Member Info for Adw198

Thanks both. I still don’t understand why the price going to near the offer price means a no vote is almost guaranteed. If that’s what you think though, is it fair to assume you believe *if* it t doesn’t get to near the offer the price a Yes vote is much more likely?

I don’t see it going higher than the offer price unless someone offers higher so it’s a slightly false premise from my own perspective.

People who think it will go to the levels you speculate won’t be voting Yes will they? So I don’t see why it going close to the offer price would change anyone’s mind on how to vote - only on whether to cash out.

For the record I won’t be selling unless there’s reason to think a Yes vote is assured (which I don’t think is clear / likely). Theres not even a decision for me to make at these levels when I know the worst case for me is an extra 5%.

Hi, why would the SP being close to the offer price mean it’s less likely to be voted through?

Who would change their mind and why?

Once it gets close to the offer price I suspect plenty will head for the exit because the easy 5% (worst case ) profit will have gone, and the equation then becomes hoping for a counter bid or making your money work elsewhere.

Id still hold because I hope for a higher bid but fair to note the risk reward equation does change if offered 13.50 now.

If you think you can do better than a worst case of 5% + with the potential upside of further bids that’s fine. There’s certainly some truth in the fact it’s frustrating to see other goldies motor along whilst we’re hemmed in upto 13.50p. Hopefully the overdue drilling results and Q4 update provide more bait for other offers.

I’m happy to hold and take an easy uplift or hopefully significant one.

Nothing constructive to SHB holders telling us about another share you’ve switched to. Do you tell the SRB board about your views on SHG too?

Blatant attempt to talk people into following you. Given it a rest

the srb board would be a good place for that bull**** prediction pedro

if the bid had come from an outsider then the speculation about skeletons etc would be very valid. but the bid has come from a current board member who will fully appraised of risks and opportunities. the main (indeed only) reasons for accepting the bid were a) the fact gold is currently at an ath and b) the lack of liquidity that wouldn’t allow large holders (such as patel) to exit.

regarding gold, well the company were extremely bullish about where gold is heading and made a very deliberate and confident decision not to hedge any of it. so i find it completely disingenuous to then quote the gold price as if we’re somehow at the top of a wave and cashing out on a high.

regarding the liquidity …well if the implication is large holders like the patels wanted out then it’s an odd move to infact buy the whole thing instead!

to me it seems they’re just thinking we can perhaps get this on the cheap and worst case we flush out an offer that gives us our cash quickly. fair play to patel but why on earth is everyone else rolling over? if it’s really fair then explain why - the rns sounded like it was drafted on behalf of the bidco not shanta, same with his half ****d attempt at a presentation.

i share the views of publican that it either goes for more or 13.65p is pretty much fair value. but either way it shows what a casino aim is, rigged against pis. i don’t know enough about the rules but i’m concerned whether some of the previous comments around finding eric’s replacement were accurate - i very much doubt they’ve been recruiting as we were told given this kicked off in june. i also wonder if 13.50 was the first and best bid, ie did our board even try to negotiate?

I hope you’re right mate!

Thanks GGG.

Don’t get me wrong I’m also super bullish i just think we need to be careful re the net cash position. Eg public am saying gold is now $2k is a bit rampy given it was in the $1800s for the first part of the quarter.

Debt will have reduce by about a $1m more this quarter than it did last - that’s my point.

“Balance sheet deleveraging with net debt of US$4.9 million ("m"), down 44% from US$8.7 m in Q2;”

So they paid off $3.8m last quarter leaving $4.9m net debt. What makes people so confident we’ll be debt free by year end ? Saying they paid off debt doesn’t really answer it!

Hi GGG, really enjoy your post, tip analysis.

But can. I ask what makes you say we’ll be adding $10m per quarter? We were miles off that last quarter weren’t we.

No, they won’t be to the same elevated levels that generated the $9m. The company themselves accepted this.

Pretty tortured logic to claim £19m isn’t alot against £23m in the bank. Especially if it wasn’t expected / factored in to the investment case.

The phrase used for acquisitions was having a “healthy appetite” for them. I’ve got a healthy appetite for caviar but Im not having it r for dinner. :)

@buzz thanks for such a transparent and mature reply - often lacking on these boards. I do still agree with @mrc tho that *if* one didn’t know about the £19m it’s a massive material change to the valuation / prospects but each to their own.

If you bought at 58p can I ask if you were previously aware of the £19m cash coming out of the company? And if not what value you think that takes off the company?

I held here until yday, managing to cash out in the 60s. I’m actually surprised it’s not bombed worse than this - despite the insane gas prices we still didn’t make anything in real terms. But the big issue is the £19m decommissioning. Whether or not it was poor research on my part, I had no idea that was a liability - and I don’t recall anyone discussing it either. It blows everything else out of the water really, and completely undermines the cash position that I thought gave great security here. I honestly don’t know how you’d make an investment case from here given we need inflated gas prices just to scramble to break even. Fair enough there’s a few potential updates re the drilling and deals but that’s pretty speculative and hard to assign value to. I might get back involved down the line but can’t see this going anywhere for a while and it’s undermined my faith in the company.

@marine - really appreciate the posts, keep them coming. Realise nobody has a crystal ball but you’ve called this spot on over the last few weeks, all delivered without hyperbole. Given the higher lows is not fair to expect higher highs, ie breaking 80p this time? Thanks

I think a reasonable FS based upon copper being on the up to offset the increased costs might lead to DOID taking the whole asset / company. 2p seems a reasonable target for that. That’s what I’m sticking around for. Which would be a loss but a lesson for me.

The risk remains nobody fancies the asset though.

Broadly correct as I see it too - obviously it depends on the price if/when they exercise their right to buy the next $5m. Car crash really.

I think they paid about £6m for their initial 15%.