Member Info for AIMtodeath

Stummer - some of the selling could be continued pre warrant fund raising, depends on the liquidity/cash position of some of the warrant holders, there is £500k to come from non MB/K direction, someone has to find the money. However I think they would be dumb to sell pre news when they don't need to cash in warrants until April. However, K had to raise funds for Volt, then he was likely to have to pay tax on the profit of selling all the shares for Volt, then as he has more warrants to finish probably needed to get the cash for that.
There is nothing in the battery narrative or EV sales narrative that says to me that there is a demand issue for the foreseeable future and given graphite pricing increases throughout the last year, says that demand is increasing for all types of graphite.
The project remains in any mining terms a very economic (and safe as it can be risk wise) project that wil not be hard to see progress in a market looking more supply, it is low cost and high quality so finance sees it as a lower risk to back.

Older - some of the above applies to negotiations, demand (even 18months ago we had 100+% of offtake in MOUs, there will be more interest now), high quality, tested and suitable to the markets to be sold into, good economics (buyers want a company that can repay finance and stay afloat in low cost environments). To me we are entering a sellers market, buyers won't have the same leverage as 1-2 years ago. We have a wide basket so not commited to one offtaker, different industries with different demands/needs so not reliant on the one source to take the product.

I purely used it as an example of copper plays where volitiity is no less guaranteed in other popular AIM companies, by no means a slight on the play itself.

I think RMM first major pullback was in part due to the huge overhang created originally at 22-24p which those involved were always going to take some money off the table at 60p odd, but from what little following I did, there were some delays and finance issues to clear up. So a few hiccups as always is the way. Some brave souls well repaid averageing down in the low 20s now it has got into its groove again. Low prices don't mean anything other than opportunity sometimes.
In some ways a little like ACP, Kabunga was an overhang of stock that had reason to leave, which has impacted the mining licence news and value add. Fundamentally as per RMM nothing changed and the sector bouyant, so those with the faith that can buy in or add will no doubt be rewarded well across the next year, nevermind end of Q1.

https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/pvzx17/dd_armadale_capital_plc_acplse_large_flake_high/

Go here and look at the Benchmark Minerals slide I copied from the presentation on Monday, it is the last one with 'ZOOM' at top of the picture..... look at the points BM are making about Graphite, these guys are market leaders in their field regards EV commodities, that looks like they are very bullish on graphite demand.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/electric-vehicles-and-tech-catalysts-in-40m-deal-for-northern-graphite

Northern Graphite easily found $40m in finance from Sprott to buy 2 mines. One only has 3 years LOM left. So I suspect getting $40m for 15years of mine and NPV of $500+m won't be a problem

https://snip.ly/s6o0dt?no_cache=1638375326#https://www.nxtmine.com/news/articles/energy-critical-metals/tsxv-gph-graphite-prices-heading-higher-on-market-tightness/
- Does this sound like there will be a demand problem for Graphite? Every chart has it as the biggest expansion of demand vs current supply.

Every EV commodity is going to have cycles, in fact every commodity has cycles.

Talk about looking at copper, how as it gone for ARS, or ARCM of late and copper price is flying. What about RMM, roller coaster there, AIM shares of any kind or commodity have their moments. If you want safe go for a FTSE 100 producer and look for 10% gains, ACP is a very economically favourable mining venture vs any commodity/company with htose DFS figures, it is grossly undervalued to its NPV and when further derisked value will increase but more than 10%! Look at peer valuations on finance complete this is easy 100m, x4 todays price. That is why there is greater risk because there are greater rewards....thats investing. But look at the journey and the risks now mitigated. Resource drilling, finding resource, building resource, JORC resource, SS, PFS and DFS to show economics, FEED, CSIRO, EISA, Mining Licence.....all steps that had risk and provided reward. There are still some steps and definitely reward to come. However, do they seem manageable? Well graphite prices are rising as demand goes up, demand projected to continue rising through the decade so product is needed new mines are needed (I suggest you watch Benchmark Minerals latest presentations especially the Graphite one from Monday 8am - They don't think there will be enough mines to keep up with demand) so getting offtake shouldn't be a problem, but what gets you an offtake over others?... Well quality high TGC product does and ACP has that, it has been proven. Finance....well get the offtakes and the finance can see you have buyers, what is the risk to finance, high capex and long pay backs with high cost mines....ACP is low capex, fast payment and will operate in the lowest cost quartile.

This is how I justify my decision

You need to leave the commodity space if this ONE article puts doubt in your mind. It needs context.....it is the ONLY article I have seen suggesting graphite is a volitile market, but probably based on 'historic' graphite demands and like ANY commosity has its ups and downs.....but there is a new demand factor in town that is going to cause a long term increasing CAGR for graphite to fullfill growing EV battery demands (and storage). This will take the swings out of demand in other sectors requiring graphite.

This report is a little shock jock, but it is putting in disclaimers....we told you to buy but we told you to sell if it turns, we are not to blame if you are left holding a bag.....and pick the right one...

The bull run with the pinch in supply for EV graphite is just getting started so by all means be careful but this is entry time.
Some points they make.
1. We believe there is a secular bull market in graphite stocks that will run throughout most of this decade.
- So graphite is interesting for the rest of the decade but it is secular, so prices go up and they go down but it is a 'bull' market. Why will prices go down at times, well there might be an even bigger chip shortage and battery production slows so does material needs.....but this will affect EVERY battery commodity and even the copper going into each car, or a load of mines arrive to market at once bringing new supply, but the market will catch up as EVs continue to expand.
- That means when your shares are flying, watch for a down turn in prices due to outside factors and position accordingly....investing 101
2. On a year by year basis we expect a typical cyclical evolution: powerful bull runs which are followed by good selling. The key is that those support levels hold.
- ERRRRRR investing 101....next!
3. 2022 will have at least one bull run, if not two
- hasn't started yet, you are on the start....but this affects producers more because it affects their bottom lines directly, not pre production that could be undervalued anyway awaiting important milestones, milestones bring value devoid of market prices
4.Be extremely careful picking graphite stocks
- Be careful picking ANY stocks. But if you do you pick the best economical ones, like look at BRES economics versus ACP, ACP is better on every metric, BRES might be boasting future possible large resources, so what, I won't be in graphite in 20 years, so what is the point
5. Most graphite stocks are not worth your time nor capital.
- ERRRR most stocks are not worth your time or capital....next!
6. The graphite stocks with prospects of becoming a producer before 2025 (well capitalized) are the ones that will be the most juicy stocks to hold.
- Which is exactly ACP! - They are saying getting to the table pre 2025 and producing through the mid decade bull run will reward those in early. No on eknows the graphite demand end of the decade, but I can assure you every chart for graphite demand is going up steeply r

I'm sorry but you are way off track here... Raising $40m for a x10 NPV with near on 100% IRR doesn't come much better in a mining stock!
This is a finance wet dream on returns.... Ie LOW risk.
EV and battery sector on fire.

You were also clearly told that the company was well funded with access to significant funds in the short term.

Suffering for years? If you bought in 2016 you've broken even and had a chance to sell in profit. If you bought in the next 2 years, you have done excellent here, that continued yearly in a rising channel, in fact the only people not in profit would be any purchases after the ML spike that K sold into. So, I find it hard to understand the suffering you suggest.
I agree comms has been low, but NDAs can cause that, we know the was no attempt to pump it when news of next development wasn't ready yet as it is wasted..... Given the seller who would be the only beneficiary.
It appears the Optimised DFS is the key here, this unlocks the story and frankly you don't type one up over a weekend, it is a serious bit of work and so you can't have news until err news is ready, no matter how hard you stamp your feet.

Damn £746k 1st July INCLUSIVE of warrant money since 1st July

Sorry £746k 1st July PLUS warrant money

Read the half year report, it will tell you how much they had, then add in the money from warrants since then.

MB has a load of warrants and he will cash those before he would raise.

£562k in cash 30th jun (plus £421k in investments that could be cashed in as required)
Sept - £110,967 warrant income
Oct - £43,311 warrant income
Nov - £29,500 warrant income

= £746k at the 1st July cash plus £400k in shares investments

Admin/pay is £157k half year so just a little under £600k

2.2p warrants will bring in £740k by end of start of March next year which MB alone would be £173k

Then another £790k by the end of next April.

So I'd say plenty of money to keep the lights on.

Cheers

The RNS literally refers to all sorts of tables and figures, but they are not there to look at.

Pretty important I'd have thought. I am interested in the quantities of P1 and P2 material

Q4 will do wonders for graphite pricing and scrambling for supply

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2278471-chinese-graphite-flake-prices-rise-with-tight-supplies#.YaY5X00SIB8.twitter

Oh some idiots will sell that is without doubt...

Snooze you lose it seems.... Much money watching here, cant catch the bottoms completely. With so much news to drop trying for a few % versus the jump on news.... Is it worth it?
This will trigger chartists, bounce off support with rising indicators.

Naturally there is a competition for shares down here from buyers.

Value buyers
Cash buyers that missed the original ML jump
Side line buyers that as soon as they see it turn will come flooding in
Technical/chart buyers

It is all in the zone for these people.

I think 1m shares is about the limit on any buying spree before the MMs are on the back foot and the bid has to race up to find new sellers. They keep a thin market here, MMs don't like to sit on a lot of shares.

This seller we know over 2 years has sold near 8% of ACP, we know why. Start of October had 16m, so suspect that is gone by now and the funds needed for Volt were well known (no doubt tax implications on cashing so much in). Now they have access to warrants....warrants ACP expect to see cashed in before build starts, it is part of the projected funds needed for build. If they are not taken they will be lost. This does not mean they will be instantly sold by said seller as they only sell when they are in need of funding their own new ventures. Even if they sell those they will have to be sold one day, but we know they are not being sold due to some worrying thing at ACP.
Many of the rest of the warrants are in the hands of MB, family and friends so suspect those to be held tight once taken.
NT is only when the MMs need to call a halt on proceedings to see if they can balance up the other side of the book, making a call will likely get the shares needed, they will just have to keep moving up the BID to capture new sellers and the buy volume comes back. Any purchase here below 5p is a steal, below 6 is still extremely good value, once this lot of news is out pre build I will be sorely annoyed if AIM cannot value this 10-12p conservatively. Bonus could be the DFS expansion pushing that NPV further out therefore instantly undervaluing it further. They literally just have to mine more than 25% of resource and put some figures on it. Teh resource is already there, but when the first DFS was done the market in EVs and demand for graphite was not as rosey as now and no one was looking to make huge mines, but it can be seen in BKM that once offtakers starting signing up it was clear more material was needed for market, same could be true here.

PR has been terrible, but he didn't want to waste money until the big push at the end, soft PR with the seller (known and reason - HZM have had distresssed sellers 3 times and many made a killing getting in lower due to it) would just be lost with seller soaking up. We await to see if the promised increase comes when the news starts to flow.

Blessing in disguise the delay? Graphite market has been moving on, prices whilst rising steadily from last year starting to crack on, slow output season in China now will lead to supply pressures and even better prices just as DFS is released and finance struck. Not a bad thing at all. Offtakes will have less leverage than they would have had a year ago, now they will be under pressure to offer better deals to secure, prepayment ever more likely than it would have 1 year ago.
Simple mining using simple techniques, low cost, high quality high TGC output (more wonga!), low capex but high NPV.... really low risk, under valued by AIM due to distressed seller and quiet output from company. Even Friday over reaction has lead to a price bargain hunt, but there may be a week of turmoil as markets come to terms Omicron is common cold not the devil incarnate....US markets needed an excuse to cool especially if they want a run up to Xmas.

Risks? Yes of course.
EVs - No risk of them slowing now
Battery tech - Does not matter if LFP or NCM, however new tech may add or replace with silicone in anode, or no anode....but no one expects these to have any real impact on the masses until 2030. The newer tech would only start in the premium sector, the low end and med range masses will make do with LFP long term due to pricing of the new tech.
However we are not dependent on batteries, over half our material is large flake and actually the higher income stuff, high battery demand is like a good by-product as it will enhance the low end of the basket pricing. It helps to have high qulaity out put with low impurities to be front of the queue.
Tanzania - Fairly stable as African countries go, new leader more business friendly, economics background, well known on international stage
Build and mine/plant - easy simple mine with basic well tested plant
CEO - aligned with shares, hurts us it will hurt him (and his family and friends!)
Finance - small and fast payback (just how they like it)
Covid - Well you have very few investments that won't so not ACP specific

hope this helps

Welcome to the fold.

My spidey senses had me be more bullish on ACP over HZM, which is part of my silence over there. I don't tend to bleat on about something when it had got to the end, it was just a waiting game, some others took that mantle on....some more keen than others...ha. I just felt the package was going to dissappoint, too many red herrings from the company.
I feel here there is more chance for a larger rise short term Q4 through to mid year next year. HZM will be dealing with overhang and will take time to get anything Vermelho out to market. Here has a plethra of news to come culminating in Finance and a short (and easier) build.
In fact the risks are significantly lower here over the short term compared to HZM bigger project. MB with 8%, family and friends up to 20% total means more aligned to the finance, economics capex/payback vs NPV is way safer and doable, build smaller and simplier, graphite pricing more stable, in both LFP and NCM batteries. The project is low cost high quality, it has a lot going for it!
As a reminder of where we are at -
https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/pvzx17/dd_armadale_capital_plc_acplse_large_flake_high/

Graphite 2022 -
https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/graphite-stocks-forecast-2022/

BBN on Twitter has some good threads, very good at reading between the lines of RNS and comparing to other projects and how things developed there.
Without doubt expect capex to go up due to inflation, however the basket of prices was set conservatively during low prices of 2020, even if we only go from $1112, to $1300 (peers use as a 'minimum') NPV jumps to $564m and 110% IRR.... this is before BBN drill down into what the 'optimised' DFS will bring. BKM upped their output when they optimised due to greater demand of product. To note their NPV whilst bigger requires 4 expansions but will need 3 x the capex just to start. If ACP expands more (note only using 25% of current JORC, so plenty of product in reserve) that NPV will balloon but will still be a tiny capex. This should be the easiest product to finance, imagine $750m+-$1b NPV with a $45m capex??? (CEO aligned!) Staged expansions are good in that they expand as needed and buyers get locked in future supply they don't need yet but won't have to go to a new/untested mine for that new supply competing with others. Getting from a current tested supplier a lot easier. If you don't need to expand then you don't no one loses out.

All to come very shortly -
Final Feed study accumulating in EPC - could lead to build now pay later and offtake
Final CSIRO battery qualifications
New staff
Optimised DFS
Offtakes
Finance
Build end of Q1 22

So wrong it is embarrassing....