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I am sleeping very well Patience since France beats England at the World Cup ;)
I hope you are right but I don’t see Avatar 2 reaching 1.5bn mark
It will be massive like Black Panther 2? The movie won’t reach $800m the first one reached $1,4bn. I went to the cinema to watch The Menu although a really good movie the cinema was empty. Avatar 2 will do fine for 1 or 2 weeks maximum
Binary I agree if we come out from Chapter 11. Makes sense. But how come we can come out from Chapter 11 with low B.O. we still have less than 100 movies for November compare to 240 movies pre pandemic. We will be negative for the next 7 months (losing money on a monthly basis)
Hey Hexam Yes I forgot the interest rate even if I had it in mind. I have in my portfolio some airlines stocks and they are projecting similar things. As an example in 2019 the number of passengers stood at 5bn and for 2022 they project at 3bn which represents 60% of 2019 level. If you do the same of the Box Office $11,300m for 2019 and c. $7350m for 2022 which represents 65% of 2019 level. Even if I agree that they are different sectors but I wanted to highlight people behaviour in terms of how long it will take to have the similar life of pre-covid.
Airlines expect to beat 2019 level by 2024 so do the B.O in my opinion. Hopefully the lenders will take this into consideration (at least they will be sure to receive their $8bn debt)
Quarter 2 of this year US Box Office stood at $2,235m which is roughly $775m per month over the period and still negative. So with the inflation and the cost of energy we need at least $800m per month… which is $9600m in a year represents 85% of 2019. That’s the minimum. So not before 2024/2025 if the number of movies stays low.
Sand Grove Capital Management LLP shorted Cineworld on the 14/11/2022 and has a short position of -0,50%.
New Holland shorted more on the 4/11/2022…
I am a long time buyer but my hope is 0 for this stock and the company…
Thanks Hexam makes sense.
My average is at 38p so still high even though I tried to reduce it from 52p.
In the certification that I am taking (FRM) they mentioned about Chapter 11 and the strategy of distress Hedge Funds and at the end there is always a NewCo company but there is no information about the existing share holders…
As expected nobody is responding.
Thanks for that Level5
@Hexam HNS do you have an idea?
Is it the end?
Thanks Hexam for your response.
I can see that Fidelity Management &research bought 62k of shares yesterday.
The most important for the moment is the Box Office for at least the next 6 months
Hey Hexam hope you are doing well.
I have one question about the Bankruptcy. Technically it will last until Q1 2023. But according to Cineworld they will still be negative until June 2023. Even if the Box Office will do better in 2023 than 2022 what will be the probability that Cine will come out from Bankruptcy knowing that they will be negative until June 2023?
Do we know which types of buyers pushed the price at that level?
Yes I am sure. I didn’t see global city holdings and for Goldman Sachs they sold almost all their holdings on the 13/10/2022.
Hi there,
Could you please tell me where did you see that Mooky and his family own 20% of the business ? I can see on Bloomberg that Moshe and his brother Israel own 0.16% only. I can see that Goldman Sachs sold almost all its shares from 3.14 to 0.14%. All the buys are coming from retails (client accounts)…
Thanks
Hey Hexam,
It makes sense thanks for that.
Any idea why in the UK we did not well compare to last period? I can understand for ROW due to the war in Ukraine.
Thanks
Hope you are all well.
There are few things I don’t understand the B.O. in H1 2022 was $245m more than H2 2021 and we only did 3 million more in terms of Revenue ($1,515.1M vs $1,512.1M)
The second thing is why the Net Income is negative $293m knowing that it was only negative $110m for the same period in H2 2021.
Thanks
Hi Hexam,
Sorry for the late response.
I understand now it is lower than Bloomberg prediction of 1,745m$.
So it means the full year will be at c. 3.2/3.3bn$
Hey guys could you please tell me what was the H1 2022 revenue? I just want to compare it with the forecast of Bloomberg. I didn’t find Cine statement for the first semester of 2022. Thanks
At Wolf I was interested by the forecast I was surprise by the increase of the forecast by Bloomberg
Ok let’s assume there are irrelevant but why did they increase their forecasts then ?
Bloomberg Intelligence said that B.O. in 2023 would be close to 2019! Is this irrelevant as well?
I haven’t checked Cine on Bloomberg for a while and I have found something really interesting. They have increased their forecast on Cine revenue for 2022 and 2023. From $3.643bn to $3.828bn for 2022 and from $4.205bn to $4.364bn for 2023.
What do you think of their forecast?