RE: Warrants17 Dec 2021 20:50
Isle I think you mis understand my point. You are openly suggesting it is warrant holders...plural. You also suggested that every warrant would be presold as a matter of course.... I merely suggested that the only reason you have to sell a warrant is if you cannot afford to buy one with current funds. The rest is a decision.
You might derisk (then ask yourself do you need to derisk here.....look at the EV stance and graphite space, is there a short term risk on demand for graphite, does a near 100% IRR, low capex to NPV ratio and lowest quartile opex look a derisking high priority?) but you don't do it blindly just becaus eyou have a warrant, smart people who make money might also like to have their current shares and their warrants in place.
Warrants are often cashed in when the risk is gone, you sell the highly profitable shares and pick up replacements at a discount, here the problem exists thet there is a big derisking event mid warrant conversion. As you don't need to buy the warrants until Feb or Apr (did you know alllllll the warrants in Feb are either Kabunga or MB, not randoms - both with deep pockets) why sell now before offtakes and finance, all due before warrants need converted. (other 24mill are due Apr, practically build schedule, you would wait to get maximum value before selling and a lot to max value in the next few months, selling 4.3p to buy 3.25p shares in apr is not very good business sense unless you have to sell as discussed)
This is all a bit more thought out than 1 plus 1 = 4 because I think it. I am giving you good reason and argument for why it is not a wholesale sell and convert warrant exercise, you have some shares are sold and some warrants have been converted so all warrants will be presold as your conclusion.
We know Kabunga sold the heck out of his shares because not only did he need money for Volt but other investments in this last while. Not sure he has any left to sell until he actually convrets the warrants in Feb. Busienss man in the graphite space that knows this project, will he sell them straight away or hold to production....who knows but he will only sell if he thinks there is somewhere better to put it, but until the start of Dec he hadn't cashed those in yet.
The rectn HNWIs are 7p 18m warrants, they won't be cashed in, so we are looking at 24mill non recent HNWI, and not MB and not Kabunga. Don't forget MB family and friends are warrant holders, think they want a quick flip or would you follow MBs lead in getting the company to production if supported this far.
So even taking a minute to understand who the holders are and the timings, changes perspective.
Having seen a few warrants excercised you are suggesting all this is warrant selling, as I said had you not seen the rest of the market and some very low valuations for lots of other great shares, are they all warrant holder cnversion sells dragging them down too? Some big selling dragging down likes of HZM, leverage positions being unwo
Sign In
Follow the stocks
