Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
People talk about vaccine developments havimg beaten the price down but I would say that's in combination with diminished trust in the company/situation with respect to timelines. The latest RNS saw almost a complete reversal of the half recovery. I think people wake up see an RNS end nov with that title and immediately think its tech transfer. And they read it and perceive that the company may not even make the revised timelines for the LFD they gave in september.
As for Wyndrums point about losing scope for Avacta LFD supply it is a fear but its difficult to quantify how far it relates to the reality. Worse case scenario if they spend a long time producing a bog standard LFD only UK will buy it and probably not for many months after its produced.
That scenario seems highly unlikely though. More realistic is that they spend a long time getting a very good probably best in class test out. Then govmts will buy it straight away even if they have a stockpile of other tests since they will need it very badly for certain scenarios - such as mass testing of areas where need to reduce r quickly is desperate, for flying, events, high risl work scenarios like dentistry and meat packing etc. One best in class test will probably do the job of two average ones due to greater sensitivity. When the saliva test comes out that might be 3 to 1.
The more hopeful scenario is that it gets done with good speed now. Small evaluation could have started and done by early next week. Goes well and leads to rapid TT. Then clinical validation starts by end of next week and for professional use is done within the two week time frame suggested, meaning we have performance figures RNS before Christmas and on good figures Govmts will buy and manufacturers will flock ro produce, leading to further sp bumping rnses from January.
I am not holding out for this hopeful scenario but I do think we will get a slightly inferior version of it - ie it will all happen but a few weeks later than I am hoping. And ultimately I still think that will get us to a tenner plus by the summer. I also think we will getting sp lifting BAMS news within 3 weeks. also think that the company has some big things up its sleeves.
Overall even worst realistic case scenerio is better than neutral for sp medium term and so I am bullish.
Down the road from bbi. Starting 2021. If its Avacta related clearly they - or the purchaser(s) waiting until they have visibility first ie tech transfer, clinical validation and perhaps early indications of demand.
Thats also my point is that, as NYCT shows you can get big rises in a few month s but often takes several more on top to really bake in the fundamentals. If the covid tests are good I wont top slice until I feel its properly baked in. And although therapy trials are always a punt I will hold most for a multi year period - I think this will be a great company even just diagnostics wise.
If you want to make many bags wait til at least all covid development are not just complete but scale of sales priced in. I think that means summer. If we have great tests you will get a tenner by then easily.
As a lth I just want as a baseline is the small scale study done, good results for it and tt transfer before xmas Everything else will then shell like peas. I am 90 per cent bullish and 10 per cent concerned because of past delays and, at times, opaque communication.
My wife is an NHS health professional and was given a box of innova to take home a couple of days ago. Got me thinking about market differentiation. If, as seems almost certain, Avacta produce a swab test that is better performing than others but cannot meet whole demand its use will need to be prioritised. Healthcare professionals can eke out more performance from an innova test and could use it at home. By contrast to get even reasonable performance from at home use by the general population one would need a higher standard test plus an app. Healthcare workers who are more exposed / exposing to infection like dentists and those doing operations, those going on flights, to large in person events etc.. would need the best standard available.
2nd largest holding but still tempted if at this level in the morning.
Yeah too slow but now probably very close. Probably have news of early performance figures, tt, professional use clinical validation with more figures and even a contract prior to Christmas or certainly by early January
So i think before Christmas we will see
Avacta commissioned clinical validation data from Bams and small scale clinical evaluation data for lfd.
Bams govmt trial phase 2 data and phase 3 start
Lfd Tech transfer
Therapy trial filing
5 happenings and probably most or all will spike the sp upwards by a significant amount. Apart from the communications style and delays earlier on what's not to like even in short term?
For next few years one division is going to be a big profit maker and the other a cash guzzler (albeit for good development reasons). So keeping diagnostics fits as well as selling it from that point of view. I would go further and say if AS is thinking about his imaginary conversation with Warren B in a lift he needs to imagine how he would get the xompany to be a Roche or an Abbot in terms of mcap. Quicker if he can ramp the diagnostics as well as the therapy side. He could make strategic acquisition s to help - including maybe a reasonably sized uk diagnostic test manufacturer like ODX or Abingdon.
Agreed. There are lots of people who will hold for medium term of at least 6 months or long term. On significant positive news MMs will have to drive the price up and up as the waves of buyers far outweigh those prepared to buy