Our latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with QuotedData's Edward Marten has just been released. Listen here.
Surfie, no I am not getting paid- read my posting history.
Now your telling me then being pre-clinical with cash issues like in March is a better position than now. Even a t.wat like you can see there is a price to progress disconnect.
Even when you consider one RNS telling us that pk findings demonstrate 1801 can be given to patients is a blinding flag that massive progress has been made since March when we were under the mercy of the MHRA, pre-clinical and looking at years to even get into clinic.
Aye gunner, the same management team that got us to Aus and 1801 into ph1 and secured cash to end of ph1b.
I think they are doing well to be honest- once the ph1a data and ph1b trial design info come in and the price reacts in accordance to it everyone will be singing their praises. Only have to wait 9-13 wks ish for that data not like it's years away now is it.
Leggster, they know that safety is nailed on esp. when the safety committee who are controlling the whole trial recommend a dual ph1a after 3 out of 6 cohorts. So want to pull the price as low as possible for their paymasters before we get the ph1a data.
However, Sar have the habit of putting out surprise RNS's. We also know that they have some early PK data as per this-
"Of particular importance are the pharmacokinetics findings demonstrating that patients will be able to receive SDC-1801 orally once daily. During this next phase of the study, we expect valuable biomarker data to be generated, that will be available upon completion of this part of the trial".
So world leader in Psoriasis is Abbvies Humira but intravanous (injection). Sareum want to distrupt the market with a once daily capsule- no black box warnings as Tyk2 Jak1 is safer, no hospital visits as capsule don't need a bed and a nurse.
DeAer, I said between Dec or Jan, however, the investor meet said q1 so technically your correct. But we could get a RNS earlier afterall we were not expecting multi-ascending trial after 3 cohorts now were we.
Anyhoo, hows your £1.00 buy in doing over at Avavta- told you it's not going happen and it won't.
Gunner, you make out like this hasn't happened before. It happened pre. consolidation when it was below 1p for what seemed an age then it went to nearly 9p.
This time around we are in a much stronger position and we know the ph1a data is due around Dec or Jan additionally the shot are being called by the safety committee not Sareum re. 1801 and they have gone dual ph1a after 3 out of 6 cohorts.
If we had gone the full 6 cohorts then dual ascending then the likely hood of ph1b end would have been mid 2025 but they are now anticipating this to be end of 2024.
So the science is bang on and the price will catch up accordingly on each milestone event the 1st of which will be ph1a data, biomarker data and ph1b trial design.
7.9% maybe for the whole trial. But we are not going beyond ph1b at present as per the last investor meet.
However, we are now a clinical stage bio and deep into ph1a in fact doing a multi trial earlier than expected.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7K_iLm9P890
At 52.00ish as Dr Parker says we don't just push through trials everytime we move a cohort a box is ticked.
We have gone to a dual ph1a single and multi ascending dose after just 3 out of 6 recommended cohorts by the safety committee who are also in full control of the trial, timelines etc. Sareum are just reporters now.
With that in mind the chance of success for safety at least a hell lot more than 7.9% insofar. And as per efficacy the have mentioned pk findings demonstating 1801 in capsule form can be given to patients so have some form of understanding on efficacy prior to ph1b.
Additionally they are gathering biomarker data and you don't normally do this in ph1a so they are making the trial data rich for ph1b which in my opionion is either for a fast-track mid or after ph1b or at a request of whomever they are negotiating as they mention they continue to engage with interested parties.
So very positive to me and the price will catch up after ph1a pk data and ph1b trial design in my opinion as the science always outs.
Don't like twitt or x as it is known now but this shows how the majors are in need.
https://x.com/andrewpannu/status/1714999694366318656?s=20
Just had a chance to listen to the investor meet.
Question if anyone can answer it- would CPF in negotiations to licence Chk1 stop our BOD from buying shares if they knew about it or does 27.5% count as minority and mean they can buy regardless?
All temporary pumy. Massive price to progress disconnect as we are clinical stage now and doing a dual ph1a safety trial earlier than expected and have been told 1801 can be given to patients in capsule form as a treatment.
So anyone researched enough will be loading up at these prices.
DeAar, don't worry not long to go to ph1a results likely end of the year.
I also see you having a go in the Avct board- obviously being paid to deramp.
Some advice for you, your out of your depth there chap, Avct posters are well researched and will rip you a new one. Never going to 100p- they are on the brink of annoucing ph1a results in this quarter. I have 30k shares at avg of 50p so well in profit and have researched them well to know it will be £20 minimum on any takeout.
Funny, I wouldn't dream of using my magic powers to supercharge the price upwards.
Nothing like stating the obvious- Ben is bang on, I feel we are in a similar tempest situation but this will only be triggered as you say via chk1 or in my opinion the ph1a pk data and ph1b trial design.
Mayhem, I have said it before but there is a substantial price to progress disconnect. Just after consolidation we were at over £2 and pre-clinical.
We are now a clinical stage company and doing a dual ph1a trial after just 3 out of 6 cohorts recommended by the safety committee who are in full control of the trial deeming the safety profile of 1801 to be good insofar.
So the question here is we have a once daily capsule in ph1a human clinical trials showing good safety insofar doing a dual trial earlier than expected and Sareum mention signs of early efficacy as follows-
"Of particular importance are the pharmacokinetics findings demonstrating that patients will be able to receive SDC-1801 orally once daily. During this next phase of the study, we expect valuable biomarker data to be generated, that will be available upon completion of this part of the trial".
Now you have to ask yourself why would mention patients being able to receive 1801 in capsule form if safety wasn't being aced and they are mentioning pk data already which means they already have grasp of how good 1801 is.
The pk data will determine all the dosage and trial design for all future trials up to commercialisation it is a biggy and what will drive the upward shareprice momentum once we receive some efficacy data in ph1b trial.
I'm glad you spotted that as well Sad.
Someone took note of this-
SP went from 23 cents to $9.27 in one trading session. A rise of 3000% in one day.
From their 8K...
"Unfortunately, Tempest, like many other biotechnology companies, continues to experience a significant and ongoing dislocation in the trading price of its common stock" and so on...
Goes to show how loads of small bios go under the radar and are undervalued. In my opinion we are massively undervalued as-
- Although there is clinical validation for Tyk2, we are going down the Tyk2/Jak1 route and believe safety and efficacy is greater.
- The safety part is being validated as we move on to a dual ph1a after just 3 cohorts out of the 6 recommended by the safety committee.
- The efficacy part stills needs to be proven, however, they have mentioned ('Of particular importance are the pharmacokinetics findings demonstrating that patients will be able to receive SDC-1801 orally once daily')- so some form of efficacy must be being seen otherwise they wouldn't mention patients and then go on to advise they will get biomarker data so early in ph1a.
Also from a price to progress point of view the price has not really changed since we transformed from a pre-clinical bio with doubts 1801 would make it to clinic to now doing a dual ph1a study within 6 months.
So lets see how things pan out once we get the biomarker info. Pk data and ph1b clinical trial design.
Hotblack, here's your answers-
AGM investor meet-
1:03- Dr Reader very much gunning for partnering early or late clincial and also advising 1801 could be licenced and used in other indications- he has a suspicion that Jak1/Tyk2 pathway could be used in several different therapeutic areas.
AGM satement-
"This week we have seen evidence of the continued commercial interest in the TYK2 class following the announcement by Takeda of plans to acquire Nimbus Lakshmi Inc., a unit of Nimbus Therapeutics for an upfront consideration of US$4 billion. We believe this underscores the great potential of this class".
Let's see the ph1a data, ph1b trial design and see what happens.