6p? or more?

.......and what's even stranger /more worrying, is that CB's next forward guidance will be greeted with excitement and 100% confidence by some on here. I guess some take the view that just because CB got the last 20 forward guidance on timelines and figures wrong, doesnt mean he will get the 21st wrong.

A few on here may still see Gixxer's post as him 'carping on' , ignoring the fact that its all an accurate summary of what has actually happened...or rather what hasnt happened.

Lucky

But we are producing gold and selling it - from the alluvials.

All that needs to happen is that POG rises to about $30,000 an ounce and we will be getting the income CB keeps saying :)

The alternative way is that CB starts to get the Gold / Copper out the ground at the amount he keeps promising.

I wonder which will happen first, predicted production figures as stated by CB or POG at $30,000 an ounce :)

Its going to be close !

Gixxer

The alternative view is that this will rerate harder and faster than most due to : poor sentiment, CB's wrong forward guidance and because nothing is priced in.

Of course that possible re rate will only happen if / when we get additional and sustained income. Imho The market will not now take note of any more bullish comments from CB. He's played that one out.

I maybe naïve, but I would be very surprised if at least one of CB's many projects didnt start to deliver income reasonably soon. If that happened, I would expect the SP to move quickly due to the fact that nothing is priced in here.

Although CB has clearly not yet delivered, he has, imo, substantially transformed the company from where we were 3 years ago. It would appear all the 'ducks are in a row' now.

The market has had enough of fine words and jam tomorrow interviews and now wants to see income. I think he will deliver significant income over the next 12 months, maybe sooner, and we will see the SP rerate.

It just wont happen exactly when CB says or by the amount he predicts - imo.

The tell-tale sign that CB was not being 100% honest, imo, was when he announced, via both interview and RNS of the ‘Covid issues’ exactly when the borders were declared open. He had previously been saying that once the borders were opened then ‘we’re off’. The opening of the borders was the only hurdle for shipment. That obviously was not true, unless we are expected to believe that the new ‘Covid issues’ happened exactly at the same time the borders were opened !!

Further, the Aussie Project Man has been in lock down for some time (apparently) and well before borders were opened, so did CB not think his absence was going to cause / had caused delays? Why not mention this significant fact prior to borders opening?

CB tried to explain away this anomaly in the webinair interview when he said ‘I’ve probably presented a misconception’ (re shipment and timescales). I guess that’s one way of explaining it !

He was probably being honest in the webinair interview when he said that the contractors were waiting for the borders to be opened before committing money. They are now, probably, doing all those things he had already give us the impression they had already done months ago.

I hope Jeremy Read now starts to take a more focused and hands on approach. CB ‘spreads himself too thinly’ imo amongst so many projects and indeed companies. I think it’s time he had more support so all of our projects can now be delivered to completion.

Understood.

Your use of the word 'income' made me think that was specifically is what you meant.

Tbh I am not expecting any update on free milling contractor progress, just income declaration. I'm taking the view, maybe wrongly, no update means all is progressing as planned???

CB is not late with income update....yet.

CB has said that we wont get any news re income for Guy Fawkes until early November along with the alluvial income. As alluvial income is not due until mid Nov, and because CB is always late with his guidance, I suspect we will get an income update for both, maybe at the same time, in mid to late November.

Boa Esp may also be included in the update ?

As the free milling ramp-up of production continues in November, we may not see a massive increase in income until the November output is declared in December?

Hello CE

I'm not saying there wont be a rerate until Mid 2021.

Even if the mine is not in production by mid 2021, it will surely be well under construction and when that is confirmed (construction started not completion) I think we will start to see the SP gradually move higher, and continue to move up, as the end date becomes nearer. In addition, we should see income from Eureka and free milling Gold by late this year / early - next year - Ok that's according to CB. So even if we add on the 'CB delay factor', to those time scales they should happen sometime in Q1 latest?

With additional income in Q1 (Eureka + free milling) + mine construction started in Q1, I would think that will initiate SP move higher and probably in a continued upward direction as the mine construction continues and progress reports are given.

The first pour / mine completion should initiate a spike in the SP but I would think, just before that is confirmed, the SP would be between 3p to 4p for the reasons I've already given. Probably another 50% increase in sp after mine completed / first pour.

So I would hope and indeed expect the sp to be much higher well before Mid 2021 as we get income from Eureka / free milling Gold and mine is being built.

I think that's more realistic rather than optimistic imho. But I could be wrong :)

AIMHO

News

The most important part of your post, imo, was the last part when you wrote...

"Operative word: "Could" = Potential."

I think the market here is long past reacting to “great potential” or any of CB’s bullish commentaries on how good the future is going to be. CB now needs to “show us the money” before the market starts to price in true value here imo.

For what it’s worth, I think he will (show us the money) and income will substantially increase but I doubt it will be when CB says and, probably, not by the amount he implied. But a rerate nevertheless.

I would be very surprised if the SP wasn’t substantially higher by mid 2021.

AIMHO

CB explained in the recent Webinar interview that the contractors would not want to commit money until the borders were opened. This makes sense to me. However, it doesn’t make sense why he constantly said, prior to the borders opening, as soon as the borders were opened then equipment could be shipped to Moz. He must have known, prior to the borders opening, of the contactors policy of not committing funds until the borders were opened, therefore knew shipments would not take place immediately borders were opened – despite what he kept saying.

He touched on this ‘confusion’ in the webinair interview when he said ‘I’ve probably presented a misconception’ (re shipment and timescales). A ‘misconception’ eh Colin!?? That reminded me of politician speak – when they say that they were ‘being economical with the truth!’ or gave a 'misleading impression'.

I am almost certain the mine will be built and that the sp will substantially rerate, but I doubt we will be getting any FB income until Mid 2021 . I think it's possible that we may not get any shipment this year .

I suspect the contractors are franticly doing now what CB implied they had already done a few months ago.

All of course IMHO. Others will have different views.

I can sell and buy as usual in my x-o and HL accounts

Hello CE

My understanding is that 250K a month is with higher grades being targeted??

You said on 3 October that...

' If the contractor decided to target the low grade areas first then there would be nothing we could do about it and monthly income to XTR would have to be revised downwards to around $40K per month - luckily that is not the case and therefore something like $200,000 per month is the current expectation.'

I may have misunderstood this, but my understanding is that $40K is with low grades (using grades as stated in JORC) and 200K to 250K with higher grades assuming 3 to 4 g/t?

Not much new came out of that interview imho but one point of note was CB’s time scale for FB. He stated March / April for completion. This may have surprised some here as when I stated the exact same time scale, just a month ago, I was accused of making things up and fabricating time scales.

As I’ve said many times before. I think we’ll get there but it wont be consistent with CBs times scales (is it ever) so it wouldn’t surprise me if FB is not producing income until May. Not fact but imho.

Many may think that’s rather pessimistic and 'not what CB said'. But many other of my comments that were characterised, at the time as pessimistic, have proven to be more prescient than negative.

As many rightly say. DYOR. And if you do, you’ll realise CB’s time scales are very optimistic and keep slipping.

Of course AIMHO.

s h a r e p r o p h e t s

I see TW is already trying to discredit the author of the report and the price target.

Wasnt TW saying similar things to the report re prospects just a few weeks ago??

https://www.*************.com/views/51571/disgraced-journalist-smearing-fraud-enabler-dr-michael-green-serves-up-another-bonkers-share-price-target-this-time-its-xtract

Hello CE

I think we are talking at cross-purposes and confusing each other.

I agree with nearly everything you have just said but I think you have also missed the point I was making.

As an aside - My only slight disagreement is that it’s impossible to come up with an accurate revised figure unless we know what the actual grades will be. Targeting higher grades doesn’t tell us what they will be.

I think best leave it there and wait and see what the actual income figures are.

ATB