Member Info for Albi1

Nigwit

Having said that, look for criticism of Tony Seba - found this link by an equally respected analyst - likely the truth lies somewhere between the two.

https://twitter.com/mliebreich/status/981805979594579969?lang=en

Nigwit

Thanks for that link. Fascinating article, Seba, as an MIT Graduate and MBA from Stanford, describes a credible and encouraging future.

Thanks for the many different POV aired here. I raised the original question in terms of how do folk see investment sentiment toward O&G changing given the heightened momentum we are seeing on our streets, in the media and in Institutional Investors under pressure to switch lanes.

I realise this is a potentially divisive subject but as an investor in Hurricane it does feel a little relevant at the moment.

Poiu

China is an interesting case in point. In just a few decades the pace of change, social, economic and environmental has been extraordinary. While they have caused a tremendous amount of damage to their environment and wildlife, and their approach to governance is very different from ours, credit is due for their willingness to engage and problem solve to mitigate pollution long term.

Nigwit

Understand your point, nevertheless some interesting posts today. Appreciate your insight and perseverance!

Biffadog

Expressing concern means I've done my homework and I'm still here. I'm not putting my head in the sand and telling other people what to do!

Nigwit

Yes read the L&G announcement, plus other pension funds in the UK and the US. I broadly share your discomfort but am hoping timing for Hurricane will win out.

All the best

Nigwit

Glad to see you back. So in response to your post - when do you see peak availability of capital?

Yuyus,

I guess the fact you're invested here says it all. I think your family, though, are about to see a positive shift in their dealings, it just makes good economic and environmental sense and the main factor here is heat + time = gameover.

DiveCentre

Yes, I realise Nigwit's views were not well received, though I don't think it was necessarily his views but perhaps the way he expressed them which, as one of the 'over invested' myself, didn't exactly encourage an open exchange.

It is about timing really, but as ever the market will follow the money. I'm hoping Hurricane's WoS exploration sees fruit before IIs switch horses altogether.

Biffadog,

Thanks again for your response. Yes it is the lower appetite I am looking at and note, but clearly I see the business case here and remain fully invested at the moment. Renewables won't give me the return I'm looking for in the next few years so am hoping things start to lift a bit here come October/November. None of this is a concern for many LTHs who may have derisked sufficiently anyway!

Yes Cebo-456,

However, in much the same way as we had horses and carts and now don't, electricity, nuclear power, solar, wind turbines ... there now appears to be a rather compelling momentum to make the next technological leap. Quite where Hurricane is going to fit in the middle of all this I really don't know!

Best

Albi

IamNot

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. My particular situation means I am heavily overweight on Hurricane. Actually I'm currently all in but frankly a bit embarrassed to admit to that.

I can't see any issues with this share apart from a political/geopolitical shift and yes, a 'black swan' moment. My thinking being buy low now, derisk incrementally at 20%, 40% etc... leaving the free shares to ride while reinvesting profit in a more sustainably diverse portfolio - actually, pretty much as AquaeSulis01, perhaps in jest, has posted!

I know renewables have been on the scene for decades now but what's definitely shifted is the political will to get behind them. I have a lot of reading to do around renewables and the players in the market, vanadium mining and the economic rise of China and Russia, China in particular is well positioned in Africa and at home to capitalize on a new wave of battery technology.

Biffadog, thanks for sharing your views. I am genuinely asking, particular those in the industry, what their views are with no intention to scaremonger but to hear different points of view in relation to my investment.

Thanks all.

At the risk of getting shot down in flames, I'm posting this to see what other folks views are currently. Nigwit flagged this up some time ago for discussion but it didn't quite happen.

From what I have read in the last few years, particularly last few months, it would appear we have entered the transition stage from fossil fuels to non carbon dioxide emitting alternatives. Trees take decades to grow, but the technology for heat pumps, solar and wind has arrived. Vanadium batteries are improving and it will only be a matter of time before this technology develops to a point where the production of electricity is not linked to fossil fuel.

It’s interesting, geopolitically, 85% of the world’s vanadium, supposedly, is deposited in China, South Africa and Russia. Back home the challenge is how do we convert current housing stock to run on alternative systems. Where we thought we had more time to change clearly given the rate of ice melt at both poles, that time is now very finite to prevent an ongoing cycle of destruction to our ecosystem.

The fact is whatever your view on why it is happening, the climate is heating up at a rate of 1% and rising. The UK has committed along with other countries to keep it under 2%. If they are serious about this then we are going to see a radical shift in investment strategy in pension funds (major universities in the US and UK have divested) etc.

In turn that is going to affect us, it will depress the price and that is the goal of activists. How much it will depress the price - this year will tell us. Based on this I am going to rebalance my portfolio accordingly.

I hope I am wrong to the extent we still need an independent fuel source until renewables and the infrastructure to make them usable are able to take over. However, the main risk here is a seismic shift in sentiment and MM’s following the ‘new money’.

What do folk on this BB see unfolding in the next 2 years?

Good question Zebbo, any mathematicians out there who can answer his question based on contingent vs proven?

IAmNot,

https://www.ogj.com/articles/2019/04/chrysaor-to-acquire-conocophillips-uk-oil-and-gas-business-for-2-675-billion.html

"These assets complement our existing operations and, with operating costs at less than $15 per barrel across the enlarged group, our portfolio delivers high margins and significant positive cash flow. In the Central North Sea, we will own a range of operated hub infrastructure providing access points in an area with the largest undeveloped contingent and prospective oil and gas resource base in the UK. In the West of Shetlands region, we have secured long life cashflows from two world-class fields operated by BP. Chrysaor’s West of Shetlands position also provides exposure to a developing region with significant interest and momentum from major oil companies. We will seek to build on that through the acquisition of additional interests and acreage," said Phil Kirk, Chrysaor chief executive.

Chrysaor is backed by Harbour Energy, a permanent capital energy investment company managed by EIG Global Energy Partners. Chrysaor will fund this acquisition from existing cash resources and an upsized $3 billion Reserve Based Lending debt facility underwritten by Bank of Montreal, BNP Paribas, DNB Bank, and ING Bank."

Sipp, Extrader, Rangers1, Primetime et al,

Read up on Chrysaor yesterday, I could see them being interested in Hurricane given their current assets and strategic direction. WOS seems to me to be an area very much of interest to them.

A potential suitor for Hurricane?

Foresight, very funny, though hope they are having some fun out there!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-47965284