Member Info for Adw198

Can anyone help…I’m trying to find the details of the drilling that was done last year at BKM, but can’t seem to find anything? Lots of BKZ updates but my understanding is the FS will only be done on BKM so keen to understand whether they’ll be an uplift in the projected returns. Thanks

He may well have thought that and may well still be right - I wouldn’t hold that against him. I do however need an explanation as to why every single milestone from their November presentation has been missed. I don’t know how long it takes to get debt arranged, but he should. He either didn’t know a bank would want an updated feasibility study or he did and misled us. I’m honestly not sure which is worse!

I think copper may have actually dropped since November - it was on a sustained run of over 4p.
I think you’re broadly right on what the HOA values KSK at, since when the resource has grown. But that deal hasn’t completed and doesn’t look like doing so it’s not a concrete starting point. However, hopefully DOID can see at todays values they’ll be getting a great deal compared to what they *provisionally* thought was good in November. Personally I’m completely sceptical about what’s going on, the RNS’s are full of holes/changing accounts.

Fingers crossed the value underground rescues us.

I don’t think we can completely rule out 3 because the due diligence was to confirm the deal and they’ve seemingly backtracked away, so it’s speculation as to why isn’t it. Don’t forget they had their own consultants review it first, following which DOID sought further help from the ITE.

£25m is todays value, I can’t them bidding at todays value, surely it would need a significant premium from this low? I think their initial investment was circa 2.20 and I could see them being prepared to pay that and shareholders accepting given the apparent lack of alternatives (5 interested partners last August became 2 serious ones)

I’m one of those who has a strong view the HOA won’t be happening as announced, but I suppose DOID have probably intimated they’re just considered their options and will discuss further.

“The Company and DOID are advancing discussions on a preferred path for consolidating the strategic partnership between both companies” from the RNS would cover this.

Realistically they’d be mad to sign up to those terms, hence the change in the story that DD completed the deal.

I see 3 main options from here, assessed in likelihood order.

1. Full takeover offer. On the assumption DOID we’re happy (as they formally announced) with the DD the risk is now less than when they signed the HOA as closer to funding and Asiamet much cheaper. Plus the reward higher due to BKZ.

2. A new agreement whereby DOID take a bigger % of KSK (similar logic to above) and this would also resolve Asiamets funding gap.

3. They’re not interesting in a partnership at this stage. This would need to be communicated to the market and would assume they weren’t happy with the diligence.

As to when any of the 3 will play out my guess is after the revised feasibility study and further ITE /bank review which will strengthen their confidence further. Commercially however they might think it’s worth a crack now at the low levels.

What I find poor is as recently as November Asiamet we’re targeting funding being in place by now. Did they not realise they’d need to do a revised feasibility study or did they mislead about this?

And what do you think the RNS will say? You were pretty vocal about my own prediction of a DOID takeover for less than we hoped so I’m interested to hear your own analysis

Yes, they’ll either renegotiate or buy the lot. It’s clear the “DD completes the deal” narrative was rubbish, would be interesting to know when the company and PR machine knew that .

I think it’s implied both parties can now buy / sell shares again - hopefully DOID start buying given it’s substantially cheaper and more advanced than their previous purchase at 2.20

I’m not aware of any deadline. The company have said they expect DOIDs DD to complete by the end of June. They’ve previously said once DD is finished the deal completes. However, on a practical level I think it’s very unlikely these 2 things will happen in unison and therefore don’t think it’ll happen this month. Even if the banks ITE says it looks ok DOID will need to sign it off internally and produce the funds. And all this presumes DOID want to progress whilst a revised feasibility study is being finalised which personally I don’t think is likely.

I suspect we’ll get an announcement saying it’s all looking good but they just need x, y or z and then they’ll sign - which buys them more time to let the bank review the updated feasibility study and of course monitor the macro environment. If / when the revised feasibility study is considered bankable then the risk reward equation for DOID as these levels would make a full offer very appealing.

For transparency I continue to hold and might try for some more at these levels but I’m well under with an average of 2.50ish. Can’t say I’m not nervous though…

If you were a DOID shareholder you’d probably have mixed feelings at paying $50m for 51% an asset from a company with an MCAP of $31m

@bonkers - I’m happy to admit I don’t know how long these takes. But the company and TM should do and when they issue presentations like they did in November and fail - by a mile - to hit literally every singe timeline then they deserve criticism. Macro events are different and obviously beyond his control.

Squeaky bum time! Incredible to think we’re lower than after the AE cancelled deal - despite the potential partnership, further proven assets and price of copper. wish i could add!

Are you still holding Leem? If so can I ask why given you think it’s going to 1p?

The latest presentation appears particularly vague about the separation of the 2 (apparently distinct) workstreams in terms of DOIDs DD competing and the broader review of the (incomplete) feasibility study.

This is what we were told in March

“The bank will appoint an ITE to undertake an independent review of the BKM copper project feasibility study to ensure it meets their required standards for debt financing. The bank's ITE review of the feasibility study will conclude the technical diligence process for DOID.”

The video suggests ARS / DOID choose the ITE and that a decision will be made based on “project execution plans”, which itself assumes a final decision has been made on the footprint (in which case have permits been secured?)

Does anyone here still think the deal will complete in June, ie prior to the ITE review of the actual updated plan as opposed to the 2019 version? Given DOID have essentially made clear they want debt secured ahead of investing, personally I think that’s very unlikely. After waiting 7+months it would be a weird time to pay the £ whilst experts are assessing the bankability of the actual plan.

Perhaps one of the posters who pretends to have a hotline to the Investor Relations team could clarify?

Informative interview and some really positive translation into figures what the BKZ resource upgrade means.

I’m much less impressed with the DD update as it sounds like DOID want the bank to confirm the debt piece before signing. We’ve previously been assured that was a separate matter but Tony confirms the bank will be reviewing the work done to date and the work New Pro are currently doing, ie the updated feasibility study. Quite possible I misunderstood that part so other views definitely welcome!

Thanks Leem. Sounds like you think the same as me - it’ll rise not drop from here.

Hi Leem
Same question I always ask people who don’t think a share will rise - are you invested and if so, why?

Hi 2905johnb

You told us the company had told you the ITE review was complete and into review with DOID and the bank, whereas the RNS says it’s not finished yet. So I’m keen to understand whether the company were lying to you, or you were lying to us?
Could you clarify exactly what you were told and by whom?

Swan / Sasha, could you let us know what the company have privately briefed you this week?

It’s not coming any day - the IR who is hardly renowned for downplaying sentiment / expectations has confirmed the ITE hasn’t finished yet. Given we’ve also been guided how elongated / formal the DOID sign off is for diligence / finance then it seems exceptionally unlikely it’ll be this month.And all that is on the assumption the diligence goes well, which given the wider evidence doesn’t necessarily seem a shoe in.

I’d be happy enough with the twice delayed BKZ resource update this month

Hopefully that’s the seller gone, but the timing is certainly unsettling. Squeaky bum time but I’m still confident.