Member Info for Adw198

Agreed - my hope / expectation is we start moving on some good drilling news and continue the momentum as the financials spell out the fcf. Definitely seems to be a seller around, but easy hold for me.

@T073

I’ve enjoyed reading your contributions - from a self interest perspective I’d always rather someone research / spell out the downside. These boards tend to be echo chambers, because obviously most contributors are invested and thus commentating from a rose tinted perspective and / or talking their own book.

That said, I am wary of someone appearing out of the blue and then posting so much in a short burst. With that in mind, is there a reason you’ve decided to start posting having been invested for so long?

Whatever your motivation (fwiw I believe you) you’ve made some very fair points, without much rebuttal. If bullish investors could easily prove you wrong, they would.

My own worry beads are the firstly Accounts payable. Probably my own lack of understanding but why isn’t this huge number factored in to discussions around net debt / cash?

Next, I don’t like the tendency to over promise regarding production. Eg SL gave an interview a few weeks ago referencing 2000-2100oz weekly production. 2 weeks later he drops a quarter2 RNS with circa 25% less than that (19k in the quarter) which then leads to an underwhelmed / disappointed market. So when were the weekly periods he quoted - was it just the last week in June? Did he tell an explicit lie, no - but personally I trust him less now.

AISC - if the first quarter averaged $700 and year guidance remains at $1100-1200 then the remaining quarters must be coming in over $1200. Eg I fully expect the Q2 financials to be above $1200 which is something most posters fcf calculations don’t consider. It’s not a huge thing the underlying principle that we’ll be spitting out cash remains. I suspect the full year guidance won’t be met which again isn’t even problematic from an investment case perspective, but similarly will lead to a disappointed market reaction.

I’m still the most confident / relaxed about any share I’ve ever owned because there are simply too many potential catalysts.

Overground satellite deposits in Segilola

Underground at Segilola

Douta drilling

Lithium drilling

I find almost impossible that none of the above will return anything positive this year. I also think gold hasn’t topped out yet but again let’s say I’m wrong and it crashes 20% from here - we’re still producing a lot of cash. Other than the execution risk of a new miner (in Nigeria) we’ll still spit out enough cash to cover the MCAP.

Now imagine we do get positive news on some of those catalysts and / or gold holds or even kicks on again. This could genuinely be multiples pretty quickly.

Some fabulous analysis and discussion - thanks all.

I really hope they avoid the usual over promise under deliver AIM style on the figures - there’s no reason we need to do so as the numbers here are so attractive. Failing to hit guidance on a few occasions just sucks confidence away. If we end up anywhere over 85k this year then we’ll be raking it in and delivering great numbers.

Hopefully we can get some more Lithium promise up next, and wouldn’t it be nice to get the Douta PFS out just as we commence an interest cutting cycle. And surely it’s just a case of how long rather if we can extend mine life in Nigeria

There appears to be a seller around but I’m super relaxed here.

@number 23 If you’re going to sling mud then at least be accurate. I’m not shorting this, I don’t know how having never shorted anything! I did say I would if it was easy because ultimately I think the next raise will be on the back of another missed revenue target and will take us much lower. Sensible views can be exchanged about a) the likelihood and b) impact of how that’ll be received and I’d respectfully disagree that it’s not that important. If they exceed it I’d regard that as a massive positive so I’m being fair to both sides of the coin.

You’ll also note I’ve said on both sites that I might buy on no news but only for a spike. I’m not invested so able to be very objective - I appreciate that jars with those talking their books.

I agree with @BBN that nothing said on these boards (certainly by me!) will make any difference to the SP. I remain very interested in this stock. Having been corrected on a couple of points earlier I certainly wouldn’t brave a short, but I do stand by analysis - whilst acknowledging it might be wrong.

Thanks BBN, som excellent analysis and counter points as ever.

I’m certainly rooting for the company, hence keeping a close eye on it and you’ve given me plenty to digest / reflect on. I wish they’d downgraded revenue to something (I felt) was reasonable as it just feels like bad news is locked in now, but perhaps that was me hoping for a better re-entry!

Ah yes good point on Q2 production being a small % of the years plan.

Agree liquidity an issue, it put me off until a couple of weeks ago but at some point the value will out. I’d wondered if it was because AIM punters seem more interested in the next big thing than a company already producing, but that’s what I don’t get because we’ve ALSO got the chance of great upside in 3 places (Existing mine extensions, Senegal, Lithium).

Personally I think Gold will be higher for longer, but as you say that is a fair risk to note.

@harchris

I’m currently on the sidelines having bailed before the results / placing as I was nervous it would play out that way.

I’ve had a good luck and the big issue is getting the revenues going…

Confirmed revenues (taken from the September 23 and recent prelims RNS)

23 H1 - £1.2m (0.8m products, £0.4m services)

23 H2 - £1m

24 H1 - £1.0m - £1.3m

24 H2 - forecast to be at least £5.1m, partly justified because of their confidence in the pipeline (this makes me sceptical)

In the September RNS they said services related sales of up to £2.5 million have already been made for revenues in future periods.

More recently they referenced a total of c.40% of FY24 market expectations for revenue already contracted year to date. Im unsure whether the 40% includes the £1m already accounted for in H1?

Generally it’s all a bit unclear which revenue is being recognised in which period, eg where does the £1.2m Bioview money sit - presumably across several periods? It was listed under Product in the prelims, implying the September reference to £2.5m in services was other revenue which would be positive. Again, how much of the £2.5m has already been recognised?

The bigger the contract, the longer time it takes to do the work and the longer the wait to be paid it seems. Not rocket science but it highlights why they probably need to pull a monster rabbit out of the hat to get revenues booked in for H2. Even if they land a £1m contract tomorrow when is the money landing?

If, like me, you don’t think it’s credible, let alone likely, that they hit those numbers then they’ll have to tell the

market, probably in advance. That will impact the forecast runway, as will the fact they raised £1.5m less than hoped. Going back to the market in these circumstances won’t be pretty.

It’s also unclear to me what ongoing expenditure would be needed to allow us to perform our work for these large services contracts and thus what profits / margins could look like.

It’s a great shame there doesn’t yet appear to be a substantial market for our offerings as it sounds like great science.

If it drifts on no news I’ll probably have a punt because I do fully expect further contracts and we know it can really spike when it does.

Good luck either way

Thanks Chris, more top notch analysis.

One thing that stuck me was that despite the super low AISC for the first quarter, they didn’t change the forecast guidance for full year. That would imply that at least some of the remain quarters would infact be above the $1100-$1200 range, as otherwise we wouldn’t end up there. Or am I missing something?

I’m almost trying to make a bear case / figure out what I’m missing because this seems a bit too good to be true!

Thanks Chris, that’s even better. This could / should seriously re rate, it looks a no brainer to just churn out cash - and hopefully gold hasn’t peaked yet either. Eye watering stuff!

The free cash we’ll be spitting out in Nigeria, before we even consider mine life extension there, along with a potential from Senegal and Lithium makes this an exceptional company.

Could some clarify the MCAP though, it’s listed here as circa £100m and £170m on the other site. I’m guessing the latter figure includes the Canadian listing and is thus more accurate? Thanks

Thanks for sharing smallholding, I managed to get out with just a small loss before it crashed.

I daresay they’ll probably appeal and sort it out, but I can’t see AA committing to a drill in the meantime, so it’s largely about Botswana now. I’m sure it’ll bounce hard but the company appear untrustworthy and unprofessional.

Just because you lost money here mate, no need to obsess about the stock with these silly sarcastic posts. Whereas you try to portray yourself as some kind of defender who against rampers, this is just childish, bitter and unhelpful.

I think they’ll struggle to get away to be honest, not unless there’s news. The main argument for taking apart appears to be to help the company - who obviously couldn’t raise this elsewhere.

The company line was no placing. Is your contention he was privy to inside information, but then came on here saying the opposite?

I don’t know who you think you’re representing by getting so riled by his diagrams .

@takenorisk

Jesus how many times do you need to post the same point. You lost a bit of money here all by yourself, nothing to do with Seis. Being wrong about something like the drilling and placing doesn’t make someone a lair. On both counts the company themselves said the same thing so if you want to complain anyone goto the company.

They were explicit that there was a funding gap, against their own projections. People complaining they’re plugged that gap should outline why they fell misled.

@tomhuk

Appreciate the measured reply and apologies if it came across I was referencing you in the big bite comment.

I don’t know why you think the cash runway forecast was inaccurate? They didn’t say they wouldn’t raise until then.

@tomhuk

Why are you angry at the cash forecast to Q2 25?

This seems a common reaction and I’m struggling to follow the logic?

Also, anyone who slates Bigbitenow is an aftertiming prick. He gave a very well researched opinion and outlined his logic. Was he wrong on the aspect beyond his knowledge / control - yes. But who isn’t?

Thanks Bigbite, I’m a big fan of your analysis both here and on Twitter.

I’m currently on the sidelines because I am one of those worried about the revenue forecast not being on track and us getting an update to that effect, which would obviously put some stress on the cash runway. In such a scenario I don’t know how long they’d want to wait for a raise, so whilst there’s not an immediate need companies don’t usually leave it late, especially if coupled with a negative trading update.

I really like the prospects here and will definitely be back, I just can’t help but feel something is brewing with the results date being later than usual and still not formally announced.

Fully admit I’m speculating on the revenue point, I’m just mindful of the deals being fairly small and the bigger AZ one presumably rolling into next year. Hopefully not long to find out!

@fulmar - you’ve lost me mate, no idea why you’re bringing Asiamet into it?!

You seem quite triggered by me asking when the market got updated on the October drilling that was apparently going to run from October 21st to Christmas, but infact was just a single hole.

I’m alright, I’m in under the placing but I can see why you don’t want any critical thinking on here, you must be well underwater. But thanks for the advice 👍