Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
The company itself said two weeks for clinical validation. Then self use validation arriving two weeks later. Still, the underlying point of interest for holders and potential holders is whether they can get stuff out in December that will at least begin the transformation they spoke of. My answer would be probably:
1. Ava is on track to be in q4. Small tick up for SP.
2. BAMS has been in evaluation since probably mid november but they were conscious of potential need for final tweaking. So validation could be started and completed in Dec or Jan. Good results and start of prof use sales will lift sp.
3. LFD since they got very good sensitivity with the prototypes the chances are that the small scale evaluation will uncover that no tweaking is required and design freeze, manufacturing technical validation and start of clinical validation could all occur within next two weeks. If technical validation of manufacturing process is a while off and/or they had to tweak prototype and go back and do another initial evaluation then we should still see clinical validation start in January. Big tick up for sp when this all happens.
AS said good progress made with the saliva nut its self evident from the introduction of lower nasal that they cannot be fully confident in getting the saliva out quickly. Also if their are unsolved technical issues we cannot be certain they will be solved. I think we will produce a best in class lfd for starters though just with the lower nasal. So it doesn't change my thesis that this is a great share to hold, albeit the jumps in sp may not start for a few weeks more.
Nice thread. I share the confidence of many posters on the medium and long term. I think we just have to dial our predictions of the short term down and back a bit. My guesstimate:
1. December - AVA filing helps stabilise sp
2. Late December to late Jan great BAMS validation and start of contracts. Help to sp back above 150 initially.
3.mid Jan to early Feb great lfd validation and start of contracts. Pushes the sp to 3 quid and upwards.
4.rest of 21 covid tests sell extremely well and with other diagnostic, partnership and therapy news help propel sp towards 10 pounds.
Agreed. If the timing is off expectations by a few weeks that is a relatively limited issue in the wider scheme of things on a runway of several years of testing. Its likely to be best in class by a distance. Best in class will attract more manufactuers and bigger ramp, still sell all that can be made and come out the other side with many times the mcap in income.
There's a feeling of pharma not being flavour of the month right now. Money being deployed ro other areas - green tech and possibly still covid recovery stocks in light of the vaccine developments
Sounds about balanced and right infinis. Zeremy I think the last drop was not comms so much as delay. When people saw the rns they probably hoped it was tech transfer and instead it is effectively an adapted version of the test that needs initial clinical evaluation and potentially even tweaks and BBI to finish work at its end. I am glad for the rns coming as late as it did. Imagine if it had come a while earlier and had said we have made progress with saliva but we need to do another version. The sp would have really floored. A lot, as you say, down to govmt but from what we know avacta need to take things by the scruff of the neck. For example on BAMS how many companies would have sat around waitimg for govmt action for months on end. Why didnt they send it for testing in early summer in a high prevalance country like Brazil? On the face of it it seems far too passive. A great company never assumes that its partners will do what they are supposed to. It takes matters into its own hands as far as possible.
The givmt trial of mass spec will hit phase 3 in a week and a half, according to its lead, @PerditaB.
Phase 3 is a very massed up long field trial will draw in a lot of income for Avacta. Long term BAMS is likely to put a much higher floor on the sp.
What about the notice on here earlier today? Seemed ro suggest govmt trial clinical validation completed. I tweeted the link. PerditaB said on 21 Nov that they would be onto phase 3 field trials within a month. Tbh had expected avactas own commissioned clinical validation to be complete first cos it started earlier.
According to Perdita B the mass spec clinical validation started on 21st Nov. They planned to start the next phase of field trials within a month. Mass spec runs so quickly its not surprising validation is now done. We were confirmed as part of the initiative via a Rick Body tweet. Map Sciences are producing a mass spec test but I believe they are a bit behind us in the process. I cant imagine us making only 10 per cent royalty from this given we are shepherding it through clinical trials and dealing with manufacturers and contracting. At least half the profits I would have thought
Fantastic stuff. Thanks.
Tbh pcr not so goodbut real problem is lack of proper data on the vaccine which ia being supplied by a company with a record of serious safety infractions. Follow the links from teaboy on twitter and it even talks of risk of women who take the vaccine not being a le to form a placenta - the data is inadequate to rule this possibility and many others out.