Member Info for Andrew4444

If this wasnt called Xtract with all its legacy issues, I'd think there was an inevitability that this would multi bag with all the potential good news coming 2021.

But as it is called Xtract and therefore my hopes have been dashed many many times over the years, I'll now believe it when I see it!

Lloyds BB has gone !

I'm sure it was here last time I checked :)

If we keep getting two or more 500K sells each day or very often, then you may be correct. I would be surprised if they were offloading at this price tbh. I would think they would be waiting for sp to be higher ie after FB completed or getting near completion, BR drilling results??

As an aside, I wonder if the apparent great deal we got for BR was possibly because they were paid in shares?? They must know that the good deal Xtract got would in all likelihood translate into a higher SP later on - that's why I think they wont be selling now.

I guess we'll know if it is them over next few weeks if we keep getting blocks of 500K sells as per sandersons off load.

BBS
Not too sure why you think the Bushranger shares are being sold? No big sells as far as I can see? And more buys than sells.

Btw 75Million of the 100m are time locked-in, so can't be sold yet.

Some good news in there and some not so good.

Good News

1. Current Alluvials appear to have a second wind, as production is increasing. CB previously stated they should be exhausted by end this year or Q1 2021. It seems they may now last until late 2021.

2. Slow but steady progress on FB, second alluvial and Free milling Gold. (assuming you believe CB timescales)

Not so Good

1. Looks highly unlikely we will get the $200K a month income from GF and second alluvial by end of the year as stated by CB. (Is anyone surprised !!)

2. FB lead time now stated as 6 months. We know work started before today (according to CB) so the total build time may well be circa 8 months. This is the exact same time scale in the original RNS when FB construction details were announced. Even if we ignore the previous months work, CB is now stating 6 months, so that is nothing like the 4-5 months he kept saying in previous interviews. Maybe some can now see why I was sceptical with his previous FB lead times.

Trivia
I don’t see why we are getting $1730 an ounce when selling Gold but $1940 an ounce is stated when produced?? All in the same quarter. I may have missed something there?

Future
Notwithstanding the continuous slippage in forecasts (time and quantity), we do seem to be slowly staggering forward. It seems highly likely that FB will be built sometime next year (probably later than CB’s circa June forecast though). In addition I think it also highly likely that we will get additional free milling income by Q2 next year (no doubt later than CB Q1 prediction). With Bushranger also having great potential - I don’t know why anyone hasnt mentioned this great potential before :) - I am confident the SP will be significantly higher by Q4 next year than it is now.

That SP appreciation may well take longer than many expected, or longer than CBs forward guidance implies, but I am confident it will happen. The realisation this may take time, may account for the SP falling a little after the RNS (ASK 1.59p to now 1.49p).

The drilling news was nearly a week ago and after that RNS the sp didnt move for a few days so I doubt that is the reason.

IMHO I suspect the reason for the move up is due to CB's previous forward guidance re free milling gold and his predicted of $200K a month income by end of the year.

Some may be gambling that's CB has got that right - so are getting in now before that news is confirmed??

AIMHO

having been in this share for over 100 years (well it seems like it !) I'm always sceptical of any rise without news. We've seen it so many times before... and then the fall.

IF we get news re additional income soon then anyone buying now may well have got a bargain.

We'll see.

Delayed buy showing of 900K at 1.6p. I assume that was the cause of the 1.7p spike??

Ask just popped to 1.7p????

Hmmmm

It all can all be summarised (imho) by this:

1. Fantastic asset potential
2. But will CB realise any of this great potential into income therefore sp appreciation? Or will it be more dilution with CB buying more lottery tickets?
3. If your bet is CB will do it, then stay or add. Those that think no, best exit on next spike (IMHO).

My bet is just a ‘yes’ but as it’s CB in charge - I may well be wrong! I'm giving him to end of next year to have realised at least some of this potential.

From Xtract*s Apr 2020 Presentation:
"Pg 13: Market metrics for ASX listed copper co*s suggest the RACECOURSE Mineral Resource upon will immediately drive a market capitalisation of $15-$30 million."

That makes sense.

Copper price at that time (Apr 2020) = $5000 /t

Resource = 300,000 t contained copper

300,000 x $5000 = $1500,000,000

2% of $1500,000,000 = $30,000,000

In the long TW interview a few months ago, CB said that majors are only interested in buy outs if there is a minimum of 1m tonnes of contained copper.

Looking at other major buy outs they usually pay circa 2% of the total deposit value. IF (big if) we get the resource to 1m contained copper after drilling (its 300K tonnes at the moment 0.44% Cu x 71mt) then the sale valuation should be at least £100M - assuming copper is around current price and we get the usual 2% sale price.

So a lot of assumptions, possibilities and 'maybes'. But certainly good potential IF we get to 1M contained copper.

correction: possibly FB update

I suspect many are in 'hold mode' aware that news is due soon re

Current alluvials
New alluvials
GF and BE hard rock
Possibly GF update

So many maybe waiting to see what is the news re those plays before either dumping loads or buying back in / adding.

Year 1970

I think you have over simplified my previous view and I have not changed my overall view of this investment as much as you seem to have implied.

That said, you are correct that I have changed my view specifically on believing CBs forward guidance.
I wasn’t as critical of CB in the past, as he had recently become defacto CEO so he had, imho, a clean slate. I appreciate you blamed him for issues that occurred during JN days as CB was chairman then and you may believe that CB was as much to blame . That’s an understandable view but not one I held.

I’m more critical of CB now, as the facts have changed (repeated missed targets and forward guidance).

When the facts change I change my opinion.

I have two competing views on this investment. One is that CB has built up a portfolio with excellent potential, which, if realised even in part, would see a substantial SP increase. The other is lack of trust in CBs forward guidance and some doubts about his ability to deliver.

As I am still invested I must think that, on balance, CB will deliver something and the SP will rise at some point in the future. But that’s doesn’t mean I wont be critical of his ‘misinformation’ (I’m being tactful), his deception or his repeated forward guidance nonsense.

If the facts change again, then this time next year I may be singing CB’s praises.

Gixxer

I came to the same conclusion re FB construction as soon as CB claimed there were ‘covid issues’ exactly when the borders were opened. Funny he didn’t mention these issues before the borders were opened.

My annoyance isn’t just because of the associated fall in SP or even the deception, but the low opinion CB must have of shareholder’s intelligence if he thinks anyone would still believe his excuses / forward guidance.
He will never update with bad news, but will issue a revised guidance which may have an even better prediction than the previous failed one.

He did this recently when he reportedly was annoyed / surprised/ disappointed at some negative comments on the BB. So what did he then do to appease the masses? He told shareholders what they wanted to hear and gave an update of $200K a month income from alluvials mk2 + GF by end of the year.

Lets see if this proves to be correct.

At least if it’s not, he will quickly appease disgruntled shareholders again with a revised prediction of probably $300K a month income by end of January!

Who on earth would believe that? I assume CB thinks, most Xtract shareholders!

Maybe CB is reluctant to give a full and honest update now as he knows that if he does then two things will happen:

1. SP will fall
2. Shareholders will then know that he has not been completely honest with his previous comments.

Just a thought...

I think its too early to know if there is a funding problem or indeed any other major reason why we havnt had any news re parts movement. However, if we don’t get news soon then it would appear that there is a problem that CB has not informed shareholders of?

If so, then this would, imho, show that CB had been very deceptive (I’m being kind using that phrase) with his comments prior to the borders opening. He repeatedly said that once the borders are opened then ‘we’re off’ and the only issue was the borders being opened.

Well the borders have been opened for nearly 2 months now.

I’ll give him until xmas before I come to that conclusion (that's assuming no news by then). CB could, potentially, have made one BS comment too far for many shareholders.

I hope I'm wrong.

That’s very sad news. I assume the 65 in his username was his year of birth – so no age at all.

Puts worrying about investments into perspective.

'I think all the long term sufferers here deserve a decent and in-depth update on where we are on all projects'.

Be careful what you wish for,.... it may come true!

Ignorance + hope can, sometimes, be bliss :)