Member Info for Andrew4444

in my ISA account. There is a '+ ' sign next to value of holding.

Also, text colour has done from Red to Blue.

It was 6 years ago the last time that happened :)

All very strange.

Probably back to normal soon!

Eastern

This is why I said recently that getting the predicted $200K a month from GF + alluvial Mk2 would stop any talks of further dilution. The Sanderson's loan facility is hanging over us in the background. May not be used, but then again......

Hopefully CB will give us an update this month re this predicted $200K a month.

O and W

The 1% / 2% stated is not the grade, its the sale value calculation x contained copper.

Lucky

I agree with your calcs.

Before we all get too carried away we may not even get to 1M tonnes, let alone 2 M. As you say, a lot more drilling to do!

Lucky

I had a chat with Dcat 81 on this issue about 3 Jan.

We both agreed that 1 to 5% of contained copper in ground was the range valuation. I have seen sales of 2% before and Dcat thought a range of between 2-4% was reasonable as the location was good.
I think a figure of 2% is reasonable.

CB said majors are only interested if we get at least 1M contained copper.
AA have a threshold of 2M

If you use POC as a conservative $7500 you can do the maths yourself (620M shares and conversion 0.75 $ to £)
This is assuming drill results can get us to at least 1M contained copper. They may not.

If we dont get to 1m then not too sure how to value the asset as we may not get many / any offers due to small relative size. Maybe using 1% would give an indication?? That's a guess though.

I didnt buy, that was a dummy order. I thought you meant you couldnt get a quote ie couldnt buy.

I've been able to buy from open at 1.85p (x-o account)

Ask just gone up to 1.852p

Hello CE

Happy New Year to you all LTH's !

I believe, It was reported that the additional income from Alluvials Mk2 + GF would be £200K a month by end of the year.

Although this is not a massive amount of income, think this additional income would have a significant affect on the SP. It would not only more than double our current income levels, but it would be seen as 'Proper' mining (to quote Mr Ford). GF income, which would be most of the income, would be seen as a reliable income stream month after month (if not 100% same each month). The market will like that.

That level of income should also stop any talk of dilution as it should see the group in profit overall. So not a lot of income on one level, but one that should, I think, make a significant difference to the SP and show the market we are now a proper mining company...oh and that CB can actually deliver !!

MunchBox

In answer to your question re the price AA will have to pay IF we get to 400mt. AA’s option to buy is if we get 2m tonnes of contained copper so 400mt may not be enough to trigger the AA buy option.

IF we get to 2m tonnes then there are two ways of calculating the sale price. One by % of contained copper value in the ground (typically 1 to 5% ) and another by £/tonne of contained copper. Valuations range between £150 to £300 / tonne. That second methodology was from another poster Dcat 80 who is more knowledgeable than me on this issue. I've only ever seen the % way used.

Typically, I’ve seen small juniors like Xtract sold for 2% of contained value in the ground. If we assume its 1% (very low) then the value should be $160M, assuming POC at $8000 a tonne and at 100% of licence sold, not the 80% option AA has. So (2000000 x $8000) x 1% = $160M = £120M = circa 19p sp at 620M shares.

If we do the calculation using the lowest £/tonne method ie £150/tonne then that works out at $300M= £225M=circa 36p sp.

This all sounds wonderful, but it’s important to remember that there is no guarantee we will get to 2m of contained copper and these figures are 100% of sale not 80%.

That said CB has said before, that majors will be interested in 1m tonnes of contained copper, even if AA consider that too small. So at 1m tonnes (half those figures above) ie 9.5p or 18p may be possible depending on methodology. That’s with 1m tonnes and we already have 300K before drill results.

Of course IF, big if, we do get to 2m tonnes and AA buy the all of the licence, and we get a more typical valuation (2% of contained copper or £200/ tonne) rather than the lowest I used, then we could be looking at a sp of 40p to 50p…maybe more. Maybe that’s why CB said in the TW interview he’s looking at the company getting to £400M MC?

Tbh I think it more likely we will get to 1M tonnes of contained copper and not 2M, so more likely AA wont be buying this but another major. That said, that should see the sp get to the teens on bushranger alone - which is excluding any additional valuation of the income plays. They may add another 6p to 8p?? That's why I think its possible and realistic, with a bit of luck, we could see the SP in the 20's over the next 9 to 18 months.

That's not a ramp. If I was ramping I'd go for the possible 50p valuation !


Of course AIMHO. I may be wrong. Others will have different views.

I've said before I think its 50/50 that 10p will be broken IF all the income projects deliver as predicted. That may be a big ask as many previous forward guidance often missed predictions.

That 10p sp possibility, is excluding bushranger. IF drilling results are good and IF we get to 1m tonnes of contained copper (CB's threshold for majors to buy) then 20p to 30p is realistic imho.

CB said in an interview recently that we wont have to wait until Feb / March for the results. It was noticeable that he did not include January, so my gut feeling has always been that results will be released in Jan - probably early Jan.

I would think he may want to release all results together and as Gold needs to be sent away for lab results that may mean we have to wait until early Jan before all results are released?

That's my best guess and of course it could be wrong.

Dcat

Not too sure if I can help much as it was all very strange and some time ago.

Some time ago sanderson holdings appeared on the register as a major shareholder and there did not seem to be any announcement or explanation. At the time many commented on this. I think sandersons were holding 60M shares at the time.

As far as I am aware, the first time we were notified of them holding any shares was on 5 Nov via TR1 saying they were down to 20M. I'm assuming they are now selling the last few million???

It was a long time ago when they received these shares and at the time many were surprised that they had suddenly appeared on the major shareholders list.

Others on here will have a better memory than me or may be able to give you more info. So hopefully someone else (LW, Gixxer, CE??) will be able to answer your question?

I wonder if its sandersons selling their last remaining holding or the aussies starting to let go some of their 25M loose shares ?

May break it today?

lets see if POG can get back to $1900 before xmas.

be picking-up.

That's always a good sign...unless its a wall of sells every day :)

It may surprise some that POG has outperformed POC over last 1 yr and 3 yrs. However, POC is now outperforming POG over last 6 months.

Commodity analysts think copper will be the best performing metal in 2021, but Gold is also predicted to do very well next year, and depending on the strength of $ and inflation next year, Gold could out perform copper?

Tbh, I'm very pleased we are in both and think it will be a close call which does best in 2021.

$2200 POG and $9000 POC is very possible by this time next year.

Now that would be nice !

Hello CE

I don't remember his prediction as far back as 2018, but I do remember his most recent predictions for POC and POG in May this year, made in the TW interview. What surprised many was more his POG prediction not so much POC.

He predicted POG to remain in a range of $1400 to $1700 for 2020, then falling in 2021 and falling again 2022. I think we are all pleased to say he got that wrong ! (well for this year anyway !)

His POC prediction was $6500 by end 2020.

I'm pleased he also got that wrong. In a good way!

When you said.. 'Developing it' I wrongly assumed you meant taking it in to production.

My mistake.

On a separate but related point, my understanding is that 2% of contained copper in ground x POC is a reasonable estimation of the sale value. From looking at your figures of $150-$300 per tonne, maybe 3% seems more of a reasonable figures to use.

Thanks

From the many interviews CB has done re bushranger, it seems that his first option is to sell this to a major and not develop. As CB puts it,

' I want to tie a big bow around it (Bushranger)'

This is CBs MO as he's done it many times before with other very large assets. So we may not see a 50 bagger (due to Bush ranger not being developed), but if all goes to CB's plan, we may betting a substantial cheque in the 10s of millions from AA which could see the SP possibly hit double figures??

All subject to good drilling results, so lets not count our chickens' too early !

NtM

You're probably right.

I can't think of any logical reason why SP wont be much higher this time next year but ..... once bitten etc

Actually, that should be 10 times bitten :)