Going fwd4 Oct 2018 08:30
I assume this will just tick along for a little while while the company try to organise finance, then a RNA, then a downward share movement.
I did think there would be a bit of a bounce.
If only we could get back to those heady suspension days of 0.36 or similar!
What is scary would be a share issue to raise funds, at these prices it will take Billions of shares to raise anything material. As said on wordstocks, a substantial share issue and a 1000/1 consolidation would be pretty devastating but potentially unavoidable.
If we were running at a 1.5m net loss per month in 2018 (based on 17m loss), we will have improved on that for sure, just based on oil price alone, but this still equates to a net loss per month. Even Lewis is predicting a substantial net loss with his 2019 year end turnover estimates, so at what point is this monthly loss going to erode the cash balance.
Taking into account the 1.6m loan payment due (could they just default on this and add it to the 20m loan balance?) which is due in a month or two and also taking into account the sundry payables of 8.5m due within 12m, can these be defaulted on. The auditors brought them into short term liabilities for a reason, they will be due. I was hopeful these might, for the most part, be accounting adjustments or similar, but from Eva's email the other day, it is royalties, local taxes and payments which must be made. I am not sure they would want to go down the road of defaulting on royalties and taxes.
Labour costs were predicted at 1.5m a quarter in the last quarterlies and there seems to be no move to reduce this, again no default can be made here.
With the petrofin issues and the rainy season and the lack if production increase as detailed by RRL itself, this points towards a monthly cash depletion that will need to be addressed.
Even a 'small' $3m share issue would equate to c60% of this company. If this company moves forward, which is becoming less likely, then the people to suffer will be the shareholders.
Lewis has pointed out that the debts are not secured. I will take this as fact, but this would not stop creditors forcing either legal action or bankrupcy etc etc.
Holding pattern for a few month, but if there is an RNA pre Xmas you can bet it will be bad news for the shareholder.