Member Info for Adw198

Yeah a raise must be on the cards in the medium term as we’re years off production, even if it all goes to (the revised) plan. And that’s not even to pay fund production, just to keep the lights on as feasibility studies aren’t cheap.
Hopefully DOID are messing around to drive the price down ahead of a takeover. Given what they could get the whole thing for it does make you wonder why they’d pay $50m for 51% of KSK

Shocking result that. So DOID won’t sign up until the bank (which hasn’t yet been appointed) approve a revised feasibility study (which hasn’t yet been completed) and in the meantime Asiamet aren’t free to speak to any other potential partners. But we are free to continue to solely pay for the resource expansion drilling programme.

It’s disgraceful that holidays and covid were blamed when clearly DOID weren’t ever even close.

The intellectual gymnastics is claiming the longer we go without any updates, the more confident one can be about a deal happening. It takes some tortured logic in my view to see it like that.

Datron, are you saying DOID want the project debt in place prior to signing? I think that might indeed be the case and part of the reason it’s not completed yet. Or possibly the permit secured (TM has previously said banks wouldn’t lend until that’s secured)

Either way when the company themselves give upto 90days and after 115 it’s not complete, it’s very difficult to regard that delay as positive. You said you expect an RNS Monday but if there’s not one will be more confident it will complete - there’s no right or wrong but that does take some intellectual gymnastics :)

“The longer it takes, the less I am concerned” is indeed a particular optimistic take :)

I have no idea how long these should take, but if the 2 entities allow themselves 90days and give a series of extremely bullish updates about that timeframe, then a late notice update they’re behind followed by a month of complete silence isn’t positive for me. Ultimately I still agree the deal gets done though.

Good luck all

I think if / when the deal is complete they’ll announce that straight away, as although it’s obviously not ideal timing at least it’ll shore up the price - which otherwise could drop like other stocks.

Pretty sure they’ll again blame Covid for these delays and Indonesia is in the peak of Omicron now, but it’s still stretching a bit given everything was apparently on track as of 22nd December.

The longer is goes the more concerning it becomes, but I’m not too worried given DOID are in for 15% either way and thus have extra motivation to complete. Plus the drilling since the HOA has all been positive. Hopefully we just get a deal done RNS anyday, followed by all the other positive updates…

Aside from the due diligence. which to some extent is out of our hands, we must be overdue the latest set of drilling results. Wouldn’t surprise me if they’re sitting on them a bit to avoid having to update the current position with DOID.

The updated feasibility study is probably due now too, and I think the plan (!) was to drill Beutong Q2. Lots of news flow to come…

I suppose the challenge is that it’s not their timeline is it, it’s for DOID to be satisfied. And I’m not sure what motivation they have to rush given they’ve got an exclusivity whilst the resource is further proved up.

I’m keen to know if the terms around the SPA have been provisionally agreed, the tranches didn’t seem that straightforward to document. Similarly I thought there was a slight discrepancy between the HOA RNS which said DOID would get the work unless commercially unreasonable not to give it them and one of the interviews which said the work would all be tendered.

@the swan - I enjoyed your lighthearted analogy, although I’d enjoy a (1 sided )exclusivity within a relationship even more :)

And what’s the benefit to Asiamet of the exclusivity? I’m not saying it’s a bad idea just trying to understand the benefits, beyond the fact is shows a cooperative approach. Every additional successful drill makes the HOA more appealing for DOID and continues to be done entirely at our cost.

I note the HOA RNS spoke of “up to 90 days” and todays RNS subtlety changed that language to say it was an “initial 90days”.

Not a huge surprise and nothing to think it’s not going to happen but the excuses are pretty lame given the pre Christmas RNS said everything was on schedule.

“All workstreams are advancing to plan and we look forward to completing on this major milestone early in the new year”

Suddenly Covid and holidays took hold :)

They sort of already have given they bought 15% of the company last August. I do agree the DD is something of a cover story though, surely they’d already done a lot of prior to the £6m (think it about that?) investment, plus more ahead of the HOA.

Not sure re the permit - I thought they needed / wanted to know the footprint before applying and that doesn’t seem resolved yet. Nothing is happening quickly, but I remain confident because of the assets

So when they’ve paid the first $10million they own 10% of KSK. So presumably they then pay 10% of BKZ costs? If so it suits them to delay.

If they’re paying $10m for value engineering which can’t cost even a fraction of that, what happens then to the rest of the money. TM has alluded it can go towards the cost but presumably it’ll need ringfencing and not towards Beautong?

And how do you arrange finance if the liability isn’t clear, ie if the parties collectively arrange to borrow $100m who signs for what percentage? I can’t see how that can be finalised when the ownership isn’t resolved.

My own guess is it’s not due diligence that’s caused the delay it’s the wording behind the high level HOA. I don’t think lawyers would be comfortable with a fluid agreement.

One thing I find interesting about the apparent deal is how/when DOID will assume the 51%. I appreciate it’s staged but until they’ve paid the 5 tranches they don’t own half - so what happens in the interim with things like the exploration costs at BKZ. And how do both parties apply for finance when that’s not yet resolved?

I agree the risk / reward ratios are beginning to make a takeover look better for DOID, but buying the company and then funding the drill 100% takes quite alot of capital, especially if they were then fully responsible for Beatong too, also noting they don’t have copper experience.

I think the deal will happen as per the HOA, I think it’s probably just the wording around the SPA, I can’t see how much DD they need to do - they bought 15% in August and then had another few months before the HOA were announced so they must know what they’re getting.

Asiamet don’t have a good record on timelines and I think TM is often guilty of telling the market what he thinks it wants to hear rather than the more accurate position. His current estimate for being in production is is early 2 half of the year and that’s not going to be the case given they haven’t even got the plan drafted yet, let alone the finance.

I also wonder if another factor it’s not sorted yet is because DOID might just be letting us further prove up BKZ. They aren’t responsible for any of these costs until they start making the tranches so it’s the ultimate free bet at the moment.

Hi RL_Axe - unless I’ve read it incorrectly they did infact announce revenue for the first 4 months of this year (July - October) and it was only €3m. Very underwhelming.

€3m revenue July - October was less than I thought given prices. Its not going to do much to the cash balance is it?

Yes no way this is anything other than terrible news. Best case a 3 month delay to the new revenue…worst case no approval, which must now be considered more likely than pre the RNS. The new timeline also complicates it for those who didn’t want to be on Nasdaq. Anyone who (like me) topped up on ydays fall must feel pretty unlucky!

Informative and positive interview with Tony has been released https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XmphkfV1TcY
It clarifies Delta are in for 51% of the Capex, as opposed to the 26% that was mentioned here yday.

Thanks both. I must admit that was my initial understanding but others have told me that they’ll need to fund 51% thereafter. It’s not clear from the RNS though.