RE: Question?6 Jan 2022 20:21
In terms of mine development we are in the final vinegar strokes (like that analogy too?) in becoming a producer (bar build and ramp up to finalise it). Equally so can be seen in valuations, to bow out now when you see what next door can do in a SP when a few more hurdles are overcome is missing the real money. It is practically the same ore, of about the same quality and spread. They have chosen a bigger mine build from day one that inflates their NPV somewhat though, they may never expand past 200k tpa but they still needed $130m to get the ball rolling!. We designed the DFS in a time when EVs slumped post China subsidy cut and rest of world had taken up the mantle and demand and prices were lower, hence we focused on a cors high TGC ore body for a low cost high return mine. We could easily double production with the resource at hand and still start with $40m but for 3 expansions and a $1bn NPV.
The ex Director was selling for 2 years essentially, that has provided opportunity albeit pishing off holders when gains are taken down by a major leaver, so to enter in any voluem now at this stage at this price is pretty lucky I think. I was prepared to buy at 6.2p after ML as I thought selling was done as I still saw plenty of value there.
But silence..... As you said before, it could be BRES that harp on everyday on twitter with absolutely no effect as it is such hot air. Bleating on about tying down MOUs at the moment! Really? They might get a quick burp in price but fall back straight away as people wonder how they will pay for any drilling to actually get a resource big enough to show better economics, because PFS ain't going to do much if no new info is added. Yeah might have a 2bn resource but frm an £8m Mcap how they ever going to drill that? GRpahite space isn't Lithium either and no one interested in a billion tonne resource that is 10+ years away.
But I digress, there was a change in the running order post ML. We were not expecting an Optimised DFS and really all news to come requires that be completed so all the pieces fall into place and ink is dried on the plan. Unless they try to reveal some content of those changes, there is nothing they can tell us about other than obligatory news. NDAs means you can't tell everyone whom you are looking to offtake too or finance with because if you have competition you can reveal to the others etc. I dare say for this output and easy finance we will have a few suitors being played off against each other for the best deals, deals that one does not rush either in a time of rising prices and tight demand with deficits looming.
I am sure he can tell the world the deals and partners once they are in place and do the presentations etal. I also think the OPT DFS has been variable with a few options tabled/figures used and discussions with others is shaping the final output of the DFS.
So I would love news but can understand why nothing can be said or is said until the final DFS is agreed