Member Info for AIMtodeath

https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/graphite-hydrogen-fuel-cell-technologies/26736/

New brown envelope rules.....Wine and dine, promote the right circles.

Finance will not complete unless EISA is confirmed....African bureaucracy no one can predict a time on.

Company making all the right noises incountry, a project that country will make large tax amounts on, be like shooting yourself in the foot not to give it go ahead, however history in Africa was companies behaving badly and little regard to environment, it is a BIG thing now and every African Gov seems to deliberate endlessly over the finest details of these EISAs to ensure that long term no project has a detrimental affect on the country.

But other than roughing up the dept in charge, not a lot the company can do. other than keep project rolling and ready to go on the nod.

Also be aware of those that pretend to be investors often giving plenty of chat about company but are in fact glorified traders at end of the day. Traders are often the most focal when a trade goes the wrong way and they are locked in.

I still stand by the if you do not actually have something new to say what is it you want to hear. Others having long discussions with Gov and projects delayed. Offtakes and finance simply will not materialise until this is signed. There is no reason to hurry those agreements, market improves for graphite daily now, so will the terms.
You can't have a DFS until % sorted.
What on earth could we be told other than this is happening? Do people believe someone that recently put in £172k and owns 8.1% of company is not speaking to offtakers and finance.
Yes I'd love to have seen the Gov act, BKT financed 6 months ago but that has not happened.
No one likes being in the red, we all like to have a warm fizzy feeling, but that does not take away from fact we know what is happening, just not at the timescale we want. However, graphite is becoming super hot snd a great cycle is approaching, this is a good resource with great economics.... Time will heal all wounds.

EcoGraf is finalising a framework agreement with the Tanzanian Government for the two advanced natural graphite projects, which will provide supply diversity and scale-up optionality.
The Company has held positive meetings with the Tanzanian Government in relation to the Epanko Framework Agreement for the development and operation of the proposed new mine, with both parties working to finalise the agreement.

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$870/t vs US$860/t

Sound like you just want the SP massaged so you sleep better..
What do you want MB to tell you every week that he is still discussing Gov %, then tell you the same the next week. You have been told the company is a. Discussing Gov % b. Talking to offtakers c. Talking to possible finance d. Finalising DFS.
Until any of those items change then that's your news! The same news every week until one of those changes.
Gov % is a hurdle, once secured, Special Mining licence updated to reflect Gov involved, then offtakers and finance can commit, because no one commits when regularatory hurdles remain. DFS numbers change when Gov % is factored in (but basket pricing will more than offset that), committed financing at BKT will underscore the DFS requirements for infrastructure and therefore more accurate numbers for finance to sign off on. Etc etc.
Do you need an RNS to tell you this? Most you know is happening the rest is obvious.

So when this company really has something to bark about it can PR the **** out if it with substance.
For example in one year you have say obe hood chance at a circuit if presentations yo barros groups in various countries. Do you waste that introduction on ifs what's and maybes ongoing, or do you wait for the last Gov hurdle cleared, final DFS numbers (Gov %, upto date pricing, upto date infrastructure responsibilities and far higher basket prices) and offtakes finally pegged down. I'd opt for the latter because the presentation circuit will not be as good second time around.
PR in magazines, websites and broker notes all on the back of presentations and progress. All wasted now.

What is even more shocking about BRES is they pumped the price with the funding carrot (little note, they might need money before then) and as soon as it moves they stiffed the company for 10% equity raise.... It barely skipped a beat and leaky as fk... See the sell down day before. Then once it kicked off again directors awarded themselves 2.5% of the company for just doing their job.... They get a salary to do their job! Again SP went up... Thats 12.5% dilution just like that. Now they are incentivised to take any damn deal comes their way so they get their payday. To get project funding as early as DFS and take the risk to completion, I cannot see that being particularly favourable to the company, MB whilst slow sure as heck ain't getting a bad deal against his 8.5% he makes money when the project is paying out dividends. Directors with large holdings can't just sell down after mine build, but taking divs for 15 years more than makes up for it. This is retirement level return.
Someone is not happy any PR just gives them liquidity to get out and probably higher price.... Fk them they can leave here, best use the liquidity they provide to hugely drop your average.

I'm also in EML, 2 years to get an EISA and the Government are on board and supportive.... 2 YEARS! Time scales that are just silly but that's just how it is, you accept or you whinge, but you cannot change it and asking for someone else to change doesn't work either because the decision is not in your hands.

What bit about not getting finance until Gov % is agreed DO YOU NOT GET.... FFS...
Discussions regarding offtakes and finance continue all the time, but you do not pull the trigger until you have your ducks in line... Now what should MB do threaten the Cadastre? Send in someone to rough them up? I'm interested to know what YOU think this do nothing person should be doing?
I was in negative equity for 2 years at HZM and came out with a profit OMJ.... you haven't lost a penny yet!....
Some said guy done nothing.... He did drill and confirm one of the highest grade resources in the world, achieved mining licence and environmental sign off.... Nothing then... Yep that's nothing.
Ask yourself why he put £172k in this company this year? Only a small amount of what already had gone in... I'm going to assume that is way more than anyone else has put in here... He clearly must be mad then if nothing is going to happen.... He has more to lose than you, good motivation I'd have thought.
There are a lot of reasons why BKT financed first is a benefit long term, but are they all useless directors because last time I checked its taken them 2 years to finance.
So way I see it most are just ****ed SP is down and some one is not rubbing your belly daily to comfort you.
I've stopped caring about time, I do not need to be told on twitter they are in discussions, still in discussions, still in discussions, still in discussions.... I KNOW.... they already told me. One does not put a time on Gov discussions, oh going well done next week, you cannot control the time and decisions of a Gov office, if you give a fixed time, they throw an extra question or clause so you are up against a walleither accept or let your shareholders down more. Say nothing!
Gov % will come, they need the industry, the tax, they've gone to the trouble of licence and EISA it is all above board. Thought that they might be asking for things that ACP doesn't want to give them, who blinks first..... Well you lot would blink like strobes and take a good pegging, top negotiators. Gov % involves getting into bed with the Gov, intigrating then into the company, local business use %, special mining licences etc.
I'm mega annoyed, but I have stored the emotion and asking for things that cannot happen and blaming others for not understanding the process and ridiculous times it takes to get a company to construction. Asset the same, graphite twice the price than the lows of 2019/20 and just hitting Chinese winter and EV sales at record levels.... That is what I concentrate on, my investment underwater and glacial pace but the choice to be in this space remains positive and regularly cemented. When I see one of the best projects in the world not financed and backed heavily by tier one interest I don't think I should have had finance at ACP before them.
Get some perspective, get some realisation of process and perhsps you'll stop wagging your finger at shadows so much

US President put Graphite and Lithium in the same sentence....

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1582816387097325568

Your opinion is incorrect! Jeez you have not a clue on what you comment...

ACP NPV is based on a 25% of their 'known reported resource', BRES 2% is based on finger in the air, 'not proven' drilled resource.

Yes because BRES said they will have offtakes and finding by year end that will happen......and in other news.... But A: that funding is not mine build that is to only pay for your DFS so in effect an equity raise and B: offtakers do not commit before you have DFS, EISA and mining licence in place....you know to a point they think they can have your material.

Oh and you have just redone your PFS figures with a higher $$$ basket case than ACP ($1112 vs $1307 which would add 30% to ACP NPV using the NPV sensitivity analysis!) - and you use 8% discount not 10%.....jeez In the detail, in the detail!

You are right they are very different however, but what you say is naive and completely untrue.... Thank you for passing by and letting us now what you don't really know...

So if you want me to come on your BB and explain a few details, more than happy, otherwise keep your FUD to yourself!

Expecting a deficit

We expect to see the graphite market tip back into deficit in late 2022. Strong growth from the battery sector is expected to persist into the final quarter of the year, with Chinese natural graphite production expected to decline as usual during the winter, with production cuts in Heilongjiang province.

The natural graphite market is forecast to remain largely in deficit until 2025.

As the strong demand growth from the EV battery sector propels graphite consumption upward, the industry will be relying on increased graphite production from established producers, primarily in China and Mozambique, with junior mining companies striving to ramp up production at new graphite operations.

The addition of new capacity has already faced significant delays, however, and we expect continued struggles for many new entrants, with an appreciable influx of new supply not expected to hit the market – and to remedy the growing underlying supply-demand imbalance – before 2025.

The direct effect of supply shortages could be felt even more keenly in the precursor and active anode material markets, namely uncoated spherical purified graphite (uSPG) and coated spherical purified graphite (cSPG), because the qualification process for new graphite supply to be used in the battery industry typically takes three years.

The impending graphite shortage, rising power costs, the drive by new entrants to develop renewable power supply sources, and the need to meet increasingly stringent environmental controls and restrictions, will all lead to significantly higher graphite prices in the coming years.

This will reflect both the incredible underlying market demand and the higher costs associated with graphite production. Graphite prices are in a lull, but this lull will prove to be temporary and may well be the calm before the storm.

China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$860/t

3 weeks ago this was $825

Last winter saw graphite surge as Chinese were out of production, duringt he year this fell back a bit but nothing remotely close to pre winter prices, it should spring board once again this winter to new highs. Added to the winter closures China just hit new targets in NEV sales, first time 2 months of over 600k vehicles and - China's September wholesale sales of passenger NEVs at record 675K units, up 94.9% Y/Y
Demand is higher by significant amounts and the taps are being turned off in China again.

Strummer,
Copper whilst struggling with macro events and trader price direction long term there is not the current grades and mines in place to fulfill the energy transition, one day the actual shortfall in commodity will over take the traders power and it will have to go up in price, hopefully RMM can weather that storm.
This brings me to a reason for why I invest in some shares -
Director with large skin in the game and continues to add - see HZM for why that can be a problem, it bothered me eventually there
Lowest quartile costs - Reason why I had shares in HZM/SAV and have them here, when the proverbial hits the fan only those with the lowest costs can still turn a profit...
Which adds to - Top quality product - not only if prices drop you want to have a material that is better than others - Here the product is of a high standard and low cost to produce, and low cost to convert to higher purity, this is protection against poor markets
High IRRs, high NPV to capex..... many of these things are all in place here. Yes we are annoyed by progress but can see the wood for the trees that there is reason to see that long term it may be better to have waited (albeit in silence) lower infrastructure costs, better ESG credentials from stage 1, graphite pricing higher and in deficit for agreeing offtakes and finance. Unfortunately this relies on another entity progressing and well that has been as glacial as here, however not a bad project to be waiting on as one of the best globally, far more likely seeing that progress than many others.
I am annoyed that timing did not happen faster, I had plans to position myself for other things and that is ruined and I am worse off for that. But, with all the above I am happy that it will progress and given the macro commodity demand for energy transition we will do well.
Pumping on twitter daily, PR promos and telling you what you already know have had little effect on others and in a selling macro market bounces destroyed by sellers. That PR and promo needs to tie in with actual news and progression to highlight it so until then it does not bother me.
I've bought at 1.89 and 1.75p here of late but I am maxed out, at least offsetting some of my worst buys....ha...

fingers crossed......

Errrr..... Funding = dilution

Nothing new there, but dilution to keep lights on is different than funding to realise a greater value that otherwise will not be accessible without said funding... So say you dilute 25% but create 500% extra value, ie you can move closer to NPV and that only possible with building and selling material.
Or 100% of 50mill versus 75% of 500mill...

Looks like they'll provide greater discounts for some.
I might have a top up in me yet.

I never said he was doing a great job, but the fact remains that nearly all the price drop is macro related and tweets every other day and non news updates appear to have made little difference to those around us. It doesn't have the effect people think it will.