RE: ML or SML22 Nov 2022 11:31
I made an assumption that with the Gov 16% involved they may want a special mingin licence.....however the reason I think MB has kept this project below $100m capex is that the Special Mining licence brings a swathe of extra requirements.
What I was inferrign was that because ACP is in negotiations for the Gov to get a % they would be a little more less demanding that you start minign and givent hey are opening up the area with BKT, understand that all mining is likely to fall in behind BKT in that area.
The mining licence is 10 years and renewable again for another 10 years. As long as you have sufficient resources to keep going. So ACP will have to renew at some point to get the full 15 years. So at the moment a single renewal. If they expand time from that resource then they would need a 2nd renewal. As long as you are not in default and still got material to mine no reason to deny.
Also ACP could add a 3rd line and still stay under 20 years. The extra prospecting area would probably have its own mining licence, so by having a series of smaller mines under the $100m keeps them all at normal mining licences as supposed to the stringent special mining licence.
As ACP DFS stage 1 did not plan for hydro stage one I would think the main paved road to Ifakara would perhaps have been on our radar which BKT are now building, now we just need access roads to mine site from Mahenge.
BKT saw significant increases in the there infrastructure costs, 1.materials 2. additional infrastructure not orginal in plan and 3. They have to resettle a lot more people and that was a hugely increased in requirement - building a 297 house village with school etc!
ACP will see savings in infrastruture and associated inflation on those they are not doing now and could save on diesel gens.
They will have higher inflation on what they do build infrastructure wise and plant itself. We will lose some and gain some.
The worst increases for BKT - infrastructure went up 107% (new infrastructure not planned before and costs - makes what ACP save more meaningful) and resettlement 466% (they took on new standards with Equinor or something and maybe with special minign licence had to do a lot more) and contingency 97% (BKT originally only 10% and increased to 12% and greater overall costs push it up - ACP used 15% already mitigating additional contingency if overal capex goes up)
ACP basket price rises, 16%, inflation, infrastructure savings, hydro power costs lower, rail access transport costs down etc has a good chance of coming out flat overall.