damac28 Jun '22 - 10:45 - 27012 of 27012
Fadac92 is wrong in that it is not Heavy Sweet Oil that is involved in that project. The following is the extent of Heavy Sweet Oil's future operations involving the TS2 site.....
"Greenfield also entered into an agreement with Heavy Sweet Oil LLC ("Heavy Sweet Oil"), a US based oil and gas company, to assist it with permitting and government relations in respect of their planned drilling programme adjacent to the D Tract of the TSHII site. Should Heavy Sweet Oil progress to producing oil it is anticipated that some of the supporting infrastructure for their operations would be located on the TSHII site. Such assistance is being provided alongside Greenfield's own work to progress its plans for the TSHII site. Heavy Sweet Oil are paying TomCo US$10,000 per month for its services, with the agreement backdated to start from 1 January 2022."
damac27 Jun '22 - 11:49 - 26997 of 27001
kdickson,
There is more info on reserve, volumes & revenues in the Netherland Sewell site reserves report from Jan. 2022 (which underpinned the Tomco presentation from Feb. 2022).
https://www.tomcoenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/TomCo-PRMS-Report-asof-12.31.2021.pdf
kdickson27 Jun '22 - 11:58 - 26998 of 27001
Thanks damac - I'll have a look at that.
damac27 Jun '22 - 12:15 - 26999 of 27001
I'm sure the Tomco presentation from Feb. 2022 was also based on achieving 10,000 bopd from the separation plant.
damac27 Jun '22 - 12:37 - 27000 of 27001
bountyfull #26996
This is the Proactive Investors report that was mentioned in that video....
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/966909/tomco-oil-sands-within-reach-966909.html/long
Further discussions on ADVFN
damac27 Jun '22 - 11:05 - 26993 of 27001
Kdickson,
Your sand figures are conservative. Tomco has the 'Base Case Scenario' at 56.5m tonnes per year. From memory I think the NAV worked out at around 44p just on the proposed Greenfield oil separation plant activities alone.
https://www.tomcoenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/TomCo-Greenfield-Web-Presentation-2022-02-01-02-V2.pdf
kdickson27 Jun '22 - 11:29 - 26994 of 27001
Thanks damac. I forgot to even look at that Tomco presentation! So, my figures are way too conservative if I'm estimating 'only' £50 million based on our plant producing 6,000t sand per day (= approx 2 million tonnes per year), when Tomco themselves are suggesting 56m tonnes. That's 28 times more than my estimated 27p !!! Can that really be possible?!!
damac27 Jun '22 - 11:39 - 26995 of 27001
kdickson,
I think Tomco were estimating something like 350-360 operational days per year as opposed to the 310 in your calculations.
The cash flow analysis was run on a pre-income tax basis, at discount rates of 0%, 7.5% and 15%; the results show potential economic benefit in the base case of a Net Present Value (NPV) of $1.285 billion, $602 million and $341 million respectively. The base case cash flow used a selling price of $40 per ton for the unprocessed dry, clean by-product sand.
Independently, the Company has recently completed the evaluation of the clean sand tailings [KD: i.e. actual] that are a byproduct of the oil extraction process. It was determined that:
- 60-70% falls within a 40-140 mesh size range with crush strength exceeding 8,000 psi, giving the sand an 8K crush factor and confirming that the sand is suitable for use as a fracking sand [KD: So could be higher than the 55% estimated by Petroteq above].
10th March 2022: RNS - TomCo Energy PLC TSHII Lease Agreement with Vivakor
- Plant designed to produce at least 1,000 bopd or equivalent tonnage of asphalt cement
- TSHII shall supply Vivakor with a maximum supply of 2,000 tons of oil sands per day
- Greenfield entitled to 50% net revenues for any post-processed sand material from plant
- Vivakor to cover cost of mining oil sands & pay TSHII $3 per ton of oil sands processed
Currently stated on Vivakor website
Our RPC situated in Vernal, Utah has the capacity to process up to 500 tons of naturally occurring oil sands deposits per day and estimate we will recover approximately 250 barrels of extracted hydrocarbons each day, to be sold as asphaltic cement or for energy.
With 1,748,000,000 shares and assuming the long-term median PE ratio for the mining industry of 9.5 and conversion of $1 = £0.82, we get:
£8,492,000 / 1.748 bn = 0.0049 x PE 9.5 = 4.6p per share
Additionally, Tomco would also receive $3 per tonne of mined oil sands. A 1,000 bopd plant would need 2,000 tons per day of oil sands, which is 620,000 tonnes per year @ $3 = $ 1,860,000 or £1.5 million. This equates to another 0.8p per share giving at total possible share price of 5.4p per share (based on £9,992,000 income).
Our own 5,000 bopd plant
Once we build our own 5,000 bopd remediation plant, that should produce 6,000 tonnes of clean sand per day (as estimated by Petroteq, whose technology we are licenced to use). We would receiving 100% of the income (not 50% as from Vivakor).
All the numbers above could then be multiplied by 5 (5 x 1200t sand):
= £50 million per year and price of 27.1p per share
Of course, we would continue to receive the Vivakor sand offtake income in addition to our own income from our sand sales:
Total income = £ 60 million per year (£10 million from Vivakor + £50 million from our 5k plant)
Share price = 32.5p per share
And remember this is only sand income!! Hydrocarbon sales would be on top!
POST ENDS.
*********************************
Following are various articles and sources used:
Feb 4th 2021: Vivakor’s asphaltic cement, created from bitumen in its Utah facility, identified as performance grade
…third party testing has concluded that Vivakor’s remediated bituminous material in Utah has been tested as performance grade asphaltic cement…Matt Nicosia commented “We have begun the commercialization of this product and plan to produce approximately 50 tons of asphaltic cement [bitumen] per day”.
KD note: ‘asphalt cement’ is referring to bitumen, the petroleum based sticky black liquid that is used as a binder to hold (i.e. ‘cement’) the asphalt aggregates of sand, gravel, etc together.
15th Feb 2022: Petroteq Announces Economic Evaluation of Sands by Product from Oil Extraction:
Summary of findings fromevaluation report by Broadlands Minerals Advisory Services.
The Report is premised on the completion by Petroteq of an extraction plant capable of producing sands suitable for use as:
(a) fracking sand
(b) bulk construction sands
(c) silica flour
Broadlands economic analysis focused on the markets available for the sale of these 3 categories of by-product sands and noted that an extraction plant producing 5,000 bpd is estimated by Petroteq to be capable of yielding 6,000 tons of sand per day or 1,860,000 tons per year (based on 310 operating 24 hour days per year), with following breakdown of each sand by saleable product:
- fracking quality sand 55%
- bulk sand 30%
- silica flour 15%
The economic forecast is based on 20 years sales from such a 5,000 bpd operation (following 2 years for construction/start-up of the extraction plant, sands processing facility
kdickson post on ADVFN
Inspired by FISHYNECK’s post 26625 (28th Apr), I’ve had a more detailed look at the value to Greenfield of the remediated sand value from the Vivakor offtake deal announced 10th March (all the sources I’ve used are listed at the bottom of this post).
POST STARTS….
Remediated sand valuation
I believe that Vivakor’s strategy is to build smaller Remedial Processing Centres (RPC) and are planning to build 4 on the TSHII site (and 100 RPC’s eventually but not necessarily on TSHII land).
Each RPC can process 500 tons per day of oil sands and recover 250 bopd. This is probably where the “at least 1,000 bopd” figure comes from in the Tomco RNS 10th March.
Sand Yield
Firstly, we need to know the sand yield – the amount of cleaned sand coming out of each RPC.
Someone guesstimated it might be about 1.5 tons per barrel of oil but we can get a better, and more realistic, figure from Petroteq’s planned 5,000 bopd plant, which they say should yield 6,000 tons of sand per day. This equates to 1.2 tons sand per 1 barrel of oil. It seems a good assumption that Vivakor’s smaller RPC may yield the same sand amount, so 1.2 tons is probably quite realistic.
Another conversion I’ve used is:
1 barrel of bitumen (asphalt) weighs approx. 200kg so 1 tonne = 5 barrels.
So now we can work out the following ‘per day’ figures for Vivakor’s RPC:
RPC…Oil Sands In……HC’s (bopd)…HC’s (tonnes)…..…Sand out (tonnes)
1……….500 tons pd……250 bpd….….…50 tpd (div by 5)……300 tpd (250 x 1.2)
4…….2000 tons pd…1000 bpd………200 tpd (div by 5)...1200 tpd (1000 x 1.2)
This ties in with Vivakor’s, Matt Nicosia, who said in Feb 2021 that they “plan to produce approx. 50 tons of asphaltic cement per day” [that must have been per each RPC].
Sand by product
Again, using Petroteq’s evaluation report (above), it seems reasonable to use their percentage break downs per category of cleaned sand and work the out numbers relating to Vivakor’s RPC.
I’ve assumed the following prices (based on various recent sources):
- Fracking sand (55%) = $50 pt (prices range $50 to $70 pt)
- Bulk sand (30%) = $20 pt (ranges from $20 to $25 pt)
- Silica flour (15%) = $150 pt (ranges from $150 to $200 pt)
Income from Sand
Applying the sand prices to Vivakor’s RPC, based on all 4 being built (1,000bopd and 1,200t sand per day), and assuming 310 operational days we then get:
Sand Type……%age…..Per Day….Per Year…Income/Year……Our 50%
Fracking…………55%…..660t…………204,600t ….$ 10,230,000…..$ 5,115,000pa
Construction… 30%…...360t……….111,600t ….$ 2,232,000…...$ 1,116,000pa
Silica Flour……..15%…...180t……….…55,800t ….$ 8,370,000…….$ 4,185,000pa
Totals…………….100%…1200t………372,000t….$ 20,832,000……$ 10,416,000pa
So, that's $10,416,000 (£8,492,000) to Greenfield / Tomco per year after all 4 of Vivakor’s RPC are built and operational (by end of this year?) and producing 1200 tonnes of sand.
For all Zac Mir fans, retest up to 5p on the cards after bullish move upwards in recent days ;)
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-june-20-a7a1257
Quadrise news and moving projects forward.
Material Transfer & Cooperation Agreement
Further to the announcement on 9 May 2022, Quadrise (AIM:QFI), the supplier of MSAR® and bioMSAR™ emulsion technology and fuels, providing innovative lower cost and lower carbon alternatives to fuel oil and biofuels, is pleased to announce it has signed a new Material Transfer & Cooperation Agreement (the "Agreement") with its client in Morocco (the "Client"). This Agreement supersedes the original agreement with the Client, announced on 29 November 2019.
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/quadrise/news/rns_widget/story/xpn233r
Addendum to Representation Agreement and Conditional Grant of Warrants
Quadrise (AIM:QFI), the supplier of MSAR® and bioMSAR™ emulsion technology and fuels, providing innovative lower cost and lower carbon alternatives to fuel oil and biofuels, announces that it has entered into an addendum (the "Addendum") to the 2019 Morocco Representation Agreement announced by the Company on 6 March 2019 (the "RA") with Younes Maamar (the "Consultant").
https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/quadrise/news/rns_widget/story/xegvlyw
All positive and moving forwards as per the last RNS just NINE days ago.
Commenting, John Potter, CEO of TomCo, said : "We continue to make good progress with our plans for the TSHII site and are pleased with the positive results we have already seen from the three exploration wells. We are also advancing the previously announced due diligence exercise being undertaken by a potential financing party currently interested in backing our plans for Greenfield, together with other matters in relation to the TSHII site.
"The Company's Board has recently undertaken a site visit to Utah and met with the Valkor team and our sand off-take partner. Whilst in Salt Lake City the Board also met with the Company's local professional advisers and were able to view some of the cores recovered from the exploration wells, which are being stored at the Utah Geological Society's core store. We look forward to providing further updates in due course."
All no doubt going on behind the scenes until such time as they are ready to get this party started again. Plenty of news and developments to come given the four projects currently in play so plenty to look forward to. Frustrating thing is obviously the waiting however this has to end shortly given the nature and timelines of these projects and the players involved, i.e. in-situ wells, Vivakor, Valkor etc.
Zac showing to potential route to 4p+ in the coming weeks with 2.5p now support.
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-may-20-d9a945f
Zac showing to potential route to 4p+ in the coming weeks with 2.5p now support.
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-may-20-d9a945f
Time for Zac Mir again ;)
https://www.**********.co.uk/articles/traders-cafe-with-zak-mir-bulletin-board-heroes-may-12-1871607
Posted this on ADVFN but might it be a suggestion to both Tomco and Valkor boards that when they complete the financing and Valkor assume there 29 percent position, they have designated PR to avoid these PR black holes.
It will be in Valkor’s interests to get the Utah projects in the public domain, keep investors fully informed and given that Valkor have just revamped their website, they understand the importance of this issue moving forward.
https://vivakor.com/utah/
Lots of info and pics on the Vivakor website.